Collingwood 2021 Season Preview

COLLINGWOOD 2021 SEASON PREVIEW

HERALD SUN

The Pies couldn’t kick a goal in 2020, lost the prelim, and then backed that up with a horror trade period — but there is cause for optimism in the Collingwood camp.

A lot will rest on Brodie Grundy’s broad shoulders in 2021. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

After a disastrous trade period, all eyes will be on Collingwood to see how it responds in 2021.

With some promising draftees added into the mix – but the losses of Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips from the Magpies’ starting 22 – the pressure will be right on Nathan Buckley’s men.

Here’s who needs to stand up and be counted this season.

INS: Oliver Henry (pick No. 17), Finlay Macrae (pick No. 19), Reef McInnes (pick No. 23), Caleb Poulter (pick No. 30), Liam McMahon (pick No. 31), Beau McCreery (pick No. 44), Isaac Chugg (rookie list)

OUTS: Adam Treloar (WB), Jaidyn Stephenson (NM), Atu Bosenavulagi (NM), Tom Phillips (Haw), Dayne Beams (retired), Tim Broomhead (delisted), Lynden Dunn (retired), Ben Reid (retired), Matthew Scharenberg (delisted), Travis Varcoe (retired)

The pressure will be right on Nathan Buckley and Collingwood in 2021. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

COACH STATUS

 2021 will be the final year of Nathan Buckley’s contract.

It once seemed a lock he would win a new deal, although after a tumultuous trade period that outraged many Magpie fans, he wouldn’t want a bad start to the new season.

In 2018, his Magpies came within 100 seconds of winning the flag.

In 2019, they lost the preliminary final by a kick and last year they were mauled by Geelong in a semi-final.

They’re still around the mark, but Buckley needs a good year.

The anger will only grow if the Pies struggle in 2021.

Brody Mihocek will be without Jaidyn Stephenson in attack next season after the young Magpie was traded to North Melbourne. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

GAME PLAN

The Magpies were very defensively minded in 2020.

It did, however, appear to come at the expense of their attacking flair which had served them well in the past.

They ranked the lowest within the top eight for scoring and 13th overall for 2020, averaging just 57 points per game.

Maybe we put that down to the COVID season.

Regardless, they must find more avenues to goal, and they need to do this without Jaidyn Stephenson, who was one of their main attacking weapons.

They have a poor forward structure and no consistent goalscoring options.

We also know they’re a high volume team.

They were ranked No. 1 for disposals in 2020 and were happy to go by hand with the second-lowest kick-to-handball ratio.

Will the loss of ball magnet Adam Treloar hurt them in this area?

Tom Phillips was offloaded to Hawthorn.

Adam Treloar was sent to the Western Bulldogs.

TRADE TABLE REPORT

It has been well documented that Collingwood had a nightmare of a trade period.

The anger among the Magpie Army was palpable when Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tom Phillips and Atu Bosenavulagi were all pushed out the door.

The club said it was in desperate need of salary cap relief, so it must rankle with fans that the club will still pay $1.5 million of Treloar’s wage over the next five years to play for the Western Bulldogs.

It makes the first-round clash between the two clubs a must-watch event.

Following the trade debacle, only a strong result at the draft would soothe some of the discontent, and fortunately for the Magpies they won the PR battle here, grabbing five kids in the first 31 picks.

None of these players are proven yet, so the jury remains out on just how Collingwood managed its list to close out 2020.

New Collingwood draftees Reef McInnes, Finlay Macrae, Liam McMahon and Oliver Henry will be striving for senior action this season.

THEIR 2020 DRAFT HAUL

The Woods were thrilled with their draft haul.

While the club would love all its draftees to make a quick impact, most are fairly raw and will need time to develop.

Although, 19-year-old Beau McCreery – taken at pick No. 44 – is tipped to play straight away as a pressure forward.

The speedster Reef McInnes – a Pies academy member – will spend the summer building up his tank as his endurance is lacking.

They also went with proven bloodlines taking Oliver Henry (pick No. 17) – brother of Geelong’s Jack – and Finlay Macrae (pick No. 19), whose brother Jackson is an established Bulldog.

Could we see Darcy Moore make a switch up forward? Picture: Michael Klein

PLAYERS THEY CAN REINVENT

It is undoubtedly robbing Peter to pay Paul, but will the Magpies go all in on Darcy Moore as a forward in 2021?

It may seem a ludicrous suggestion – he is a gun defender and was the All-Australian centre half-back in 2020.

But the fact remains that this Collingwood side struggles to kick goals.

And that was before they lost Stephenson during the trade period.

Their forward set-up remains the biggest issue for them.

It would certainly be a ballsy move coming off the year he has had down back.

The other dilemma facing Buckley is what to do with Jordan De Goey.

He has the traits and attributes of Dustin Martin in that he can have centre bounce impact and float forward to become a matchwinning goalkicker.

But can they turn him into a more permanent onballer to replace Treloar?

The return of Steele Sidebottom, who left the Queensland hubs for the birth of his daughter, gives them greater flexibility in this area.

Tyler Brown

Callum Brown

READY TO TAKE THE NEXT STEP 

In 2020, it was Josh Daicos who took the next step.

As for 2021, we’re backing the Brown brothers – Callum and Tyler – to follow suit.

We have both players in their best 22 and we expect them to get more time in the engine room in 2021.

We’d also love to see more of Will Kelly in 2021.

