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It's September, and in the world of AFL that means one thing, FINALS. This weekend the 2013 AFL Premiership final series begins in earnest with all four games being played in the state of Victoria. At the MCG on Saturday night sixth will play seventh in the second elimination final. The sixth placed team, Collingwood, earned the right to host a first week final with a 14 win and 8 loss record at the end of the home and away season. The Magpies were thought of as a premiership contender before the season started but injuries and other factors have left the Pies outside the top four heading into the finals. Their opponents this week, the seventh placed Port Adelaide Power have been the biggest improver's' in the AFL this season moving up 14th position last season. Port have been one of the stories of 2013 as under new coach Ken Hinkley the South Australian team has risen back into the top eight for the first time since they lost the 2007 Grand Final. Of course, Port only had the 8th best win/loss record but with the removal of Essendon from the finals for bringing the game into disrepute via a drug use scandal, Port now find themselves facing the Pies instead of Richmond. These two sides met once in the regular season and in that round 14 matchup in Adelaide it was the Power who came away with a 35 point victory. It may well have been the best win of Port's season but more so it was the authoritative nature of the win that would give them confidence leading into this final. On that slippery night at AAMI Stadium the Power really did dominate for most of the match, taking the lead just before quarter time and never letting it slip. Port's forwards were very dangerous on the night with Schulz and Westhoff kicking 3 each and Monfries getting two of his own. It may well be a different looking Magpies outfit that the Power meet this week, and it's at the Pies home ground but they've done it once and Port will believe they can do it again. This will be the third meeting in the finals between the Pies and Power with Collingwood winning both previous finals in 2002 and 2003. The best thing about the finals is you know what you are going to get in terms of intensity, it will be on from the opening bounce and won't let up until one team has secured a safe enough lead to take victory. This one is a win or go home game as the name suggests (Elimination Final) so there really is no holding back for both teams this Saturday night. Strangely enough it will only be Port's second visit to the MCG this year, with their only match being way back in round 1 versus Melbourne. Whether that's a distinct advantage or not for the Magpies will be determined come 7.45pm on Saturday night. PREVIOUS FORM Since the round 13 win over the Magpies, Port Adelaide have struggled to really get back to the level of football they were playing before and during that game. They've only won 4 of their last 9 games and none of those victories came over top 8 sides with the highest credential win in that period being over fellow South Australians the Crows. Last weekend the Power looked back in form though as they built a massive lead over Carlton in their final home and away game, only to fade late as the desperate Carlton (who needed to win to book a finals berth) ran over the top and came away with a dramatic one point win. Port, not unlike Collingwood did the next day versus North Melbourne, didn't really need to win that game and you could see their intensity and effort drop off as the game went on. The positive for Port is that they came through the game with a clean bill of health and will look to regain several players that they rested or have been missing over the past few weeks. Collingwood's form is almost the complete opposite to the Powers' in that they are in season best form. The Magpies had won 4 of their last 5 games leading into last Sunday's glorified practice match versus North Melbourne but never looked to be going full pace during the loss to the Roos. With Nathan Brown already subbed off back up ruckman Quinten Lynch badly rolled his ankle and from then on you could see the Pies players shift into conservation mode for the finals. Even then the Pies found themselves with a lead close to 3 goals in the second half before North finally got over the top of the Pies by 11 points. There were positives to come out of even such a non defensive style of game though with Travis Cloke and Ben Reid combining for 10 goals and club champion Alan Didak looking back near his best with a performance than may well have secured him a place in the 22 this week. The Pies also go into this game pretty well off physically with those with got injured on the weekend likely to play and some other big names certain to return also. