Thursday, July 18, 2013

Round 17 Preview: Collingwood v Gold Coast


Collingwood v Gold Coast
Saturday July 20, 4.40pm
Metricon Stadium
Fox Footy 4.30pm

Weather:
Min 15 Max 19
Chance of rain 70%: 1-5mm
Wind: NNW 22kph

Betting:
Collingwood $1.16
Gold Coast $5.25
Any fans that started the year with Saturday evening’s match against Gold Coast inked into their fixtures as a win will need to quickly find some whiteout.
The Gold Coast Suns aren’t young cannon fodder for the competition’s strongest teams any more. They have won five games this season including three at their home ground. Many of their much vaunted youngsters have taken big strides and captain Gary Ablett Junior continues to go from strength to strength.
In summary, Saturday’s match should be a beauty.

Head-to-Head
Collingwood: 2
Gold Coast: 0
Drawn: 0

Past Two 
Round 10 2012
Collingwood 23.11 (149)
Gold Coast 7.10 (52)
Goals – Collingwood: Cloke 3, Elliott 3, Sinclair 3, D.Thomas 3, Didak 2, Fasolo 2, Goldsack, Pendlebury, Wellingham, Williams, Wood, Beams, Buckley
Gold Coast: Brown 3, Lynch, Russell, Hall, Shaw
Disposals – Collingwood: D.Thomas 32, Beams 32, Didak 29, Wellingham 27, Buckley 25
Gold Coast: Ablett 53, Bennell 28, Iles 24, McKenzie 21, Stanley 20
Brownlow: 3. G.Ablett (GC), 2. D.Thomas (Coll), 1. D.Beams (Coll)
At the MCG

Round 18 2011
Collingwood 19.15 (129)
Gold Coast 11.9 (75)
Goals – Collingwood: Keeffe 3, Ball 2, Johnson 2, Cloke 2, Pendlebury 2, Krakouer 2, Sidebottom 2, Blair, Buckley, Swan, Goldsack
Gold Coast: Bennell 2, McKenzie 2, Iles, Krakouer, Lynch, Harbrow, Rischitelli, Stanley, Weller
Disposals – Collingwood: Pendlebury 34, Johnson 33, Davis 32, Swan 31, Ball 27
Gold Coast: Ablett 36, Stanley 23, Brown 23, Swallow 22, Iles 21
Brownlow: 3. S.Pendlebury (Coll), 2. L.Ball (Coll), 1. B.Johnson (Coll)
At Metricon Stadium

Stats and figures
- The retiring Ben Johnson played only one game against Gold Coast but he made it count. It was back in July 2011, only a week after he had returned from a long layoff with a hamstring injury. After gathering 23 possessions against the Blues, Johnson unleashed against the Suns, gathering 33 possessions and kicking two goals from three scoring shots. He also took the ball inside 50 on an equal career-high 10 occasions and laid four tackles – all this despite playing only 73 per cent of the match.
- Every Gold Coast match sees opposition supporters keep one eye trained on the genius in No.9 – Gary Ablett. He has been a thorn in Collingwood’s side for several years now, and not only in his time as a Sun. He averages 44.5 possessions while playing for the Coast against the Magpies and won a career-high 53 touches in last year’s encounter. Despite Ablett’s dominance, which saw him receive three Brownlow votes, Collingwood still romped to a 97-point. Many Collingwood supporters will still remember the lone hand Ablett played for Geelong when his side was thrashed by the Pies in the 2010 Preliminary Final. Ablett collected 40 possessions in a 41-point loss. The match was his final outing in the blue and white hoops. Three years earlier, it was Ablett who sunk Collingwood’s hopes of a surprise Grand Final appearance with a crucial late goal in the 2007 Preliminary Final.
- They may have been in the competition for only two years but Gold Coast has already made use of its share of ex-Collingwood people. Josh Fraser (2000-2010), Danny Stanley (2006-2009) and Sam Iles (2006-2008) all sought greener pastures at Metricon Stadium after several years in Black and White. Current Suns coach Guy McKenna was an assistant to Mick Malthouse from 2004-2007 and Collingwood stalwart Shane O’Bree was one of McKenna’s assistants in the new club’s first two years. A little-known fact is that Gold Coast star Harley Bennell’s older brother Johnny spent a year on Collingwood’s rookie list in 2009.
- History will be on Collingwood’s side as it runs out onto Metricon Stadium on Saturday evening. It is one of five clubs that hold a 100 per cent winning record at the venue. The Magpies have won all six encounters at the ground (five against the Brisbane Bears and one against the Suns). The club’s first match at the venue was back in 1987 (then known as Carrara) when it beat the Bears by 23 points. The legendary Peter Daicos holds the record for the most amount of goals kicked at the ground, having bagged an incredible 13 against the hapless Bears in round 20, 1991.
- It’s a tick over 12 months since Collingwood last met Gold Coast but the complexion of its side has changed dramatically. When the Magpies run out against the Suns on Saturday, Alex Fasolo, Harry O’Brien, Dale Thomas, Cameron Wood, Sharrod Wellingham, Tom Young, Simon Buckley, Chris Dawes and Kirk Ugle will all be missing for one reason or another. Alan Didak and Marty Clarke are others who didn’t play last week who were members of the team that won by 97-points in round 10 last year.