The son of Magpies premiership player Craig Kelly kicked a goal with his first kick on debut this season, but in the same game he dislocated his elbow and missed the remainder of the season.

It’s now or never for Brayden Sier. Stamp himself as a regular, or look for another club.

BEST 22 FOR NEXT SEASON

B: Brayden Maynard, Jordan Roughead, Isaac Quaynor

HB: Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp

C: Steele Sidebottom, Taylor Adams, Josh Daicos

HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Jamie Elliott

F: Jordan De Goey, Mason Cox, Callum Brown

R: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Brayden Sier

Int: Will Kelly, John Noble, Chris Mayne, Tyler Brown

Emg: Josh Thomas, Levi Greenwood, Jack Madgen

CHAMPION DATA SAYS

Good: The Pies conceded the fifth-fewest amount of points of any side across the competition. They also conceded a score from just 39 per cent of their oppositions inside 50 entries – ranked seventh defensively.

Bad: Ball use going inside 50 was an issue, ranked 16th for scoring once inside 50 and 17th at generating a mark from a kick going inside 50.

FINISH THE LAST FIVE YEARS

2016 12th, 2017 13th, 2018 2nd (grand final loss), 2019 4th (preliminary final loss), 2020 8th (semi-final loss) 

TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS

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The Roar: Collingwood 2020 Season Preview

The Roar - Cameron Rose

AFL 2020 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v FOOTSCRAY Time & Place: Friday March 20, 7:50pm EDT Docklands TV: 7mate 7:30pm Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 15 Max 22 Chance of rain: 30% <1mm Wind: W 21kph Betting: Collingwood $1.75 Footscray $2.08

The Pies were one errant Dom Sheed kick from winning a flag in 2018, and a Taylor Adams snap that just needed to be a few centimetres straighter from a grand final last season.

Things didn’t fall their way at the end in either of those matches, but on both occasions they were five goals down earlier in the game so only have themselves to blame.

What is in store for the Magpies in 2020, after almost going under the radar in the lead-up?

Collingwood’s best 25
B: John Noble, Jordan Roughead, Brayden Maynard
HB: Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar, Tom Phillips
HF: Josh Thomas, Brody Mihocek, Jordan de Goey
F: Jaidyn Stephenson, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott
Int: Chris Mayne, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Callum Brown, Travis Varcoe
Em: Darcy Cameron, Ben Reid, Brayden Sier

Out of the club go Tyson Goldsack and Daniel Wells to retirement, while James Aish and Ben Crocker have ended up elsewhere in the AFL.

Alongside some draftees, Darcy Cameron crosses from Sydney as a back-up to Brodie Grundy and to put pressure on Mason Cox’s spot.

While the Pies were defensively sound in 2019, ranking second, they never really got their offensive game going, rating only seventh in attack.

Mason Cox couldn’t build on his 2018 preliminary final heroics, Jordan de Goey was injured and didn’t have the same impact, Josh Thomas and Will Hoskin-Elliott dropped away and of course, Jaidyn Stephenson was suspended for ten matches for placing three bets on his own side.

Jamie Elliott returned to the forward line with a measure of success, and Brody Mihocek stepped up to lead the attack, but overall that part of the ground never gelled. There is enough talent there for it to, but quite a few players are prone to injury and form fluctuations, which makes continuity hard.

The Pies have an engine room that keeps them in all games and wins them many. Brodie Grundy could well be the ruckman of the century by the time he finishes, Scott Pendlebury still makes admirers go weak at the knees, Adam Treloar is prolific and Taylor Adams is the footballer’s footballer while Steele Sidebottom and Tom Phillips patrol the wings.

Scott Pendlebury
Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Down back, Darcy Moore is looking to take another step after a strong 2019, while Jeremy Howe is one of the best interceptors in the game. Jordan Roughead provides great value as a key back, and Brayden Maynard is as tough as old boots. Jack Crisp is ever the professional through mid and defence.

Collingwood lacks some star power at either end of the ground when compared to the likes of Richmond, GWS and West Coast, but they work an effective game plan that is a modification on what the Tigers do.

If the Pies midfield can peak leading into September and the forward line can click at the right time of year, they can kick off the 2020s the way they did the 2010s.

Predicted finish: fourth.

Predicted ladder
1. West Coast
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Collingwood
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Brisbane
7. Hawthorn
8. Geelong
9. North Melbourne
10. St Kilda
11. Port Adelaide
12. Essendon
13. Melbourne
14. Carlton
15. Sydney
16. Adelaide
17. Fremantle
18. Gold Coast

Zero Hanger: Collingwood 2020 Season Preview

Zero Hanger - Fraser Stewart

Will this finally be the year the Pies lift the trophy?

AFL 2020 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v FOOTSCRAY Time & Place: Friday March 20, 7:50pm EDT Docklands TV: 7mate 7:30pm Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 15 Max 22 Chance of rain: 30% <1mm Wind: W 21kph Betting: Collingwood $1.75 Footscray $2.08

Last season
Just like in 2018, the Pies finished last season in heartbreak, going down to GWS in the preliminary final by under a kick.

Despite the gutwrenching loss, there were plenty of good things to come out of it, such as the Pies winning seven games in a row from rounds 4-10, as well as winning their last four games of the season to earn them fourth place on the ladder.