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW It's been a somewhat frustrating year for the Collingwood Football Club but after all the trials and tribulations they have endured the Magpies find themselves hosting a home final. The positives this season for them have been the emergence of some absolute star youngsters and the improvement from some of their other players. Of course the negatives were the injuries to several key players with Dale Thomas, Alex Fasolo and Alan Toovey playing very little part in the season. All 3 of those players have been badly missed but in their place others have been given opportunity and thrived. It seems almost certain that Marley Williams, Lachlan Keeffe, Josh Thomas, Brodie Grundy, Jamie Elliott and Paul Seedsman will all line up this weekend and at the start of the season only a few of these young players would have been considered a chance of breaking into this strong Collingwood line up for the finals. Ever since Nathan Buckley took over the reigns as senior coach at the end of the 2011 season the club legend has been trying to put his own stamp on this side and you can see that only now is that coming to fruition. The Magpies are now league leaders in terms of disposals which is a marked difference from the side that played under Mick Malthouse for all those years. As we head into the 2013 final series there are a few areas where the Magpies have to improve though if they are to go deep into September. All season the Pies have struggled in the ruck but the emergence of first year player Brodie Grundy has seemed to cover that in the past 7 games. Collingwood also sits well down the ladder for centre clearances although one could easily link that to their ruck struggles before the phenom that is Grundy came along. That statistic has also come about because of the absence of Dale Thomas, Luke Ball and Dayne Beams for a lot of the season although Beams and Ball will be part of the midfield this weekend. Collingwood's forward line seems to have turned a corner recently with the move of Ben Reid up forward taking a lot of pressure of Travis Cloke who previously, and you can use the last time the Pies played Port as a prime example, had been ganged up on by 2-3 defenders at a time. Cloke missed out on the Coleman medal on the weekend by 2 goals but there's little doubt he is one of the biggest threats to Port Adelaide this weekend. At selection this week there could be as many as 6 changes for Collingwood depending on the fitness of some of those under injury clouds at the moment. Luke Ball, Jamie Elliott, Harry O'Brien, Ben Sinclair, Darren Jolly and Clinton Young will all be pushing for inclusion in the final 22 this weekend which places pressure on those fringe players who played below par over the past few weeks. It's hard to really decipher just who will miss out but Ben Kennedy and Jordan Russell seem the two most likely to be unlucky when the teams are announced on Thursday night. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS It's been a sensational season for the Port Adelaide Football Club, rising from 14th last season to now be a part of the 2013 finals series. Most have praised the youth at Port as the major reason for their resurgence but there's more to it than just that, as first year coach Ken Hinkley has also rejuvenated the careers of some of Port's older players with Kane Cornes being a great example of that. Yes the Power have had an easier draw than most in the 8 but there's no one out there who would argue that they don't deserve to be in the finals. While it may be a great achievement by the Power just to make the finals you can bet that all week Hinkley will be drilling into them that this is an opportunity they have to grab with both hands because you never know if, or when you'll be back again. The Power have become a far more defensive minded team under their new coach than in previous years as shown by them being ranked third for total tackles throughout the home and away rounds. Port isn't coming to Melbourne this week just to make up the numbers and when you look at the talent they possess they could be a real threat to the Magpies this weekend. The Port Adelaide midfield is a grossly under rated area of the ground. Cornes, Boak, Ebert and Cassisi are the experience that lead the way and they have all had very good seasons. It's been the youth though that has taken this midfield grouping to another level with Oliver Wines and Chad Wingard enabling this side to rotate even more players through the midfield than was probably first planned. If there is a weakness it is in the ruck with Matthew Lobbe taking most of the ruck contests and that is likely to be the approach this week also. Like the Pies youngster Grundy, Lobbe is entrusted with enduring for the majority of the game and the matchup between the two young rucks should be enthralling in itself. Of course the Pies have a very strong midfield with Pendlebury, Ball, Beams and Swan at the core but Port defeated a similar midfield back in round 14 (No Beams) and will be confident of at least matching it with them this week. The Port defense is a very stable grouping who has worked very effectively together in season 2013. Led by the two talls of Alipate Carlile and Jackson Trengove it hasn't really conceded a heap of goals to any one player and was really restrictive last time the two sides met. The Power's medium defenders include Broadbent, Hombsch, O'Shea, Jonas and Broadbent and together they provide a good mix of both defensive ability and run out of the defensive half. The main difference Port will face this week in defense is matchup up on Ben Reid, who back in round 14 wasn't even playing against them let alone playing as a very scary forward. Reid and Cloke booted 10 goals between them last week and if that wasn't ominous enough small forward Jamie Elliott, Collingwood's second leader goal kicker, is likely to return also this weekend. Port will back themselves to be able to restrict the dangerous Pies forwards enough to keep them in the game. The Power's forward line in 2013 has been very dangerous and has been led by four main players for the majority of the season. Jay Schulz, Chad Wingard, Justin Westhoff and Angus Monfries have all