| 2017 AFL Round 3 COLLINGWOOD v SYDNEY Time & Place: Friday April 7, 7:50pm EST SCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm EST Weather: Min 14 Max 27 Chance of rain 20%: <1mm Wind: N 28kph Betting: Collingwood $3.55 Sydney $1.30 |
It's a crunch game considering both sides have lost their opening two matches.
A third straight loss to open the season puts the spotlight on any team's finals ambitions, so there is undoubtedly a lot riding on this game.
It's not as if either side has played bad football.
The Swans threw everything at the Western Bulldogs last week, but just ran out of legs late in the night. With such an extensive injury list, and three debutants selected in the side, it was a really impressive effort by Sydney after a disappointing round one loss. You have to go back to 1999 for the last time Sydney lost its opening three games.
On the other hand, the Magpies were again dominant in periods of last week's clash against Richmond, but lacked the firepower or efficiency up forward to put the game away. It was the second week in a row that Collingwood's midfield won plenty of the ball, but that dominance didn't translate onto the scoreboard.
It is a worrying trend for the Magpies, but at least coach Nathan Buckley knows that his side is winning enough of the football to win games of football. In some regards, Collingwood has been its own worst enemy in the past fortnight, and the situation could be a whole lot better if conversion in front of goal was improved.
Efficiency has been a big issue for both sides so far this year. Collingwood is ranked 15th in the competition for disposal efficiency, while Sydney is ranked 16th. This match could largely come down to which side is cleaner with the football and can capitalize most on its opportunities.
The Swans will undoubtedly head into this game as favorites, especially since they have a dominant record against Collingwood at the SCG. But Collingwood has always been a good traveling side, and should enjoy the underdog status this week.
Recent History
These sides last met way back in round one last season, in a match most Collingwood supporters have put to the back of their mind. The Swans made an early statement with an 80-point thumping against the Pies, while Collingwood's season was thrown into early disarray, especially following the career-ending injury to Dane Swan in the opening five minutes of the game.
A dominant Sydney midfield, led by Luke Parker, ran absolutely rampant. Parker earned the three Brownlow Medal votes with 40 disposals and a goal, while Tom Mitchell polled two votes after a 30-disposal and three-goal game. Kieren Jack and Jake Lloyd were both prominent as well with 35 disposals, but it was Lance Franklin who polled the final vote with four goals.
At the Selection Table
It's a big week at the selection table for Collingwood. Travis Varcoe will slot straight back in after he served his one match suspension, while Levi Greenwood also looks to be over his hip complaint and will push for selection as well.
It was a sight for sore eyes for Magpie fans to see Jamie Elliott and Daniel Wells complete full training on Wednesday, but both may require at least one more week of training before being available for selection. Mason Cox and Ben Crocker are also on the selection radar this week.
Sydney is battling an extensive injury list at the moment, which worsened last week when Kurt Tippett rolled his ankle in the last quarter. He joins Isaac Heeney, Alex Johnson, Jarrad McVeigh, Tom Papley, Dane Rampe, Dan Robinson and Gary Rohan on the sidelines. Heeney and Rohan were outside chances to return this week, but will likely miss at least another week. With Tippett out, Callum Sinclair or Darcy Cameron are likely to be named to add cover. Shaun Edwards and Brandon Jack are also pushing for selection if required.
Focus on Collingwood
In almost all statistical categories, the Magpies have been really good all season. But there are three statistics that are quite alarming right now, and they are goal kicking accuracy (ranked last in the competition), disposal efficiency (ranked 15th) and tackling (ranked 15th).
The tackling statistic is quite a surprising one considering this is an area which Collingwood typically prides itself on. The heat this week was put onto Collingwood's midfield, and Adam Treloar even acknowledged that tackling was an area that had to be improved. In some regards, it is hard to tackle your opponent when you are the one with the ball, but it has been noticeable that Collingwood's tackling pressure in general has been down.