Off the park though, they suffered. Young gun Jaidyn Stephenson received a lengthy ban for his betting scandal, and multiple key players missed long stretches through injury, such as Jordan De Goey, Tom Langdon, Daniel Wells, Dayne Beams, James Aish, Taylor Adams, Darcy Moore, Mason Cox and Jamie Elliott.

Off Season
In: Tom Wilson (Catergory B rookie selection), Darcy Cameron (Sydney), Jay Rantall (Pick 40, Greater Western Victoria Rebels), Trent Bianco (Pick 45, Oakleigh Chargers), Trey Ruscoe (Pick 55, East Fremantle), Lynden Dunn( Pre-season supplemental selection period)

Out: James Aish (traded), Ben Crocker (delisted), Tyson Goldsack (retired), Sam Murray (delisted), Daniel Wells (retired).

Off-season grade C
The Pies didn’t necessarily go into the trade period with a gun-ho attitude as they only made one change, bringing Darcy Cameron in.

No doubt it is one of the players Nathan Buckley wanted as it covers a hole if Mason Cox or Brodie Grundy gets injured, as they probably needed more experienced players around the par for depth.

Defining period 
The most defining period for the Pies is rounds 2-4 where they face the premiers Richmond at the MCG in what is a Richmond home game. They then face Hawthorn and travel to Brisbane Lions at the Gabba in what will be their only interstate trip until round eight.

Their other defining period is between round 16 -18, where they face the Lions again this time at home, Richmond and Geelong.

They have doubled up on the Lions and Richmond which are two of the most exciting and promising teams of the competition but if the Pies can defeat them twice then their would be a reason to optimistic about 2020.

Champion Data says 
“They really are in the sweet spot to contend, coupled with talent across each part of the ground there is no reason why the Magpies can’t go one step further this season.”

Best 22
B: Jeremy Howe, Jordan Roughead, Tom Langdon
HB: Brayden Maynard, Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp
C: Tom Phillips, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Josh Thomas, Brody Mihocek, Jaidyn Stephenson
F: Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Jordan De Goey
FOLL: Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams
I/C: Chris Mayne, Travis Varcoe, Callum Brown, Will Hoskin-Elliott

The Pies are as talented as any team on paper. However, Tom Langdon’s future remains clouded, and Adam Treloar and Travis Varcoe won’t be there round one, if it goes ahead. They have ample cover though with guys like John Noble, Isaac Quaynor, Matt Scharenberg, Ben Reid, Josh Daicos, Rupert Wills, Jack Madgen, Brayden Sier.

Strength and Weaknesses 

Brodie Grundy celebrates a goal during the AFL Preliminary Final against Richmond, September 21, 2018. Photo Michael Dodge AFL Media/Getty Images

There is no doubt that the strength of the Pies lie in two areas. Their midfield is one of the best in the competition, with Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams being ball magnets. It also does help when Brodie Grundy’s groundwork is what sets him apart.

Their defence is strong too. They have the right recipe with Jeremy Howe’s intercept marking being key and the revelation of Darcy Moore. Brayden Maynard, Jack Crisp and Jordan Roughead are all rock solid, with Crisp particularly damaging running the other way.

The Pies’ weakness probably lies in their forward line, where they do not have a straight plan and if they chop and change it then they can’t build any consistency. They have players that can change a game and kick bags but they must do it on a consistent basis. Can De Goey become a consistent 50+ goalkicker? Can Mason Cox hit the 40 mark?

Prediction: 4th
After finishing the last two years by a under a kick, the time is ripe for Collingwood to take the next step. There is no doubt that the Pies can go deep into September and even make it back to the big stage. They didn’t make any major changes to the list, which in this case is a good thing, as they have all the tools already and are flourishing under Buckley. Expect them to be back up there again.

Herald Sun: Collingwood 2020 Season Preview

Herald Sun - Jon Ralph

AFL 2020 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v FOOTSCRAY Time & Place: Friday March 20, 7:50pm EDT Docklands TV: 7mate 7:30pm Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 15 Max 22 Chance of rain: 30% <1mm Wind: W 21kph Betting: Collingwood $1.75 Footscray $2.08

As Nathan Buckley’s Pies saddle up for another premiership tilt, no one at the Holden Centre is sugar-coating the embarrassing nature of last year’s finals exit.

It is a theme that will drive this club all year, aware a last-gasp charge at GWS in the preliminary final belied a greater truth.

Collingwood sleepwalked through three quarters of a preliminary final, down 8.8 (56) to 3.5 (23) until they finally snapped out of that fog.

Senior assistant coach Robert Harvey told the Herald Sun the Pies had thrown away a golden opportunity.

“I suppose in a lot of ways the players were filthy. They were angrier and more disappointed with last year than a couple of years ago (in the Grand Final). The players and staff were really grumpy with how we turned up in a prelim. We just didn’t play our best footy.

“At times through the year we had been coughing and spluttering a bit and couldn’t get the continuity in our game we had been striving for.

“We just played poorly and they are the facts. So everyone has to live with that and we are looking to come out and redeem ourselves and get going. The Giants were really good, but it’s so frustrating and disappointing to have played fairly well in the first final (against Geelong) and then not to have turned up.

"We were so far behind on the night and couldn’t get our game going and then it was even more frustrating that we could get it going for 20 minutes and get close.

“So we have to learn from that and sometimes you have to endure that pain to get through it.

“Other teams have done that and we feel like we have had to endure a bit hopefully we come out the other side of it.”

Collingwood let a huge opportunity slip in last year’s preliminary final.