had very good seasons up forward and on their day any one of them is capable of kicking a bag of goals. The probable return of Robbie Gray this week adds just another dimension to a forward line that worried Collingwood significantly back in round 14. The Collingwood backline has improved since that last meeting though with Lachlan Keeffe and Marley Williams really making an impact down back. Nathan Brown's form has also stayed consistently strong and he is likely to get first crack at Schulz on Saturday night. If Port can get the ball inside their forward 50 and deliver it cleanly their forwards are more than capable of putting a score on the board that can worry the Pies. Port Adelaide go into this game with a good bill of health considering we've just completed a 23 week, 22 round AFL home and away season. They are almost certain to get Hartlett, Gray and Carlile back and there's several others who performed well in the SANFL last weekend who will be pushing for selection also. The Power have been one of, if not the revelation of season 2013 and you sense they won't be gun shy against the Pies this weekend. Coach Ken Hinkley will implore his team to stick to the "no limits" theme that has taken them so far and I fully expect we'll see a better Port outfit than we've seen in recent weeks. It's a big game for the Port Adelaide football club but they will perform admirably and if the Magpies are just slightly off their game the Power may cause a big upset here. A THOUGHT ABOUT JOHN MCCARTHY It's fitting that almost 12 months to the day after ex Collingwood and Port Adelaide player John McCarthy lost his life in an accident in Las Vegas that his two former sides meet in a final. There's sure to be some emotional thoughts at times about J-Mac from his mates at both clubs. TIP Finals are unpredictable but at the same time some of the aspects of the game are predictable. You know each team is going to play with a high intensity, you know they are both going to leave everything on the field and you also know that it will be a highly contested and physical game. Of course there are questions over whether the younger players in both teams will be able to handle their first taste of finals action but you get the feeling that they will handle it quite well. The Power come into the game with a respectively shorter injury list than the Pies and this gives them a chance of at least being competitive for large periods of the game. The media is talking up Collingwood as the one side from outside the top four who could make a premiership run this September but first and foremost every Collingwood player, and Port player too, will be focussed on bringing their "A game" this weekend. The Pies haven't been in better form all year and although the Power have the extra days rest I think it's the team in black and white that will win here and advances to week two of the finals. MAGPIES BY 19 POINTS. LAST TIME: Port Adelaide 13.8 (86) def. Collingwood 7.9 (51), Round 14, 2013 at AAMI Stadium WALKING WOUNDED: There's plenty of intrigue surrounding team selections for both sides heading into Saturday night's final. According to coach Nathan Buckley the Magpies have one of their best injury lists in recent times. This may prove the undoing for popular veteran Alan Didak. Despite being in good form with 24 possessions against North Melbourne, his position will come under most pressure by several youngsters who seem to have recovered from various problems. Jamie Elliott is one player that could come in for Didak, despite missing just two weeks with a hamstring injury, while Ben Sinclair (shoulder) is another. Luke Ball (calf) should also return to the side, putting pressure on Jarryd Blair while Harry O'Brien, a late withdrawal last week with the flu, should come back at Jordan Russell's expense. According to Buckley, Quinten Lynch (ankle) and Nathan Brown (knee) will both play, however Lynch only did controlled work at training this week and could be replaced by veteran Darren Jolly. Jack Frost has also been earmarked to replace Brown if necessary, while some suggestions have been raised that Clinton Young could be a surprise starter. Port Adelaide meanwhile, also face some selection dilemmas as they look likely to bring three senior players back. Hamish Hartlett (suspension), Robbie Gray (quad tightness) and Alipate Carlile (back) all look likely to play. Brent Renouf could find himself in the gun as he was the late replacement for Gray last week, while Lewis Stevenson could make way for Hartlett. Port coach Ken Hinkley has raised the likelihood of Jake Neade playing after posting 22 touches and a goal in the SANFL while Matt Thomas' physical work may be needed in a cut-throat final after he had 30 SANFL touches last weekend. FORM: The Magpies head into this clash with reasonable form behind them. Collingwood have won three of their last five matches and two of those have been seriously good displays, the Pies showing off their best intensity of the season in wins over Sydney and Essendon. They were far from disgraced against Hawthorn before slaughtering a hapless West Coast in the second-last round. The loss to North Melbourne last Sunday is hard to read, but the Pies say they took their foot off the gas in the second half in what was a meaningless contest. Port, meanwhile, have won just two of their last five games and may be somewhat concerned by their form. Their four-point Showdown victory over Adelaide was one of the greatest wins of the season as they stormed home from 22 