Record breakers?
The Magpie Army comes from far and wide to support its beloved team and it’s little wonder that it helped set the record for the highest attendance for a VFL/AFL game at Metricon Stadium in round 18, 2011, when 23,302 saw the Pies get home by 54-points. The venue has a capacity of 25,000. Could the Army break the record on Saturday evening?

The Collingwood Football Club seems to be finding some form in as we head into the final 7 rounds of the 2013 home and away season.
With successive wins over two teams sitting just outside the top eight, Carlton and Adelaide, the Pies are now poised for an assault on a vital top four spot.
This week though they face yet another team that has dropped out of finals contention recently, the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Suns have improved in 2013 to currently sit with a 5 win and 10 loss record although that looked a lot better 4 weeks back.
They have lost 4 games in a row and those losses have ended the dream of the Gold Coast playing finals in only their third season.
These two clubs have only played each other twice in the regular season before, with the Magpies winning both games comfortably.
The Magpies recorded a 97 point win last year at the MCG and a 54 point win on the Gold Coast in the Suns first season.
Yes, there isn’t much history between these two but if the young talent on each teams’ list is anything to go by they will create some history, maybe starting on Saturday afternoon.

PREVIOUS FORM
The Suns were one of the surprises of the season a few weeks back as they sat close to the top eight with a 5-6 win/loss record, but 4 losses in a row have set them back a little.
Their last two games showed that they are still competitive, but that they are now struggling to get over the line and win. Last week against the Tigers, in Cairns, the Suns tried hard all day but despite a late surge they lost to Richmond by 9 points. The conditions in Cairns were woeful as the final score was a combined total of 12 goals and 25 behinds. The week before in the “Q Clash” against fellow Queenslanders the Brisbane Lions, the Suns struggled throughout and subsequently lost by 33 points, although the Lions did finish the game off well to extend the score a little beyond what was a true indication of the match. The Suns are no longer the easy beats they were in their first two seasons, but their recent form has to be a worry, although they do get to return to the fortress that is Metricon Stadium this Saturday.
Collingwood may be back in form, although it’s a little hard to tell as this is the “easy” part of their 2013 home and away draw at the moment. Since a poor loss to Port Adelaide after the bye, the Magpies have notched up wins over Carlton and Adelaide at the MCG, both on Friday nights, to re-establish themselves within reaching distance of the top echelon on the AFL ladder.
Last week’s win over Adelaide wasn’t was easy as the Carlton win though, as the Crows had their last crack at keeping their finals chances alive, and they fought hard until Scott Pendelbury and Dayne Beams lifted to get the Magpies over the line.
The return of Beams, and more so the way he assisted the midfield would have bought a tear to a Pies fan eye, as it’s Beams who last year carried this side to a preliminary final, and on his return he showed how and why.
Even head coach Nathan Buckley admitted that he probably was going to sub him off, but he was simply getting better as the game went on and you couldn’t ignore that, or afford to take him off.
With Beams now back in the side, the Pies have one of the most formidable mid-fields in the AFL and they can now worry the better teams once their draw gets tougher.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
There was good and bad news last week for Collingwood as their notched up yet another win and saw a successful return for Dayne Beams, but in the dying seconds of the game an injury occurred that will hurt the Pies.
Ex Hawk Clinton Young lunged to make a tackle only for his hamstring to once again go on him and the long kicking half back will be missing for at least the next month.
Young had only just returned, and was only playing his second game for his new club. Harry O’Brien would be the perfect replacement for Young but it has been announced that he won’t play again this weekend.
Without those two, it will fall to the youngsters such as Sam Dwyer, Paul Seedsman and Marley Williams to provide plenty of pace and attack themselves.
Still, the Magpies major problem seems to be an inability to defend on the counter attack, as just about every time they turned the ball over or the Crows won it quickly out of their defensive zone, the Pies were caught out in defense and it led to a scoring opportunity.
The other problem the Magpies have had for most of the season is assistance for gun forward Travis Cloke up forward, and while Ben Reid going forward has helped in the past few weeks, it will be interesting to see if Reid continues to be used up forward or if Quinten Lynch will return against the Suns.
Along with Lynch the likes of Marty Clarke, Kyle Martin, Lachlan Keeffe, Brodie Grundy and Tyson Goldsack will be pushing for inclusion, although no VFL game last weekend hurts the chances of most of those players.
Buckley is slowly and surely building the side and game plan that he wants to, and there are signs that the youngsters in the group are getting to the point where they are earning their place on ability, not just potential.
This weekend the Pies face one of the best young groups in the AFL, and it will be interesting to see how some of the young Pies go against some of the more highly rated Gold Coast youngsters.
