| 2018 AFL Second Qualifying Final COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST Time & Place: Saturday September 8, 8:10pm EST Perth Stadium 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm EST Weather: Min 7 Max 20 Chance of rain 5%: < 1mm Wind: WSW 11kph Betting: Collingwood $2.35 West Coast $1.60 |
B: Brayden Maynard, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tyson Goldsack, Travis Varcoe
C: Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Phillips
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Jordan De Goey
F: Josh Thomas, Mason Cox, Jaidyn Stephenson
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Brayden Sier, James Aish, Chris Mayne, Levi Greenwood
Emg: Jarryd Blair, Callum Brown, Josh Daicos, Jack Madgen
IN: Tyson Goldsack, Jeremy Howe, Adam Treloar
OUT: Jack Madgen (omitted), Nathan Murphy (omitted), Adam Oxley (omitted)
 Historically, these two sides play thrilling finals matches, including two draws in 1990 and 2007. This match has all the makings of another classic battle. The Eagles will have the home ground advantage, and will benefit from a parochial home crowd, but the Magpies got their first look at the new Optus Stadium in round 23 against Fremantle, making it a good practice run in the lead-up to finals. At the beginning of the year, if you had said that Collingwood and West Coast would play off in a Qualifying Final, most experts would have dismissed you. This is definitely a battle between two sides that have surprised and impressed many during the 2018 home and away season, which culminated in top four finishes. Each side has had injury trouble along the way, but has been extremely resilient. Recent History The Eagles really announced their finals credentials when these sides last met in round 17 at the MCG. West Coast has always had a question mark over its ability to beat big teams on the MCG, so the victory by 35 points was a defining moment in the season. It broke a 23-year drought against Collingwood at the MCG, but the win was marred by the injury to Nic Naitanui. At the Selection Table The week off has been a godsend for both sides given there are some key players on the injury list who could now be available to play. The Eagles will be hoping Josh Kennedy will be available for what would be his first game back since round 18. Lewis Jetta is also likely to be available after overcoming a calf complaint. On the other hand, they will remain without Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff. The Magpies also have some big decisions to make. Jeremy Howe looks to have finally overcome his corked thigh after missing four games, and his return will be essential given the star quality of the West Coast forward line. Adam Treloar has also been back training and is pressing his claim for selection strongly. Whether he plays or not is still to be determined. Tyson Goldsack is also pressing his claims after two VFL matches, though he has not played an AFL game this year after rupturing his ACL in the JLT Community Series. Ben Reid and Darcy Moore will not available, either. It looms as an intriguing selection week, given so many are on the comeback trail from injury. Collingwood’s defence has been inexperienced, but has been getting the job done. Where will this game be won? Collingwood and West Coast have two very different styles of football. Collingwood is a high possession side, ranking number one in the AFL for disposals per game. In fact, the Pies are the only side that averages over 400 disposals a game. On the other hand, the Eagles ranked 16th in this area. Instead, the Eagles are very efficient with their ball use, and look to retain possession through short kicking. They kick the ball more than any side in the competition, and therefore rank first for marks per game. The Eagles have not lost a game this year when they have more than 90 marks, so for mine, the Magpies need to make the game frenetic and scrappy and take away the Eagles kicking game. West Coast is the lowest ranked side in ground ball, so keeping the ball moving and in congestion will be Collingwood’s best mode of victory. It is easier said than done though, as the Eagles defence is so well organized, led by Jeremy McGovern who had a field day against Collingwood when these sides last met. Once they take the intercept mark, they then control the football and keep it out of their opponent’s hands. West Coast will also know that it has a distinct advantage in its forward line, with Kennedy and Jack Darling looming as key figures in this game. If the Eagles provide their forwards enough supply, then the undermanned Collingwood defence will really have to fight to contain them. While Kennedy and Darling are dangers in the air, the likes of Willie Rioli, Jamie Cripps and Liam Ryan at ground level are worrying as well, and will take the game away from Collingwood if the supply is there. For mine, this says Magpies will need to take ascendency in the midfield. It makes the role of Brodie Grundy extra important. The Tag Both sides have employed taggers in the second half of this year, and I expect that trend to continue in the finals. Mark Hutchings did the job against Steele Sidebottom in round 17 and held him to a season low 18 disposals. I expect to see this match-up again. For Collingwood, Levi Greenwood has been given the big jobs in recent weeks. I expect him to get the all important job on Luke Shuey, who is a noted finals performer. Without Andrew Gaff, the Magpies will be keen to put the clamps on one of the Eagles’ prime movers. Focus on Collingwood The hearts of all Collingwood supporters were in their mouths in round 23 when Fremantle looked set to cause a big upset. The loss would have relegated Collingwood outside the top four with no double chance. It was an important and defining victory for the Magpies. It’s the sign of a good team that finds a way to win, even when it’s not at its best. There is no doubt that Collingwood will have learnt a lot from its loss against West Coast earlier in the year. The Eagles were able to take 10 intercept marks in defence, which is a very high number. Admittingly, Mason Cox did not play in this game, so his presence is going to make a huge difference. Player Focus Brodie Grundy – Grundy has had a big fortnight, firstly winning the Herald Sun Player of the Year Award, and then making his first All-Australian side. He could potentially be the most important player come Saturday. Without Nic Naitanui, the Eagles have relied on Scott Lycett in the ruck. If Grundy has another big game, and