points down late in the contest. Since then, they have beaten a Gold Coast side going through the motions somewhat while losing to Geelong and being smashed by Fremantle. Although it was a meaningless clash for the Port, the Power found themselves 38 points ahead of Carlton last Saturday night as well, but once again struggled to contain an opposition run-on as the Blues ignited in the final term to win by a point. WE THINK: It was a tale of contrasts the last time these sides met. For Port, their win over Collingwood came just a week after they stunned the Swans and certainly represented a high-point in the season for the Power as they announced themselves genuine finals contenders. For the Magpies, their loss to Port was just about their season low-point as their lack of intensity in this contest led some to question whether they would even make the finals in 2013. But from that point on, the Pies have only lost to Gold Coast (another game where their intensity dipped), Hawthorn and North Melbourne. They have recovered several senior players while other junior members of the side have continued to grow and made themselves into regular contributors, players like Sam Dwyer and Marley Williams. Confronted by Port's ferocious pressure in the last game, Collingwood buckled, but in the last month the Magpies have re-discovered the manic intensity that marked their big campaigns in 2010 and 2011 and with it has come big wins over Sydney, Essendon and West Coast. Port, meanwhile, may look at what worked in Round 14 and do it again. The Power deployed Kane Cornes on Harry O'Brien and seriously limited his rebound work off half-back as Dom Cassisi tagged Scott Pendlebury. Port also sent two and even three defenders at times down to Travis Cloke, curtailing his influence on the game as the Pies, under heaps of pressure up the ground, simply bombed the ball forward in hope. Although some poor winter conditions didn't help Collingwood's cause, their score of 7.9 (51) was their lowest for the season. Port will be sure to be pumped up for this encounter. Playing in September for the first time since losing the 2007 Grand Final to Geelong, the young Power side have absolutely nothing to lose from this encounter. The fact they're even in the finals after the dodgy Matthew Primus years is a major achievement in itself, especially for impressive first-year coach Ken Hinkley. However only 10 Port players have finals experience and they are coming up against a Collingwood side who have featured in September in every season since 2006. And, that finals experience could prove telling. Along with playing in September, one wonders if emotion will play a part in this encounter. In a sad twist, this game falls just two days shy of the first anniversary of John McCarthy's death. The tragic loss of McCarthy, the former Pie who played a season for Port before his death in Las Vegas, will be on the minds of many of the players, as suggested by Port vice-captain Brad Ebert during the week. Both Ebert and Collingwood's Brent Macaffer have said McCarthy's passing has forged a bond between the Port and Pies players. But all that will be forgotten on Saturday night as these two sides face off in a game that may be tighter than expected. Collingwood by 22 points. Who would have picked this back in March? The Pies were always considered good things for the finals, but the expectation was that they were a top four side that would start their finals series from the top four. Ken Hinkley took over as coach of Port Adelaide and while there was expected to be improvement, another year of pain and suffering was the likely outcome. Instead they meet in an MCG final. LAST FIVE TIMES R14, 2013, Port Adelaide 13.8 (86) d Collingwood 7.9 (51) at AAMI Stadium R4, 2012, Collingwood 14.13 (97) d Port Adelaide 10.13 (73) at Etihad Stadium R20, 2011, Collingwood 23.21 (159) d Port Adelaide 3.3 (21) at AAMI Stadium R1, 2011, Collingwood 24.11 (155) d Port Adelaide 12.8 (80) at Etihad Stadium R15, 2010, Collingwood 16.9 (105) d Port Adelaide 12.7 (79) at AAMI Stadium 2013 meeting Round 14 @ AAMI Stadium: Port Adelaide 13.8 (86) def Collingwood 7.9 (51): Port Adelaide leapfrogged Collingwood into seventh on the ladder after this siren-to-siren win in their only clash of the season. Matthew Broadbent had 34 touches and Brad Ebert 30, while Jay Schulz kicked three goals. Port was too tough in the clinches throughout and this win, which came a week after beating the Sydney Swans, confirmed once and for all that Port was the real deal in 2013. Key match-ups Scott Pendlebury v Kane Cornes: The master midfielder versus a tagger who is still at the top of his craft. Port must curb one of Pendlebury or Dane Swan to win. Brodie Grundy v Matthew Lobbe: Lobbe has quietly become an effective AFL ruckman and a weapon for Port. Grundy has been a star in his first seven games but must now step up to a final. Travis Cloke v Alipate Carlile: Cloke leads the AFL in contested marks and his first half last week against North was ominous. Carlile needs to put the clamps on him nice and early. Wildcards Collingwood: Players and fans seem united in their wish for veteran goalsneak Alan Didak to remain in the Magpie line-up. Didak loves the big stage and is playing every game as if it might be his last. Imagine the lift for Collingwood if he jags one early. Port Adelaide: Port lacks finals experience, but one player used to big games at the MCG is Angus Monfries. And he loves a goal. Or five. Plan B Collingwood: Do the Pies trust the Grundy/Quinten Lynch rotation for their rucks? Has Lynch done enough? Is there room for Darren Jolly as well? Port Adelaide: Travis Boak is Port's most complete player and ideally will be given free rein. But if one of the elite Magpie midfielders gets on a roll, he may have to jump into some sort of run-with role. THE SIX POINTS 1. This will be the 24th clash between the sides and Collingwood holds the advantage winning 13 games to 11. At the MCG the sides have met six times for three wins each; they haven't played at the MCG since early in 2009. 