A thought has to go out this week though to Ben Johnson, as the 235 Magpie champion called it a day due to injuries.
Johnson, a Magpies supporter growing up, bled black and white for this club and his long left foot goals that lifted the Magpie army to it’s feet will be greatly missed.
There were emotional scenes at the club as his best mates, such as Dane Swan and Alan Didak gave speeches about the man, and the player.
Johnson was a vital part of the 2010 Premiership side and as so is an immortal in the eyes of most Collingwood fans.
We will miss you Johnno but thank you from the bottom of our hearts for everything you have done for this great club.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
We all know the Gold Coast Suns are still a developing team, having only been in the competition for just over two full seasons, yet at times last year they were thought to be highly underachieving. Before their round 16 game against the Tigers, they hadn’t won a game, yet by round 11 this season they had won 8 of their last 19 games.
The Suns sat on the edge of the eight with a 5-6 record and some were even suggesting that the upstarts from the Gold Coast might play finals. Since then however, they have lost 4 straight games, but despite that it’s clear to see this group of players has a massive future leading forward.
Yes, they are led by maybe the league’s best player in Gary Ablett Jnr but they also seem to have recruited well to fill gaps over the past season or so. The Suns are on a rise and when you break down their lines you can see why.
The Suns midfield would have to be their strength and it’s not only because of that one man Ablett. Ablett is a star, a champion midfielder no doubt, but it’s the assistance he is getting this year that has made the Suns a better team. This year the Suns finally got to play the much hyper Jaeger O’Meara and from minute one you can just tell the kid was going to be a star. Add the likes of Prestia, Harbrow, Shaw, Swallow and Bennell and you have a midfield rotation that is getting close to being one of the best in the league, and may well be in that category as early as next season.
The Suns sit sixth for clearances and seventh in contested possessions which is a sign of just how far this midfield has come so far this season.
The Suns lost their number one ruckman Zac Smith to a season ending knee injury but what a replacement they have in Thomas Nicholls who this week was awarded with a rising star nomination for his work in the past few weeks. The Suns, like the Pies are ranked lowly in the hit out category but it’s what Nicholls does after the ruck contests that shows his potential to be a star. The midfield battle is almost worst the price of admission alone, because you simply have some of the best players in the AFL going head to head.
The Suns forward line has been their biggest problem this season though, with injuries to key players like Dixon, Lynch, Matera and Smith they really have struggled to score when going forward. The fact they are the most inaccurate team in the league when shooting for goal says a lot about their lack of key position players in the forward line.
It is one area that you would suggest coach Guy Mckenna will look to improve at the end of the season.
There is still some talent up forward though and Charlie Dixon is an outside chance to return this week against Collingwood, which would help them significantly.
The Suns don’t have one player who has kicked over 20 goals this year and Campbell Brown and Aaron Hall have been the most effective of the forwards with 17 goals each. Gary Ablett sits one goal above them on the goal tally though, which isn’t a shock but is a sign of how they have struggled to find goal kickers in 2013.
Losing Zac Smith hurt the set up too as he and Nicholls would have been able to swap in the ruck and up forward so it’s really been a terribly unlucky year for the Suns up forward. This week they face a Pies defense that is suspect on the counter attack so there’s little doubt that the Suns will try to exploit Collingwood with a fast moving forward line.
The Suns backline is still a developing group but it has sorely missed the services of it’s leader, Nathan Bock who is close to returning after several weeks in the NEAFL after missing so much football after that terrible injury he suffered last season.
The absence of Bock has allowed the Suns to get plenty of game time into Rory Thompson at centre half back while Matthew Warnock has been the rock at full back and has held up well.
What the Suns don’t lack is run out of defense with Harbrow, Mckenzie, Broughton and Tape all giving plenty of fast ball movement out of defense. Mckenzie is now famous for that booming left foot and against a side like Collingwood where you have to move the ball quickly, he will be vital this week.
Depending on who the Pies play up forward the Suns may have trouble lining up on a third tall though, but with Bock close to returning that problem will be solved soon.
The Suns have improved, that’s clear for everyone to see and the addition of the likes of Nicholls and O’Meara have been a large part of that.
They need to notch up a few more wins though before the season is over, although their last 4 games are very winnable against sides currently below them on the ladder.
At the moment though they have to contend with Collingwood and then Carlton at home, and they do have some players returning from injury finally. Bock, Hunt and Dixon may not play this week but they aren’t far away from returning.
The almost certain return of Warnock will assist their backline but beyond that there are several players who may come in, or go out of the Suns line up. Whichever side they pick it will have to be more accurate up forward than they have been recently, that’s for sure.