Collingwood’s midfield gets on top as a result, then the Eagles may struggle to contain the Magpies’ running power. Brody Mihocek – When the game was up for grabs against Fremantle, it was Mihocek who responded with three crucial goals. In only 12 games in his debut season, Mihocek has kicked 23 goals to become one of the key members of Collingwood’s forward line. He’ll have a mammoth task this week to try and counter the influence of Jeremy McGovern. If McGovern dominates the way his did earlier in the season when these sides last met, it’ll be a huge ask for the Magpies to get on top in other areas. Focus on West Coast In round 17, the Eagles welcomed back Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy after injury layoffs. It’s a case of de ja vu considering Josh Kennedy is set to return from an injury layoff just in time to face the Magpies. The Magpies could welcome back Jeremy Howe, but the make up of the backline is still to be determined. Kennedy has had an injury-interrupted year, but he’ll have a fortnight to recover if the Eagles win this game. For mine, it’s clearly worth playing him, especially considering how the Eagles’ forwards dominated the Magpies in round 17. Player Focus Elliott Yeo – In my opinion, Yeo was really unlucky not to make the All-Australian team this year. He can play pretty much any spot on the field, but has been really good as a running midfielder who can also square off against big bodied opponents. Yeo is a match-winner, averaging 25 disposals a game. He also has a knack of kicking important goals, and he has a nice long kick as well. Jack Redden – Redden has somewhat slipped under the radar this year, but has put together his best season as an Eagle. Also averaging 25 disposals a game, Redden is the in-and-under player the Eagles desperately needed upon the retirements of Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis. Expect him to go head to head against the in-form Taylor Adams this week. The Wrap-Up There is no tougher task in football than to travel to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles in a final. The Eagles will also be buoyed by their round 17 victory against Collingwood at the MCG, and will believe that the home ground factor will provide an even greater advantage. The Magpies will therefore need to improve substantially on their round 17 efforts. The side will be quite different however, with the presence of Mason Cox making a big difference. The absence of Andrew Gaff is also a big factor considering he had 30 disposals in the last meeting. While Brodie Grundy could be the key to this game for the Magpies, the other barometer, in my mind, will be Jeremy McGovern for the Eagles. In recent weeks, teams have been using quicker opponents on McGovern to try and keep him accountable. How Collingwood manages McGovern will be vital. It will also be important that they don’t kick long inside 50 blindly, as West Coast will intercept and start counter-attack. In a final with high pressure, this is not as easy as it sounds, so Collingwood’s forwards need to work hard, and the midfield needs to be composed. |
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COLLINGWOOD V WEST COAST
Collingwood has regained three crucial players for Saturday night's qualifying final against West Coast at Optus Stadium.
Midfielders Adam Treloar and defenders Jeremy Howe and Tyson Goldsack
have been named after long stints on the sidelines due to injuries.
Jack Madgen (omitted), Nathan Murphy (omitted) and Adam Oxley (omitted) are the unlucky players to make way.
Madgen is the only one of the three to be included among the emergencies.
The other emergencies are Jarryd Blair, Callum Brown and Josh Daicos.
Treloar returns for his first game since suffering a serious
hamstring injury against Carlton in late June, while Howe is back after
missing four games due to a nasty corked thigh.
Goldsack is the shock inclusion.
He returns to the AFL team just six months after suffering a serious
knee injury in the Pies' final JLT Community Series match against the
Western Bulldogs in Moe.
The 31-year-old completed a remarkable comeback when he lined up in
the VFL two weeks ago, then had a quiet outing second-up in
Collingwood's VFL elimination final loss to Essendon last weekend.
Goldsack has been named at centre half-back and will likely spend
time minding star Eagles forward Josh Kennedy or his sidekick Jack
Darling.
Howe is also expected to line up on Darling and Kennedy at various times in the match.
Collingwood: 3 West Coast: 2
Not many experts predicted these teams to be top-four bound, but West Coast and Collingwood have overcome significant adversity to be only one win away from hosting a preliminary final. The resilient Eagles are playing a brand of football that stacks up at home or on the road, expect to regain spearhead Josh Kennedy (shin) and should be close to full-strength, apart from Nic Naitanui (knee) and Andrew Gaff (suspension). The Pies defied a crippling injury list to clinch third spot, earning Nathan Buckley plenty of plaudits. Reinforcements could be on the way if Adam Treloar (hamstring) and Jeremy Howe (thigh) are fit. The Pies will rely heavily on unheralded types and an improved defensive system to pull off their first interstate finals win since 2008.
The Eagles' No.2 big man was thrust into the main ruck role for a half against Brodie Grundy after Nic Naitanui went down last time the teams met and more than held his own. But Lycett's form has been down in recent weeks against Max Gawn and Stefan Martin, and West Coast needs him to lift in finals.
West Coast by 11 points
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| THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 6 First Qualifying Final, 7:20pm EST MCG Richmond v Hawthorn Odds Tigers $1.40 Hawks $3 Last time Round three MCG Richmond 102 d Hawthorn 89 |
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 7 First Elimination Final, 7:50pm EST MCG Melbourne v Geelong Odds Demons $1.75 Cats $2.10 Last time Round 18 Kardinia Geelong 100 d Melbourne 98 |
| SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 8 Second Elimination Final, 4:20pm EST SCG Sydney Swans v GWS Giants Odds Swans $1.70 Giants $2.15 Last time Round 22 Sydney Showground Sydney 80 d GWS 60 |
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 8 Second Qualifying Final, 8:10pm EST Perth Stadium West Coast Eagles v Collingwood Odds Eagles $1.60 Magpies $2.35 Last Time Round 17 MCG West Coast 102 d Collingwood 67 |
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