2. This will be only the third finals contest between the sides. In a 2002 qualifying final at AAMI Stadium the Pies won by 13 points, while in a 2003 peliminary final the Pies won by 44 points at the MCG. 3. Collingwood will be playing in its 177th finals match for 77 wins, 94 losses and five draws. No team has played in more finals in league history. Port Adelaide will be playing its 18th final and first since the 2007 Grand Final. They have eight wins and nine losses. 4. The Magpies will be playing in their eighth consecutive finals series, something they last achieved in 1925-32. 5. Collingwood is the most experienced team in the 2013 finals, with a combined total of 340 finals matches, led by 22 games each to veterans Darren Jolly and Alan Didak. Port Adelaide has only 42 games of finals experience combined - Kane Cornes topping the list with 14. 6. Despite his dominance of the AFL's contested marking stats, Cloke is only ranked No.122 in the Official AFL Player Rankings brought to you by Vero. Chad Wingard is the leading Port forward, coming in at No.59. |
LAST TIME Round 14, AAMI Stadium PORT ADELAIDE 4.2 7.3 8.6 13.8 (86) COLLINGWOOD 2.3 4.5 5.6 7.9 (51) GOALS Port Adelaide: Schulz 3, Westhoff 3, Monfries 2, Wingard 2, Brad Ebert, Wines, Boak. Collingwood: Dwyer 2, Cloke 2, Kennedy, Elliott, Maxwell. BEST Port Adelaide: Brad Ebert, Broadbent, Cornes, Hartlett, Boak, Moore. Collingwood: Seedsman, Maxwell, Pendlebury, Hudson, Russell, Ball. INJURIES Port Adelaide: Cassisi (hamstring) UMPIRES Donlon, Stevic, Bannister. CROWD 31,121 at AAMI Stadium. " ...despite so many quality players missing, and fielding seven players with fewer than 30 AFL games experience, don't for one moment make any excuses for the Pies. The desire was there, but the ability to withstand the amazing pressure Port applied was not." - Ashley Porter Port Adelaide, at the peak of its confidence after a stunning upset of Sydney, confirmed its finals credentials by overpowering a disorganised Magpie unit left exposed by injuries to ruckman Darren Jolly and key backman Ben Reid. Port put two and three defenders on Travis Cloke, but the Magpies were put under such intense pressure that they continued to kick to their beleaguered key forward. After a tight scrap, the Magpies buckled meekly in the final term, not for the first time in 2013, and their skill deficiencies under fierce tackling pressure brought their campaign under the microscope. In the following weeks, the Magpies gradually got senior players back from injury, and their form improved. Port never again reached the same heights, losing games to Essendon and Hawthorn in succession, qualifying for the finals by scratching out gritty, desperate wins over bottom eight teams. HISTORY Collingwood 13 Port Adelaide 10 LAST FIVE Collingwood 4 Port Adelaide 1 LAST 10 Collingwood 8 Port Adelaide 2 SINCE 2008 Rnd 14, 2013, AAMI: Port 35 Rnd 4, 2012, Etihad: Coll 24 Rnd 20, 2011, AAMI: Coll 138 Rnd 1 2011, Etihad: Coll 75 Rnd 15, 2010, AAMI: Coll 26 Rnd 10, 2009, MCG: Coll 38 Rnd 20, 2008: AAMI: Coll 31 THE RECENT FORMLINE Collingwood WWWLWL Port Adelaide WWLWLL AGAINST CURRENT TOP FIVE Collingwood 3-4 Port Adelaide 1-4 AT MCG Collingwood 3 Port Adelaide 3 FINALS Collingwood 2 Port Adelaide 0 HOME AND AWAY SEASON AVERAGES Collingwood Disposals: 381.7 (1st) Eff Disposals %: 72.9 (5th) Inside 50s: 54.8 (4th) % Scores Times I50: 49.6 (8th) Tackles (Diff): 7.6 (1st) Clearance (Diff): -0.5 (12th) Contested Poss (Diff): 5.5 (6th) Uncontested Poss (Diff): 22.9 (2nd) Port Adelaide Disposals: 363.1 (11th) Eff Disposals: 70.3 (18th) Inside 50s: 52.0 (9th) % Scores Times I50: 49.1 (11th) Tackles (Diff): 0.6 (=8th) Clearance (Diff): 0.2 (9th) Contested Poss (Diff): -1.2 (11th) Uncontested Poss (Diff): 14.7 (6th) WHAT IT MEANS Collingwood's lack of scoring options in the forward line has been well known all year - as evidenced by its relatively poor rate of conversion of inside 50 entries. Less well-known is the failure of its heralded midfield at clearances. Good once the ball is in motion, Collingwood's midfield struggles to break free of stoppages, opponents often gaining a big advantage, especially with decisive breakaways from the centre square. Power concentrated on both weaknesses in round 14, dominating around the many packs, and holding the Magpies to just seven goals. Port's numbers are unimpressive, proving that many of their wins were achieved against the odds, testimony to effort and cohesive teamwork rather than elite ball movement. MAGPIES WIN With their strongest team of the year in place, the Magpies midfield is able to match the tackling pressure of the Power on-ballers who so stymied them two months ago. With Ben Reid splitting the focus of Port's defenders, the Magpies avoid a Cloke-centric attack, and are able to eke out a winning score by restricting the free-running Power kids. An edge in finals experience and a little more depth provide the Magpies enough scoring opportunities to