TIP
Collingwood need to win this game, it’s one of those games that they could lose but simply can’t afford to.
The Suns on the other hand were close to a win last week in Cairns and will return home knowing they need to notch some wins soon to keep their upward trend going leading into next season.
The home ground advantage has started to grow for the Suns this year with 3 of their 5 wins coming on the Metricon Stadium turf.
That’s their hope, that after a few weeks on the road they can return and play near their best on their home ground against a Pies side that still isn’t playing it’s absolute best football.
The Magpies midfield can match the Suns strength though, and should be able to dominate when it gets the ball forward.
It’s in attack that the Suns need to exploit the Magpies but I just can’t see it happening with that forward line a mess at the moment.
Collingwood should notch up a win here, although it won’t be easy.
PIES BY 19 POINTS.

                                

Injury List

Collingwood
Alan Didak (calf) – test
Quinten Lynch (back) – test
Jack Frost (knee) – 1-2 weeks
Darren Jolly (knee) – 3-4 weeks
Alex Fasolo (foot) – indefinite
Dale Thomas (ankle) – indefinite
Clinton Young (hamstring) – indefinite
Michael Hartley (shoulder) – season
Alan Toovey (knee) – season


Next Five Weeks

Collingwood
Round 18 – Greater Western Sydney at the MCG
Round 19 – Essendon at the MCG
Round 20 – Sydney at ANZ Stadium
Round 21 – Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 22 – West Coast at the MCG

SUMMARY
After a bright first half of the season, Gold Coast has hit a roadblock with four straight losses. The Suns have been competitive in each defeat, but are struggling to make the most of their chances going forward. They come up against a Collingwood outfit just starting to hit its stride. With the return of Dayne Beams last week, the Magpies looked irresistible in the midfield against Adelaide, with Beams, Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Luke Ball running riot. Watch for exciting young Suns Dion Prestia and Jaeger O'Meara to run with these players and make them accountable the other way. Collingwood needs to win to keep its top-four chances alive, and should do so.

LAST TWO TIMES
R10, 2012: Collingwood 23.11 (149) d Gold Coast 7.10 (52) at the MCG
R18, 2011: Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Gold Coast 11.9 (75) at Metricon Stadium

THE SIX POINTS
1. Gold Coast and Collingwood last met in round 10 last season, and despite Gary Ablett racking up a record 53 disposals, the Magpies were comfortable 97-point victors.
2. This will be the second time the teams have met at Metricon Stadium. Their first clash was in round 18, 2011, and with Mick Malthouse still in charge, Collingwood won by 54 points.
3. For Gold Coast to win, they will have to defy history – Collingwood is undefeated in six trips to Metricon Stadium, formerly Carrara.
4. Collingwood has been strong in its forward half this season, ranked second for marks inside 50 (14.3 per game). Gold Coast is ranked 14th with 10.4 per game.
5. Collingwood’s ball winners are prolific, and are ranked second for average disposals (380) compared to Gold Coast's ninth (357). The Magpies are also the AFL's highest-ranked team for uncontested possessions.
6. Three of the top seven players in the league will be on the field on Saturday. Ablett is ranked a clear number one in the Official AFL Player Ratings, while Pendlebury (fifth) and Swan (seventh) both rose following outstanding performances against the Crows last week.
                                

HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 2, Collingwood 2, Gold Coast 0

LAST TIME: Collingwood 23.11 (149) defeated Gold Coast 7.10 (52), Round 10, 2012 at the MCG

WALKING WOUNDED:
Second key forward target Quinten Lynch (back) is a chance to return to bulk some size into the Pies front half, and give a chop out to Ben Hudson/Jarrod Witts in the ruck. Veteran Alan Didak remains a week away from returning to action from a calf complaint, while Darren Jolly's knee will keep him out for another 3-4 weeks. Clinton Young (hamstring) is in doubt to play, after a niggling problem hindered him in their win over Adelaide on Friday night.
Key tall Charlie Dixon will give the Suns a bit of height in both the forward line and ruck divisions, on return from an ankle injury. Fellow big man Daniel Gorringe is also available to be included from a shoulder problem. Centre half-back Rory Thompson should be fit, despite sustaining bruising to his chest in their loss to Richmond. Jesse Lonergan and Michael Rischitelli are both listed as 2-3 weeks away from hamstring and elbow injuries respectively.

FORM:
The Pies have found form right at the right time of year, with enough time left to build more momentum ahead of a September campaign. The recent inclusions of Dayne Beams and Luke Ball to the 22 have no doubt had a profound effect on performance, as they have produced consecutive come-from-behind wins over Carlton and Adelaide. Although due credit should also go the way of class act Scott Pendlebury, who has collected 33 and 42 possessions in the past fortnight in two dominant individual efforts.
The Suns have laboured in the past month - slumping to four losses, although being blown out of the water in none of them. Most recently, they were humbled for the first time in their young history by Richmond by just nine points. Losses to Essendon, Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions preceded that. Their best form this season has come at Metricon, as they have won there three times this season.

WE THINK:
The Pies are in the right mood for this one, and should not cough up the points despite doing so meekly on their most recent road trip against Port Adelaide. In fact, in three interstate flights this season, only once have Nathan Buckley's men returned with the four points - against a very under-strength Brisbane. This will be more of a test for the Pies, given the added element of humidity and the significant improvement their opponents have enjoyed since the then-premiers humbled the Suns by 54 points at the venue in 2011. The depth of Collingwood's midfield alone should see them over the line, but expect the Suns' stars to get on top of the clearances at some stage. Also, Guy McKenna might struggle to contain the threat of Travis Cloke, who has two bags of five goals in the past month.
Collingwood by 18 points.
                                

 
Collingwood v Gold Coast is by no means a sexy clash but it’s one of interest (it’s an AFL game, that’s all you need to qualify on my watch) and one which could have finals seeding implications.
The Magpies sit seventh on the ladder, one and a half games behind Sydney and Fremantle in the fight for a top four spot. With a tough run home the Pies would probably settle for a home final against one of Port, Richmond, Carlton or West Coast.
With their list rejuvenated and health the new black thanks to the return of Beams, Lynch, Keefe, the red hot form of the Swan/Pendlebury duo and the new found flexibility of Ben Reid becoming a permanent forward have added an extra coat of gloss to the Pies.
Their opponents Gold Coast will be eyeing off another three or so wins before looking ahead to next season and making a charge at finals footy. The Suns currently sit 14th on the ladder, possess a 3-4 record at Metricon and have come along in leaps and bounds this year.
The two teams have average win/loss margins of 33-42 (Pies) and 32-31 (Suns) which suggests a blowout could be on the cards. Combined this season the pair has only played in three games with a margin of 10 points or less. Let’s hope they can add to that and produce a close finish this week.