Collingwood poured on the last nine scores of the preliminary final but a series of huge defensive efforts in a wet, slogging game put GWS into a Grand Final.

Every Pies fan and player will have pondered what might have been against Richmond the next weekend.

The midfield-forward connection fell apart in that contest - key forwards Ben Reid and Brody Mihocek took two marks between them - and Brodie Grundy’s 73 mostly ineffective hitouts have been well-scrutinised over summer.

Collingwood will enter 2020 with an elite squad that has introduced ex-Sydney forward Darcy Cameron but in all likelihood will not see Dayne Beams again.

For Buckley’s men the strategic concerns that reared their head in that final were not foreign — and they are absolutely fixable.

Jordan De Goey missed the preliminary final with a hamstring issue, Mason Cox returns from an eye injury that ruled him out for the finals and Jaidyn Stephenson should get a full run at the season after his betting scandal last year.

“We have worked on some really clear areas over summer to iron it out,” says Harvey.

“We have got some highly driven players, as you would imagine, chasing what they want to achieve.”

On that sodden MCG the Pies were swamped by a perfect storm of a GWS team packing the stoppages and conditions that didn’t allow the Pies to spirit the ball to the outside of the contest.

“We just think teams were pretty good at coming at us around the stoppage stuff and so we need to be proactive in that space and play to our strengths more often than not. For the majority of the season we were, but we fell away in that piece late,” he said.

Collingwood needs more from Jordan De Goey.

The Collingwood defence is clearly elite - Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe winning aerial contests, Jordan Roughead locking down hard, Brayden Maynard as the feral stopper of small forwards and emerging talents John Noble and Isaac Quaynor easing into new roles.

“What is probably underrated is how well those guys defend,” says Harvey.

“We had the second-best defence last year, so to be able to get the job done last year defensively with those boys was a real asset and it’s something the boys pride themselves on. Obviously, we want to continue that this year.”

Cameron is an unknown quantity despite strong NEAFL form that included eight goals playing mostly ruck in 11 second-tier contests last year.

“In some ways it’s probably an area we haven’t had a lot of depth in. We have more of that this year,” says Harvey.

“So it’s an area there is competition in. Throw Ben Reid into that mix, who is really keen to put his best foot forward, and it’s healthy competition. Mihocek has been one of our mainstays and to be able to do what he does for us at his height has been a real win for us and he has great respect in the group.”The trio of dangerous smalls in Jamie Elliott, De Goey and Stephenson will all play some midfield time depending on match-ups and fitness.

“It’s just a great asset to have. For Jordy to have the ability to go into the midfield like he does, even as the midfield coach I would like to play him more in the midfield but it’s where he’s needed on the day. For us it can even be who we are playing against,” says Harvey.

“Stevo is ready to go after his glandular fever. With his speed and endurance his midfield capabilities are strong so that’s where he should look to for the future, but with his speed and power in the front half that’s good for us too so he will spend time in both areas.”

Where will Collingwood finish in 2020?

Beams was recruited as the icing on the cake for Collingwood’s midfield, but in his nine games last year he never dominated enough for Pies fans to truly miss his subsequent absence.

Rupert Wills added a hard-tackling punch to the midfield in his nine games (and two finals), while Brayden Sier has a chance to atone for a disastrous 2019 campaign.

The club’s No.40 draft pick Jay Rantall has looked at home as a hard-running inside-outside onballer in early practice match sorties. Don’t discount an early debut for the teen who won the club’s first time-trial of the summer.

“We feel like we have got midfield cover,” says Harvey of the delicate Beams situation.

“Obviously, Beamsy is still on our list and he is one of our players so we have great care for how that is looking. In the short term I think we have enough depth to be able to cover and we had to deal with that last year as well. Rupert stepped up and we have Brayden there as well so we have guys duking it out for midfield spots.”

Finally, there is the senior coach, one of football’s most fiercely driven characters who has rounded out his personality with a softer, more authentic edge.

“He is coaching really well,” says Harvey of a man he has shared the coaches box with for eight seasons.

“Obviously, he is as disappointed as anyone how we finished last year so there is an edge and a drive to Bucks and the group. All the staff and players want to get better. It’s a great environment to be in, which is good but in the end we are there to get results and he is driving that pretty hard.”

The List

In: Trent Bianco, Darcy Cameron, Max Lynch, Jay Rantall, Trey Ruscoe, Tom Wilson.
Out: James Aish, Ben Crocker, Lynden Dunn, Tyson Goldsack, Sam Murray, Daniel Wells.

Mason Cox will return this year from a serious eye injury.

The Collingwood list is stacked with elite talent plus a burgeoning list of kids who are kicking down the door for opportunities.

No other side has such an array of medium and small goalkicking targets like Jordan De Goey, Jaidyn Stephenson, Jamie Elliott, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Josh Thomas.

But big boys win finals, so can the key forwards in Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, Ben Reid and Darcy Cameron get the business done in September?

Off contract: Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey, Ben Reid, Jack Magden, Jordan Roughead, Mason Cox, Travis Varcoe.

No reason Roughead won’t get an early extension, while Chris Mayne’s new contract to 2021 was released last week but actually brokered in last year’s trade period.

Moore surely stays at Collingwood given a relatively injury-free season which allows the Pies to justify handing him big money.

De Goey, currently without a manager, came back out of shape and is only just recovering.

If he wants Dusty Martin-style money he can still affect the rock-star aura but needs to repeatedly win games off his own boot. He loves the Pies but his contract saga likely has twists and turns ahead.