hold a confident upstart at bay. POWER WIN Playing with the freedom born of a season with no limits, Port shocks the hot favourites, again winning the clearances and cramping the Magpie big men in attack. With Ben Reid and Travis Cloke's influence minimised, the Magpies struggle to score, taking liberties in the midfield which are punished by an ultra hard-working Power running brigade. For Collingwood to win the premiership in 2013, it must do something no other side has managed under the current finals system: win from outside the top four. Before casting their focus too far ahead, the Magpies have an extremely dangerous Elimination Final to contend with against Port Adelaide. The Power are the good news story of 2013. Under new coach Ken Hinkley, Port Adelaide has turned itself from a cellar dweller into a finalist and has earned its spot in the top eight. With such a young, exciting midfield, Port Adelaide will cause the Magpies some serious headaches and knows that a win against Collingwood in a final will establish its credentials as one of the top sides in the competition. It has been a topsy-turvy year for the Magpies but they enter the finals in genuinely good form and have managed to peak at the right time of the year. Despite still having injuries to key players, the Magpies are as strong on paper as they have been over the last two years and will be a side that most top eight teams will fear if they can find top gear. Both sides are coming off a loss in round 23, but were importantly able to rest key players. Collingwood's loss can be excused considering the game against North Melbourne was a dead rubber and there was very little defensive pressure from both sides. However, coach Nathan Buckley would be concerned with some of the sloppy ball use, which has been an issue for the Magpies over the last month, and will also be concerned by the ease with which North Melbourne won the clearances. Port Adelaide had a shock loss to Carlton after leading by as much as seven goals. The Blues had plenty to play for considering a top eight spot was up for grabs, but nonetheless were able to expose the Power in the last quarter. On the one hand, Hinkley will put little emphasis on this loss considering Port Adelaide's focus was always going to be on week one of the finals. On the other hand, the Blues may have knocked Port Adelaide around a little bit and were able to handle the pressure moments of the game better. I expect both sides to put the losses of round 23 behind them very quickly and we should see a great battle at the MCG this Saturday night. Recent History The Power took their biggest scalp of the year when they beat the Magpies in round 14 by 35 points. Port Adelaide was able to expose Collingwood for foot-speed, work rate and intensity. Port Adelaide also showed a higher level of fitness, kicking five goals to two in the last quarter to run out the game much stronger. Matthew Broadbent was Port Adelaide's most prolific ball-winner, racking up 34 disposals, while Kane Cornes continued his stellar season with 31. Skipper Travis Boak was also dominant with 30 disposals and a goal. Chad Wingard was able to work through the Brent Macaffer tag to pick up 21 disposals and kick two vital goals, whilst Schulz kicked three goals for the victors. Youngster Oliver Wines had 26 disposals after starting as the sub. For the Magpies, Paul Seedsman had one of his best games of the season picking up 34 possessions across half back and Nick Maxwell and Scott Pendlebury had 28 each. It was otherwise a sorry tale for the Magpies, with many stars well down on form such as Dane Swan who just couldn't get into the game (only picking up 23 disposals and spending a lot of time up forward). At the Selection Table Both coaches have significant dilemmas ahead of selection this round. With a host of players pushing for selection, some tough calls will have to be made as to who will make room. Starting with the Magpies, and Luke Ball looks certain to return to boost the midfield. His presence cannot be underestimated. Harry O'Brien should also be an automatic selection after he was a late withdrawal last week with the flu. Also pushing for selection this week are Jamie Elliott and Ben Sinclair, who both have to pass fitness tests. Elliott, in particular, is pivotal to the forward line set up. Despite the low intensity hitout against North Melbourne, the Magpies came out of the match with injury concerns for Nathan Brown and Quinten Lynch. If Lynch does not pull up, it may pave way for ruckman Darren Jolly to return after solid form at VFL level in the last three weeks. Ben Hudson and Jarrod Witts will also put their hand up for the second ruck role. Clinton Young also returned in the VFL last week and showed promise. It is unfortunate for Young that the VFL season has now ended for the Magpies, and he may struggle to prove his fitness with no more match practice. Turning the focus onto Port Adelaide, and key playmaker Hamish Hartlett will be the most notable return for the Power from a shoulder dislocation. In fact, Hinkley may have close to a full list to choose from with Robbie Gray and Alipate Carlisle also looking likely to return. In fact, the only player on the Port Adelaide list who is unavailable is ruckman Jarrad Redden who is out for the season. It is an enviable position to be in as competition for spots is heating up and the Power has the luxury of playing their best side when it counts. On top of the players returning from injury, Jake Neade and Matt Thomas