I'm sure Collingwood has worked hard this week with its set shot kicking. Even Alex Fasolo, who is Collingwood's most accurate shot on goal, just couldn't get his radar working last week. Simply put, if the Magpies convert, they can definitely cause an upset.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Tim Broomhead – Broomhead has had such a difficult run with injury, so it was good to see him return to the side last week. Although he only had 12 disposals, everything he did was very classy and he had a hand in numerous scoring chains. On a night where disposal from both sides was very wayward, Broomhead looked a class above and was very clean with his ball use. Hopefully he can stay injury free and finally cement his spot in the side.
Brodie Grundy – Grundy was enormous last week against the Tigers, with 45 hitouts, 23 disposals and a goal. After a solid pre-season, Grundy looks set to establish himself amongst the top handful of ruckmen in the game. His ruck work is constantly improving, and his work-rate around the ground is first class. He definitely enjoys playing as the sole ruckman in the side, and he shapes as a crucial player this week.
Will Hoskin-Elliott – Collingwood's new recruit has been fantastic in his opening two games, and he single-handedly got the Magpies back into the game last week with three goals in the last quarter. He can play a variety of roles, but looks most suited to a half forward or wing role. He had 21 disposals and 12 marks, and seems to get himself into really good positions. He has terrific pace, and is also fantastic above his head. This could be his break-out year.
Focus on Sydney
It's a very different looking Sydney side at the moment, with as many as 10 players from last year's Grand Final team not in the side this week. But the Swans have already unearthed some really good debutants this year with players such as Oliver Florent, Will Hayward, Robbie Fox and Nick Newman all impressing.
In fact, the issue hasn't necessarily been the youth of Sydney, but more so for some of its star players. If the Swans are to beat the Pies this week, the senior players through the midfield need to continue to find the football. Up forward, Lance Franklin and Sam Reid have been dominant (they kicked a combined total of 10 goals between them against the Bulldogs last round), so if the midfield can give them more supply then it is hard to see this young Collingwood defence holding them all game.
Player Focus – Sydney
Sam Reid – Reid has had two really injury interrupted seasons, but looks to be back to his best this year. His six goals against the Bulldogs last week was a stark reminder to the competition how good he can be. In combination with 'Buddy' Franklin, the Swans have some of the best tall forwards in the game. Sam may find himself matched up against his brother Ben this week, which whould be a fantastic battle.
Zac Jones – Jones is available to play this week after escaping suspension following his bump on Travis Cloke last week. He is a player who looks set to really break out for the Swans in 2017. With a few positions open in the midfield, Jones has a real opportunity to make his mark, and he has looked really sharp in the opening two weeks with 25 and 20 disposals.
Oliver Florent – Florent was Sydney's first pick in the 2016 National Draft, and has quickly worked his way into the senior team. His speed was on show last week with a terrific run down tackle of Jason Johannisen, which he followed up with a terrific goal. The Swans are light for small forwards at the moment, as well as a bit of pace. Therefore, Florent becomes an important player for them as he adds a bit of flair to the side. Keep an eye on him this Friday night.
The Wrap Up
Both sides are far from full strength, but have enough star power through the midfield to worry any side in the competition. Sydney's midfield has yet to fire, so if the likes of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery can click into gear this week then the Swans are going to be very hard to beat on their home deck, especially with Franklin and Reid in ominous form.
On the other hand, Collingwood's midfield has been in good form, but just hasn't had the efficiency going forward. If their forwards can kick accurately, and the midfield can move the ball better, then the Magpies are a huge chance this week against an undermanned Sydney outfit.
The pressure will go right onto the loser of this game. It's a really intriguing battle against two sides that are looking to get season 2017 back on track. I think we'll see a more attacking Collingwood side this Friday night, but I think the Swans will be feeling pretty confident after a solid effort against the Bulldogs last week. It should be a ripping game.
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