Big Year For ...

Mason Cox: The big ruckman is uncontracted and laughed off talk he might head to Essendon in the off-season but had kicked only 19 goals from 14 games until a season-ending eye injury saw him miss finals.

Everyone knows his best is majestic — especially Richmond fans — but can he be more consistent in leading up to an elite midfield or at least bringing the ball to ground?

Pre-Season Hero

Isaac Quaynor has had a fantastic pre-season.

Isaac Quaynor: The NGA recruit was a top-10 pick in the 2018 national draft and after a hyped summer he had to wait until Round 16 for the first of his four games in his debut season. That is no criticism of the pacy half-back who has burnt up the track this summer and will back himself to find a role from Round 1 onwards.

Collingwood’s selections last year started at 40 but already they are excited by gut-runner Rantall (40), pacy half-back Trent Bianco (pick 45) and tall defender Trey Ruscoe (55).

Recruiter Derek Hine’s statement that Bianco kicks the ball better than Steele Sidebottom was franked by a dashing practice match contest against Carlton.

“The best thing about those boys is that the expectations of them aren’t limited,” says Harvey.

“We saw glimpses of Rantall when we played Geelong in a practice match and Ruscoe and Rantall against Carlton. They are guys we want to see more of, they are showing plenty of stuff and hopefully they get their chance.

Collingwood draftees Trent Bianco, Trey Ruscoe and Jay Rantall.

“Ruscoe and Bianco are defenders who use it well and Rantall is that high half forward midfielder who we are really impressed with.

“All summer (Rantall) hasn’t looked out of place and that’s why we put him in for those first two games. He looked like he was ready and he has to keep turning up like he does but he should be a good player for a long time.”

Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of

Tom Wilson: The 22-year-old 194cm athletic tall represented Victoria in footy’s Under-16 championships then instead chose basketball and was on the Melbourne Tigers and Sydney Kings lists before choosing the Pies over Geelong, Hawthorn and Gold Coast.

Already in a practice match against Carlton he has shown dash and an ability to throw himself into marking contests with abandon. The Pies wouldn’t be surprised if he cracked a debut this season.

“He is earning great respect,” says Harvey.

“He hasn’t got a long footy background but he is learning the game and has a real future. He is earning that respect with how he goes about it. With a few things he did last week, he has some genuine talent and he is working hard to bring that to fruition so he’s got a good future.”

Stats That Matter

• First in pressure differential (plus 5.7 per cent)
• Fourth for scores inside 50 (44.8 per cent)
• Sixth for time inside forward half (plus 2.01 minutes)
• Second for points against (73 points)

Fox Sports: Collingwood 2019 Season Preview

Fox Sports - Max Laughton

Fox Footy makes the case for Collingwood winning the 2019 AFL premiership. Source: FOX SPORTS

AFL 2019 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:50pm EDT Weather: Min 17 Max 27 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SSE 8kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Geelong $2.25

What would Collingwood winning the premiership look like?
Here’s what the start of a match report from September 28, 2019 could say...
Revenge truly is sweet.
The script has been flipped, with Collingwood defeating West Coast by four points to win an epic 2019 AFL Grand Final, a year after copping last-minute heartbreak.
This time it was Jordan de Goey playing the Dom Sheed role, with the young superstar kicking the Magpies ahead with just minutes to play. It’s a perfect ending to a season that saw him join the AFL’s elite, with a top three finish in the Brownlow Medal to go with it.
It was clear from the start of the season that Nathan Buckley’s side was going to be driven by last year’s pain. Dayne Beams slotted in perfectly to an already star-studded midfield, with Brodie Grundy becoming the tallest ever winner of the Norm Smith Medal.

Could Jordan de Goey be the key to the Magpies going one better in 2019? Photo by Michael Dodge/AFL Media/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

What have they done to improve from 2018?
Traded away quality draft picks, showing they’re trying to win now, not in the future.
Once it became clear Dayne Beams wanted to return home, Collingwood proved it was willing to pay up for their former star, sending away two first round picks.
While there are questions over who he replaces, given the Magpies already had the second-strongest midfield in the AFL per Champion Data, he actually does fill a real need.
None of the Pies’ four mids who are rated above average in the 2019 AFL Prospectus - Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom and Taylor Adams - are real goalkickers. Treloar and Sidebottom kicked 12 each in 2018, while Pendlebury and Adams each booted nine.
Beams kicked 18 in just 21 games; that saw him post the sixth-best average of any midfielder in the competition. The year prior, Beams kicked 20 goals in 19 matches.
When you’re in the window, you have to try and win a flag. The Pies have recognised that.

Dayne Beams is more of a goalkicker than the rest of the Pies’ star mids. Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

The academy system
Taken advantage of the academy system to pick up a potential gem.
It’s somewhat ironic, given Eddie McGuire’s historic protests, that the academy system helped Collingwood acquire a potential star more cheaply than usual.
Isaac Quaynor was already expected to be a high draft selection, but thanks to the Next Generation Academy system (and his dad hailing from Ghana), he fell into the Magpies’ zone, allowing them to match a bid and get the halfback for much less than he otherwise would have cost in draft capital.
Quaynor is a strong chance to face Geelong in Round 1, lining up in defence - for the first of potentially hundreds of times.