have been in strong form at SANFL level and seem like perfect finals players. Finding room may be the difficulty. The Collingwood forward line v the Port Adelaide backline At the beginning of the year, the Port Adelaide backline seemed like the weakest link in the side. The departure of Troy Chaplin seemingly left a big hole in the spine. As the year has worn on, the backline has quickly become a strength, with players such as Jack Hombsch, Jackson Trengove, Jasper Pittard, Tom Logan, Cameron O'Shea and Tom Jonas really emerging as a solid defensive unit in conjunction with Alipate Carlile. The ability to throw Justin Westhoff behind the ball also adds a solid Plan B and has worked throughout the year. Collingwood on the other hand has struggled to find the best mix up forward. Nonetheless, Travis Cloke is in good form, coming off a five goal haul last week to narrowly miss out on the Coleman Medal. Ben Reid has also continued his strong form as a forward, also booting five goals (and nine over the past fortnight). Alan Didak has added some class to the forward half while a number of midfield types such as Jarryd Blair, Steele Sidebottom, Josh Thomas and Sam Dwyer have been getting forward to assist. You feel as if the Pies really miss Elliott up forward considering he is a tenacious tackler and a genuine goal-kicker. The absence of Andrew Krakouer, Dale Thomas and Alex Fasolo has also hit hard. I feel that Collingwood needs more from its small forwards if it is going to pose a genuine threat in September, which means Buckley may be sweating on the availability of Elliott. Key Matchup – Cloke v Carlisle For all the analysis, if Cloke has a big game then you feel Collingwood will win this game. Cloke is a proven finals performer and is having a career best season, so he will prove the key player this Saturday night again. Carlisle should be fresh after missing last week but will have his work cut out with Cloke who leads the competition for contested marks. For him to be at his most effective, Collingwood's delivery needs to be better than it was last week. The Midfield The midfield battle as always will be very decisive. Collingwood has the proven A-Graders with finals experience, while Port Adelaide has the youth and x-factor. Port Adelaide's ball movement and skill level has also been at a consistently higher level than the Magpies and they have a nice blend of inside and outside players. I get the feeling that the star-studded Collingwood midfield will look to assert its dominance early and intimidate its younger opponents. But Port Adelaide has some real class with Chad Wingard, Hamish Hartlett, Brad Ebert and Travis Boak all developing into elite players in 2013. I expect that Buckley will look to shut down at least two or three of these players on Saturday night, leaving a greater responsibility on the second stringers such as Broadbent and Wines. Port Adelaide has thrived on the contested footy this year, which has typically been an area Collingwood has excelled as well. However, clearances have become an issue for the Magpies, and North Melbourne exposed them in this area last weekend 25-12. Although the majority of the match-ups will be head to head, I expect to see the following two tags applied: Cornes v Pendlebury – Pendlebury was this week awarded with the AFL Coaches Association Award which is regarded as one of the most prestigious awards outside of the Brownlow Medal. After yet another dominant display against North Melbourne last week, I expect Hinkley to lock down on Pendlebury with his best and most reliable tagger in Kane Cornes. Cornes has had a stellar season himself, but you get the feeling that he will need to do this job for the team on Saturday night as Pendlebury is the most damaging Collingwood midfielder. Macaffer v Boak – Although the temptation will be to play Macaffer on Wingard again, I think Boak is the better match-up for Macaffer in both size and pace. Boak is the captain of Port Adelaide and the one who will need to lead his young midfield into this year's finals series. If Collingwood can limit Boak's influence, then it will leave a heavy burden on guys like Wines and Hartlett to fill the void. As Port Adelaide lacks the same level of finals experience, I think Buckley needs to target the leader and see if the others will fall. The Port Adelaide Forward Line v the Collingwood Defence The Collingwood defence has improved in the second half of the year, but question marks remain as to whether the move of Ben Reid into attack will expose the Magpies in September. But in his absence, Nathan Brown and Lachlan Keeffe have been in good form and Tyson Goldsack and Nick Maxwell are versatile enough to play on most opponents. The emergence of Marley Williams as a small defender has filled the big void left by Alan Toovey, while Heath Shaw's form has been good over the last fortnight. Port Adelaide has a nice blend up forward, with Jay Schulz the main weapon and Westhoff the x-factor. Robbie Gray and Angus Monfries are very dangerous players as well and can kick goals. Like Collingwood, Port Adelaide gets good service out of its midfielders in terms of goal kicking. Wingard, for example, is a noted goal-kicker and match-winner. Key Match-up Keeffe v Westhoff – Nathan Brown may find himself on Westhoff. Westhoff has had a breakout year in 2013, playing in a variety of roles for the side. He is a strong marking option with great speed and work ethic. Keeffe will have his work cut out for him considering Westhoff has the ability to