Preview Round 23: Collingwood v Melbourne

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 23 COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE Time & Place: Saturday August 26, 1:45pm EST MCG TV: Fox Footy 1:30pm EST Weather: Min 9 Max 14 Chance of rain 40%: 1-5mm Wind: SW 9kph Betting: Collingwood $2.35 Melbourne $1.60

There will be no easing up for the seventh-placed Demons in this final-round clash given a loss could put paid to their hopes of ending their 11-year finals drought. This looms as a danger game against the nothing-to-lose Magpies. Last week, the Demons just managed to hold off the bottom side, the Brisbane Lions, and the pesky Pies at the MCG might well prove a tougher proposition, considering they pushed flag contender Geelong to the limit last week despite missing eight players from their preferred 22. The Pies will welcome back star ruckman Brodie Grundy from suspension and his duel with Max Gawn shapes as a beauty. The Demons should stretch the Pies' depleted midfield and expose their lack of height in defence, particularly following Jesse Hogan's six-goal haul in his first game back from injury.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R12, 2017, Melbourne 15.14 (104) d Collingwood 15.10 (100) at the MCG
2. R12, 2016, Melbourne 16.8 (104) d Collingwood 8.10 (58) at the MCG
3. R4, 2016, Melbourne 16.6 (102) d Collingwood 9.13 (67) at the MCG
4. R18, 2015, Melbourne 13.13 (91) d Collingwood 7.12 (54) at the MCG
5. R12, 2014, Collingwood 8.13 (61) d Melbourne 3.10 (28) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. In their Queen's Birthday clash in round 12, the Magpies led by 28 points in the second term before the Demons piled on nine of the next 12 goals to triumph by four points. Jack Watts and Christian Petracca kicked three goals each.
2. Melbourne has won the past four clashes between the sides. The Demons haven't won five in a row against the Pies since 1988.
3. It will be a contest between the two highest-disposal teams in the competition. Melbourne has been first almost all season in averaging 406 a game, while the Magpies aren't far behind with 403.8.
4. The Magpies will finish the season as the No.1 uncontested possession side with an average of 260.6, while Melbourne is ranked fifth on 251.4.
5. Melbourne is one of the best contested possession teams, ranked second with an average of 154.1, well ahead of Collingwood, which is seventh with 144.5.
6. Melbourne co-captain Nathan Jones has reasserted himself in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. Since returning from injury in round 20, the midfielder has lifted his ranking from No.49 to a career-best No.31. He is second at Melbourne, behind Max Gawn (No.16).

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Jesse Hogan and Lynden Dunn.
On his return from a broken collarbone, Demons spearhead Hogan slotted six goals and looked sharp against the Brisbane Lions. His hopes of following up that effort with another pre-finals bag will depend on how well he handles former teammate Dunn, who has been a solid contributor with Collingwood and last week blanketed Harry Taylor.

PREDICTION: Melbourne by 19 points