Daniel Wells played just four games in 2018, and none after the Queen’s Birthday clash. AAP Image/Julian Smith Source: AAP

Why can they win the flag?
They led the 2018 Grand Final with two minutes to play.
Sorry for the reminder, but it’s a sign the Pies are already pretty close.
It’s not like they can cop worse injury luck than they have in recent years.
Every club has to deal with injuries, but some have it worse than others.
Richmond lost the fourth-fewest games to injury from their best 22 in 2017; the Bulldogs got their stars back in time for the finals in 2016. This is a major element of luck that every year impacts on the flag race.
In a sense then Collingwood overachieved last year by getting as close as it did to a premiership.
The Magpies lost 218 games from players in their best 22 because of injuries in 2018, per Champion Data. Of the eight sides that lost the most games to injury last season, only they and GWS made the finals.
This doesn’t mean they’ll suddenly bounce back and be fully healthy in 2019; luck doesn’t quite work like that.
Also, on an individual player level, health is a ‘skill’ - you have it or you don’t, and you can get better at it. A player like Daniel Wells, who has played more than 10 games once in the last five seasons, is unlikely to suddenly play all year (as good as it would be for the Pies if he did).
But it is unlikely things will get worse in 2019.

Nathan Buckley: Everything appeared to click in 2018.

Nathan Buckley
Nathan Buckley clearly figured something out in 2018.
Remember how big a circus it was around whether Bucks would be re-signed in the latter stages of 2017?
Now compare that to him signing a new contract last week. You might have even missed it.
That's a sign of how far things have come for the former club champion, as in his seventh year as Magpies coach everything appeared to click.
We know the Pies love playing for Buckley, but it shone through in their game style in 2018.
It’s been frustrating watching the club in recent years because they clearly had the talent to be better than their results said they were; in 2018, it appeared the whole team invested more heavily in defending.
In 2017, the Magpies were the 13th-best in the AFL at allowing opposition sides to score from their defensive half. In 2018, they were second-best. Funnily enough, the Pies rose from 13th on the ladder to second (post-finals) in those years as well.
Buckley had major success moving the magnets around, too. Chris Mayne had a career resurgence on the wing. Darcy Moore, when fit, impressed as a defender. Will Hoskin-Elliott and Travis Varcoe jumped from spending 25.6 per cent and 36.4 per cent of their time forward in 2017, to 79.8 per cent and 84.3 per cent in 2018 respectively.
And, of course, Mason Cox emerged as a key forward who tore a preliminary final apart.
This all bodes well for Bucks in two ways.
One, the team looks much better and settled heading into this season than it did coming into 2018. Two, we have faith that if issues do arise during 2019, he and his coaching staff can solve them.

The Pies defended much better as a team in 2018. Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

What could stop them from winning the flag?
The fixture is much tougher this year.
For the second straight season, a team took advantage of the AFL’s fixturing rules to make the Grand Final.
Richmond and now Collingwood went from 13th to the last game of the season; partially because they had the draw of the bottom six side they were the year prior.
In contrast, as a top four side in 2018, the Magpies now face what has been judged as footy’s toughest fixture.
Compare their 2018 double-ups to 2019.
Last year: Brisbane (15th in 2018), Carlton (18th), Essendon (11th), Fremantle (14th) and Richmond (1st in H&A).
This year: Richmond (1st), West Coast (2nd), Melbourne (5th), Essendon (11th) and the Western Bulldogs (13th).
That’s six games against last year’s preliminary finalists, compared to just four games against last year’s bottom four.
The Pies also have an AFL-high eight six-day breaks; every other club, bar Essendon, has six or fewer.

The Plexiglas Principle

The Pies face West Coast twice in the 2019 home and away season. AAP Image/Julian Smith Source: AAP

Something called the Plexiglas Principle.
There’s a relatively simple concept that is often used in covering US sports, known as the Plexiglas Principle.
The idea is that when a player or team does something unusual, like make an enormous jump from year to year, it’s like bending Plexiglas; in the seasons afterwards, it’s likely it will bend back to a more normal shape. (This is an artsy way of talking about regression to the mean, basically.)
Our natural inclination is to assume a team on the rise will continue to rise, because humans love patterns. This isn’t always true; randomness means things don’t work that way.
Essentially, when a team jumps from 13th on the ladder one year to third the next, it means we shouldn’t necessarily expect them to stay there or rise. That is what Collingwood did between 2017 and 2018.
Yes, they improved because their players and tactics got better, but that doesn’t mean continued success is a sure thing.
Look at how close the margins were for the Pies on the ladder last year. They finished third by 0.3 per cent, and would’ve been fifth with one more loss.
And consider that Collingwood had one of the easiest fixtures in 2018, but face the hardest one in 2019. As shown above, they could easily lose one or two more games because their double-ups are different.
Entire games turn on the bounce of a ball. It is not far fetched that randomness, combined with a tougher fixture, will see the Pies drop out of the top four - and thus face an elimination final, rather than being able to take advantage of the double chance. It wouldn’t take much.

2019 Draw
First Six

Herald Sun: Collingwood 2019 Season Preview

Herald Sun - Chris Cavanagh

Collingwood fell agonisingly short in the 2018 Grand Final and that type of defeat can send a club one of two ways. However, looking at the Magpies list and off-season capture of Dayne Beams, Chris Cavanagh believes there’s plenty to like about the black and white in 2019.

Nine Reasons For Collingwood Fans To Get Excited

1. Brilliant Beams

Dayne Beams back in black and white.