Collingwood Key IndicatorsThe Magpies came into season 2013 with a clear plan to up the pace of their ball movement using short kicks and quick handball through the corridor or down the wings. Collingwood ranks fifth for effective kicks, sixth for kicking efficiency and leads the competition in uncontested possession, so they’re great at finding that much needed space that teams crave in today’s game.
When this movement slows down with a kick backwards or picking an option without freedom to run turnovers accumulate quickly, as other teams have adequate time to combat with a defensive setup of their own. Teams have been having great success on the counter when facing the Pies (just look at Port a fortnight ago) thanks to Collingwood gifting the fourth most field turnovers in the competition this season.
From a restriction perspective Gold Coast ranks among the bottom three sides for opponent effective kicks, kicking efficiency, total kicks, total disposals, uncontested marks and uncontested possession, whilst forcing the 13th fewest field turnovers. Assuming conditions are dry Collingwood should have little trouble playing this one on their terms through dominating possession and finding plenty of space.
That resulting space sees the inside 50 numbers explode and makes Travis Cloke’s job a whole lot easier. With Quinten Lynch in contention to return, and the emergence of Jarrod Witts and Ben Reid up forward the Magpies predictable reliance on Cloke has loosened. Collingwood ranks second in the competition for marks inside 50 and fifth for inside 50’s but their overall ranking of 12th for goal scoring efficiency is still a concern.
In their losses this year Collingwood hasn’t experienced a major disparity in any of their primary indicators outside of a whopping differential in scoring efficiency. The Magpies goal scoring efficiency differential of -12.4% in losses is the second worst in the competition behind only Essendon.
If Collingwood’s entries are predictable and there’s zero flexibility up forward their opponents thrive. This is one area where Gold Coast may have some success as on the year they’ve held their opponents to the eighth worst goal scoring efficiency in the competition, although if Rory Thompson is absent this essentially goes up in flames.

Gold Coast Key IndicatorsThe Suns keep things pretty simple and play as direct as possible. Given their list is still a few years off being ripe it makes sense to embed the basics first and gradually implement a game style once you know exactly what you’ve got.
Gold Coast has a clear focus on winning first use and they do so impressively behind the strength of their midfield which is ranked top ten in the AFL for clearances, contested possession and inside 50s. When the likes of Ablett, O’Meara, Bennell and Prestia get their hands on the footy success comes, as shown by their healthy differential in wins where the midfield is concerned.
The next box to tick for the Suns will be formulating a game style that will allow them to have a stronger grasp on controlling a game. Gold Coast is among the bottom six sides in kicking efficiency, marks, uncontested marks and commit the fifth most field turnovers. Their play lacks urgency and often moves at a snails pace which plays into the hands of teams who are disciplined defensively. Against the Tigers last week we often saw the Suns stonewalled when looking downfield which resulted in panic and plenty of handball which often led to turnovers.
What the Suns really need is a go to power forward to compliment the blossoming midfield and reverse their below average scoring punch as they currently rank dead last for goal scoring efficiency.  Injuries to talls Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch and Zac Smith haven’t helped, nor has their bottom ranked set shot accuracy. When Aaron Hall and Campbell Brown are your primary firing power up forward you’re going to have issues.
As for their opponents this week, without the ball Collingwood operates defensively through a team-wide zone, which works well against opponents lacking in the skills department (such as Gold Coast) and can be successful against the best of the best if pressure is high (like we saw against Geelong).
The Magpies issue is that they’ve lacked discipline and focus at times this season and haven’t reached the consistent heights they’d like, but the potential is there. Collingwood force the sixth most field turnovers of any side in the competition and are top three at restricting opponent clearances, contested possession and inside 50’s which are all hallmarks of the Suns operation.
Where the Magpies have struggled is limiting opposition weight of disposal, space and scoring ability. Collingwood ranks ninth for opponent kicking efficiency, goals and total disposals, tenth for uncontested marks, 11th for scoring efficiency (only current top 8 side ranked outside the top 10) and 13th for goal kicking efficiency (along with Port Adelaide are the only current top 8 side outside the top ten) which suggests they leak far too many scores too easily.

Scoring SourcesCollingwood and Gold Coast source their scoring output via opposite means. The Magpies rely on transition and opposition turnovers, whilst the Suns ride their talented midfield’s output at stoppages to any success which should make for an interesting encounter.
Collingwood ranks 11th in points from stoppages differential compared to the Suns who are seventh. The focus for the Pies will be on implementing a disciplined zone to restrict supply and free flowing run through the corridor.
For Gold Coast they’ll need to bring their skills to the table and shut down the Magpies transition that sees Collingwood ranking sixth for points from turnover differential compared to Gold Coast who rank 14th.

Who will win and why?There’s no doubt the Suns are improving quickly and will be a force as soon as next season. All the signs are there and the talent is undeniable. What’s also undeniable is Gold Coast’s recent form slump which sees them on a four game losing streak and their indicators completely bombing.
With Swan and Pendlebury in devastating form, and the rest of the squad starting to click there’s little reason to forecast anything but a comfortable Collingwood win this weekend. With games against Essendon, Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast and North Melbourne still to come dropping games to the likes of the Suns could potentially ruin their season and there’s nothing the Suns would love more.
Gold Coast is never out of a contest but until they show a resurgence in form expect the Pies to come out focused with plenty on the line.
Tip
: Collingwood by 35 points

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