work high up the ground and even float across half back. It will require a team effort to keep him in check as it is unlikely Keeffe will follow if Westhoff moves higher up the field. The Ruck: Grundy v Lobbe – This is going to be a fascinating battle between two young emerging rucks. Grundy's emergence over the past two months has been a real story, and he has faced off against the likes of Dean Cox, Todd Goldstein, Shane Mumford, Mike Pyke and Dean Brogan. Strangely, though, this could be Grundy's biggest test as it is a huge ask for a first year player to lead his side into a finals series. Lobbe is also a very athletic and quick man for his size and may expose Grundy should he tire later in the game. Although Grundy has matched it physically with some of the giants of the game, his biggest test may be whether he can match it with Lobbe athletically. Port Adelaide Player Analysis Chad Wingard – In only his second year, Wingard has set the AFL world alight. Although he is not the most prolific ball-winner, he still averages 21.4 disposals and has kicked a whopping 40 goals for the season having played all 22 matches. This includes match-winning solo efforts against Adelaide, where he kicked five goals, and Sydney, where he kicked three. Overall he averages just fewer than two goals a game, which is a huge effort for a half forward/midfield type player in only his second year. Brent Macaffer was used on him in round 14, but Wingard was still able to hit his average of 21 disposals and two goals. I am tipping Marley Williams to get the job this around in a run with role. Brad Ebert – Another who has played all 22 matches and has had a career best year. Since moving from West Coast, Ebert has thrived and has become one of the core components of this developing midfield. Averaging 23 disposals and five tackles a game, Ebert has become reliable and also a much better user of the football. Although much of the focus will go onto Boak, Hartlett and Wingard, Ebert is one player who can sneak under the radar and rack up the disposals. Angus Monfries – The former Essendon forward was recruited to Port Adelaide to deepen the midfield. Oddly enough, Monfries has settled himself as a forward again and is playing some terrific footy. He has kicked 37 goals for the year, and kicked a big bag of seven against Geelong only a few rounds ago. With so many other dangerous players to watch, Monfries is one the Magpies must keep an eye on. He may get the versatile Goldsack or Shaw as an opponent. Collingwood Player Analysis Heath Shaw – Heath needs a massive game on Saturday night as he is likely to square off against one of Port Adelaide's most dangerous forwards in either Monfries or Gray. On top of his defensive duties, Shaw is also responsible for generating a lot of run and carry out of defence. It is a huge task, however I think Shaw is at his best when he can play on an opponent and work off them as opposed to having a tagger go to him and shut him down. Dane Swan – Swan had one of his quietest games in as long as I can remember when these sides last met in round 14. Although 23 possessions is still a respectable tally, it was his inability to influence the game that was most surprising. Buckley tried utilising him as a forward but it didn't work. Expect a huge come back from Swan this weekend. He is also now in terrific form, and he is a favourite for the Brownlow considering his statistics match up to his numbers in his Brownlow Medal winning year of 2011. He averages an incredible 31.6 disposals. With Luke Ball and Dayne Beams both in the side, and with Pendlebury in sparkling form, expect Swan to run riot on the MCG this Saturday. Marley Williams – Williams is the story of the 2013 season for Collingwood in my opinion. Coming off the rookie list to fill the void of Alan Toovey, Williams has just got better with every game to the point that he is probably one of the first picked every week. His tenacity makes him a great back pocket and he has vastly solved Collingwood's issue of dealing with small forwards. I expect Williams to be thrown the big job of Wingard. However, if Buckley wants to use him closer to goal, then Robbie Gray may be his man. The Final Word When I analyse the Port Adelaide list, I realise that this is not going to be an easy first up final for the Magpies. Port Adelaide's midfield bats just as deep as Collingwood's, and there is goal scoring power there. Collingwood can expose Port Adelaide through its big forwards. Collingwood's defence is also more established on paper than Port Adelaide. The opening 10 minutes may be the most important for the Magpies. With a huge Collingwood army at the MCG, Port Adelaide will find it impossible to stop the momentum if the Magpies get off to a flyer. The Power needs to silence the Collingwood crowd early and not get overawed by the occasion. In round 14, Port Adelaide taught the Magpies a lesson. Since then, Collingwood has addressed its work rate and has become a much more ferocious team. The impact of Dayne Beams cannot be underestimated. Therefore, Collingwood needs to sharpen up its act around the stoppages and match Port Adelaide's intensity. Although Port Adelaide has become renowned as one of the fittest teams in the competition, you would expect the hardened bodies of the Collingwood players to step up in September when it counts and grind the Power into the ground. If not, it will be the earliest end to the season for the Magpies for some time. |
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