Brisbane didn’t want to let Dayne Beams head back to Collingwood, knowing he is a quality footballer with plenty left in the tank but in the end they didn’t get much choice. Beams wanted to return to Melbourne and the club where he started his career and got his wish in the end despite being contacted to the Lions for another two years. Beams will start next season aged 29 but is coming off a runner-up finish in Brisbane’s best-and-fairest after a campaign during which he averaged 29.1 disposals and kicked 18 goals from 21 games. The midfielder will prove a massive addition to an impressive Collingwood onball brigade which already boasts Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom.

2. Grand Final Heartbreak
Grand final heartbreak can go one of two ways. It can either crush you the following season or spur you on to bigger and better things. The Magpies will be hoping the latter eventuates in 2019. Collingwood was oh so close in the 2018 Grand Final, leading by 12 points early in the last quarter before eventually falling to West Coast by five points. Nathan Buckley’s men will see it as a missed opportunity and will no doubt be determined to make amends in 2019.

3. Big Mason

A dejected Mason Cox after the
2018 AFL Grand Final.

The American Pie, Mason Cox, officially announced himself during the 2018 Finals Series. While there were some promising signs earlier in the year, Cox showed an ability to tear a game apart in Collingwood’s preliminary final against Richmond. He had 15 disposals, took 11 marks and kicked three goals in that match and went on to play an impressive second half in the Grand Final against West Coast a week later, booting two goals. The 27-year-old finished the season with just 25 goals from 24 games but, given his finish, the Magpies will be expecting plenty more out of him in 2019 as his rise from college basketballer to AFL star continues.

AFL 2019 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:50pm EDT Weather: Min 17 Max 27 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SSE 8kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Geelong $2.25

4. Curse Over?
While Collingwood made do to make a Grand Final in the end regardless, an injury curse throughout 2018 did not help the club’s cause. The Magpies had one of the lengthiest injury lists in the league week-in, week-out including many key players. Tyson Goldsack (knee) and Daniel Wells (foot) each played just four games, Ben Reid (calf) played six games, Darcy Moore (hamstring) managed seven matches and Lynden Dunn (14 games) and Matthew Scharenberg (17 games) both missed the closing stages of the season after having knee reconstructions. The injuries particularly cut deep in the back half, something that should be strengthened next season if those players can stay fit.

5. Soaring Belief
While Grand Final day didn’t go as hoped, the Magpies showed in the 2018 preliminary final against Richmond that their best football is scintillating and just about unbeatable. Collingwood brought extreme pressure around the ball, dominated the midfield battle, were hard to score against and damaging up forward.
They won that match by 39 points, with Jordan De Goey kicking four goals and Mason Cox three.

Jordan De Goey celebrates a goal in the
preliminary final win over Richmond.

It ended the Tigers’ 22-game winning streak at the MCG and back-to-back premiership hopes, providing the Magpies with enormous belief that their structures stand up against the competition’s best when they are properly carried out.

6. Talented Trio
Collingwood’s list isn’t overly old. On average the club’s Grand Final team was 173 days younger than West Coast and three players featured in the big dance during their debut seasons. They were none other than Jaidyn Stephenson, Brayden Sier and Brody Mihocek, who all have significant upside left in them. Stephenson won the AFL Rising Star award and finished the 2018 season with 38 goals from 26 games, while Sier made an impact in the midfield in second half of the season and mature-age recruit Mihocek finished the year with 29 goals from 16 games. While all sizzling debut seasons, you suspect that is just the beginning for the talented trio.

7. Buckley At Best

Nathan Buckley with Adam Treloar and
Steele Sidebottom. Picture: David Caird

There is no doubt Nathan Buckley has grown significantly as a coach over the past two years. He now has seven seasons in the top job under his belt and this is his Magpies team. Last season it was clear he had a plan and had the players on board with it. Buckley won the AFL Coaches Association Coach of the Year award for the first time, voted by his peers, which highlighted his rise and that growth he has experienced should hold the side in good stead going forward.

8. Jordan De Goey
The 2018 season was a breakout year for Collingwood forward Jordan De Goey, but you sense he is only getting better. The 22-year-old kicked 48 goals from 21 games, after a previous career-best haul of 16 goals in 2016. He has X-factor most players can only dream of and ranks elite in his position for goals, marks inside 50m, clearances and kicks. Hawthorn great Dermott Brereton compared De Goey to Richmond superstar Dustin Martin last year and while the Magpie is not quite there yet, he is well on the way.

9. The Number: 2
It’s no surprise that Collingwood’s strength is its midfield, rating as the second-best midfield and ruck combination in the competition. It’s the evenness of the group that stands out, with not one elite midfielder but four in the above average category.

2019 Draw
First Six

Roar: Collingwood 2019 Season Preview

Roar - Cameron Rose

2019 Draw
First Six

AFL 2019 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:50pm EDT Weather: Min 17 Max 27 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SSE 8kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Geelong $2.25

Collingwood were a surprise packet of the 2018 season, rocketing from a 13th-placed finish in 2017 all the way to leading a grand final with five minutes to play.
Alas, Dom Sheed kicked what has already become one of the most famous goals in VFL/AFL history, and the Magpies were denied a 16th premiership.
From a future perspective, the best thing about Collingwood’s season was the improvement they showed throughout 2018. After a 4-4 start, they only lost five more matches for the year, with three of those coming to the premiers West Coast.
The preliminary final demolition of Richmond was a case in point, given they had lost to the Tigers twice by comfortable margins earlier in the home-and-away rounds.
The Pies were both fierce and formidable in 2018. Can they sustain and then build upon that momentum to go one step further this year?

Dayne Beams

Photo Michael Dodge/Getty Images

Collingwood best 22
B: T.Langdon L.Dunn B.Maynard
HB: J.Howe D.Moore J.Crisp
C: T.Phillips S.Pendlebury S.Sidebottom
HF: D.Beams B.Mihocek W.Hoskin-Elliott
F: J.De Goey M.Cox J.Elliott
Foll: B.Grundy T.Adams A.Treloar
Int: J.Thomas J.Stephenson C.Mayne T.Varcoe
Em: T.Goldsack D.Wells L.Greenwood

Midfield
Collingwood lost no-one of note in the off-season, but welcomed back Dayne Beams from Brisbane and gained Jordan Roughead from the Western Bulldogs.
The Pies had arguably the best midfield in the competition anyway, and the addition of Beams strengthens it even further. Daniel Wells only played three full matches in 2018, so would add even more if he can ever get fit.
But just adding a gun midfielder or two to an already stacked part of the ground doesn’t necessarily equate to an improved team – we saw that with Geelong last year adding Gary Ablett and Tim Kelly to the likes of Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Menegola but still tumbling down the ladder.
There is still only one footy to go around, so the addition of Beams isn’t just going to automatically add 30 disposals and a goal or two a game on what Collingwood did last year.
When thinking about who the star of the Magpie midfield is, names like Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Beams are hard to split. But the true answer is Brodie Grundy.
Grundy is the closest thing to Dean Cox we’ve seen since the peak years of the West Coast champion, a monster in the ruck but an enormous around the ground presence, particularly in the clinches, with his running game also unequaled by anyone over 200cm in the league.
In The Roar AFL Top 50 voting earlier this month, Sidebottom (23), Pendlebury (24), Beams (26) and Treloar (30) were all ranked around the same mark, highlighting how much class the Pies have.
Sidebottom runs all day and uses it well, time continues to stand still whenever Pendlebury has the ball, Beams is the longest kick, best mark and most natural goal-kicker of the four, while Treloar is the most explosive. What a mix.
Taylor Adams is the workhorse of the midfield, which frees up his classier teammates, and Tom Phillips assumes a completely outside role running both ways.
Young Brayden Sier has a bright future as an inside specialist, and would be a starting player in almost every other side but is probably only depth in this squad. James Aish played through the finals and looked to have finally made it, but is another that will likely get squeezed out. He did play as a back pocket in the JLT Series though, so there may be a change of role for him.

Jordan De Goey
Photo Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Jordan de Goey led the Collingwood goal-kicking with 48 last year, often deployed as the deepest forward to give opposition defenders a few nightmares. Alex Rance was toweled up by him in the preliminary final, which is a sign of de Goey’s standing in the game already.
The easy comparison is with Dustin Martin, because it’s true. Will he push more into the midfield after bursts there last year?
Jamie Elliott has a lot of fans among AFL watchers, all hoping he can stay fit and get back to his best. He’s the rare marking small forward, with great instincts, a big leap and sure hands. Jaiden Stephenson won the Rising Star from the forward pocket, with his electric pace causing problems for opponents.
Will Hoskin-Elliot has fulfilled his potential at Collingwood in a way he never could at GWS, but a cleaner bill of health has helped. Mason Cox continues to narrow the gap between his best games and his worst, as well as the length of time between those events.
Brody Mihocek played an effective role as a defensive tall forward once he came into the side, and hit the scoreboard regularly. He should hold his spot, but was still kept on the rookie list rather than being elevated. Travis Varcoe has played all over the ground in his career, but continues to provide value as a forward pocket and flanker.
The Pies forward-line is an eclectic mix that worked for them in 2018, but they will have to rediscover the same chemistry this season with Elliott back in the side.
Down back, Collingwood has plenty of options too.
Roughead has been brought into play fullback while Lynden Dunn recovers from a knee injury, and also provide cover for when Darcy Moore inevitably gets injured. Moore looked extremely sharp in the JLT Series, and we know the importance of an attacking tall defender that can be a strong marking option down there.
Tom Langdon had an outstanding finals series and has fully arrived at the top level. Jeremy Howe has been a beacon of consistency as an interceptor since arriving at Collingwood. Similar to other top sides like West Coast and Richmond, the Pies backline is well stocked in regards to winning the ball back from opposition forward attacks.

Taylor Adams
Photo Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Jack Crisp provides drive off halfback, Brayden Maynard has nailed down a spot as a tough back pocket, and there are the likes of Levi Greenwood and Tyson Goldsack as all-purpose options that can also play in other parts of the ground. Matt Scharenberg often commands a spot, but never gets a consistent run due to injury.

Draw
The Pies will want to be up and going early this year, given they have Geelong, Richmond and West Coast to open the season. They had a combined 1-6 record against those three sides in 2018.

They also have double up games against the Eagles, Tigers, Melbourne and Essendon, which shapes as difficult. You wouldn’t have to go far to find someone that has those teams as their top four.Collingwood has the best midfield in the comp, an outstanding multi-faceted forwardline, a more-than-solid defence, and unsurpassed depth. They play with ferocious intensity and high pressure, and they will be burning with hunger from getting so close to the holy grail last year.
The Pies are the team to beat when September comes around.

Prediction: second