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The Magpies are fresh from their round 13 bye and will start the game as favourites. Collingwood entered the bye in good form having won its previous three games by an average of 55 points. Nonetheless, as Sydney and Geelong will attest to, having a bye is not always a good thing when a side has momentum. Port Adelaide caused one of the upsets of the season last round, defeating the red hot Sydney Swans by 18 points. The win put the Power back in the top eight and only one win behind the Magpies who sit in seventh place. Port Adelaide is clearly an improved side in 2013 but it needed a big scalp to really establish itself in the competition. The victory against the Swans will give the Power a lot of confidence leading into this week's game. Under new coach Ken Hinkley, Port Adelaide has become a very fit side which prides itself on running out games strongly. There is also a big focus on defence, with the Power conceding on average only 83 points a game. The Magpies are conceding 89. It will be interesting to see how Port Adelaide backs up from its huge win against Sydney last week. It was no doubt a bruising encounter played in difficult conditions. Collingwood will be fresh but will need to be mindful of arriving at the game with the right mindset and preparing itself for a confident Port Adelaide side which now believes it can mix it with the better sides in the competition. The weather forecast shows wet conditions again in Adelaide, which means contested footy and tackling will be central to victory. Collingwood needs to tame a hostile crowd early and also keep a high level of intensity for the whole match considering Port Adelaide can finish games strongly. Recent History The Magpies dominate recent history between these two sides, having won the previous six encounters, three of which were played at AAMI Stadium. The one and only meeting in 2012 was in round four and was played at Etihad Stadium. Collingwood won the game by 24 points. Harry O'Brien put a patchy start to the year behind him, polling the three Brownlow votes. He had 29 disposals playing loose in defence. Kane Cornes was Port Adelaide's best player with 37 disposals and polled the two votes, while Travis Cloke polled the one vote kicking four goals. Dane Swan's record against Port Adelaide is astonishing, averaging 39 disposals over his last five games against the Power. His form leading into the bye was very good, so expect yet another big game from the champion midfielder. At the Selection Table Starting with the Magpies, Nathan Buckley is finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel on the injury front. Luke Ball and Andrew Krakouer will be available for selection and would both be handy players in wet conditions. Krakouer was terrific at VFL level before the bye, picking up 25 possessions and 8 clearances, while Ball has recovered from a minor calf injury. Clinton Young was also impressive in the VFL in his first game for the year since injuring his hamstring in round one. He may require another week at VFL level before he is available. Lachlan Keeffe also made a successful return and Caolan Mooney showed good form. In further pleasing news, Dayne Beams is closing in on his return and Nathan Buckley said yesterday that the club is hoping that he will be able to play at VFL level in the next few weeks. He will be crucial player in the run home to the finals. Turning attention to Port Adelaide, and the Power will be sweating on the availability of key players Travis Boak and Jackson Trengove. Boak is a 50/50 chance to play after injuring his finger, but the Power will be desperate to regain their skipper. John Butcher and Paul Stewart were late withdrawals last round but should also be available for selection while Cameron Hitchcock may also be in line for selection after missing last week with an ankle injury. The Power may also consider Brent Renouf who has been impressing in the SANFL in the ruck, but Matthew Lobbe has been doing a fine job at AFL level in the ruck. Focus on Collingwood Despite inconsistent form all season, Collingwood is well placed with eight wins and four losses. With so many key players still to return to the side, the Magpies could be well equipped for an all out assault on finals. However, with such a low percentage, the Magpies need to keep winning and cannot afford losses to teams it should be beating. Port Adelaide is a tricky assignment given its form this season. Nathan Buckley's main concern will be getting his team to play four quality quarters. In the last few rounds, despite comfortable winning margins, the damage was done early in the game and the foot was taken off the pedal. Against a fit side like Port Adelaide, the Magpies need to put together a solid four quarter effort. That said, Buckley will be impressed with Collingwood's defence, having only conceded 155 points over the past three rounds. Although it has been against lower ranked sides, it has still been pleasing to see the defence look much more settled. Despite the improved defence, Collingwood still ranks second in the competition for uncontested possession which shows that offensively the Magpies are still winning a lot of the football. Heath Shaw – Shaw is having a very solid season, and his past fortnight in particular has been very good. He had 22 disposals against the Bulldogs but most impressive was his intercept marking. He took 11 marks for the game, nine of which were intercepts. His courage is unquestionable. He is benefiting from Paul Seedsman's form across half back, but what has impressed me most is the fact that he has been willing to play on dangerous small forwards in the absence of Alan Toovey whilst still winning a lot of the football. He may find himself on the dangerous Robbie Gray this weekend. Marley Williams – Continuing on the theme of defence, Williams deserves a fair bit of credit for his efforts over the last five rounds. In the absence of Toovey, Williams has been playing on the best opposition small forward and has been doing an almighty job. He gives 100 per cent and plays very close to his opponent. He will be very important going forward, and may find himself on the dangerous Chad Wingard this weekend. Dane Swan – As mentioned above, Swan has averaged 39 disposals against Port Adelaide in his last five encounters. After a disappointing match against Sydney in round nine where he only had 23 disposals, he has averaged 38 disposals in the last three matches. He should be a beneficiary of the bye and will also enjoy having Luke Ball back in the side. Kyle Martin – The Magpies' coaching staff was very excited about the prospects of mature aged recruit Kyle Martin after dominant performances in the VFL. He has not disappointed since his debut and has average 18 disposals in his first three games. He has also kicked on average two goals a game and has shown a lot of poise in front of goal. Buckley is using him as a high half forward where his tackling ability and clean foot skills have been a feature. Martin faces a tough task to hold his spot given a number of senior players are still to return to the side, but if he keeps kicking goals he will be very hard to displace. Focus on Port Adelaide Port Adelaide proved itself to be a strong wet weather side last round and will be a very dangerous opponent. The Power needs to restrict Collingwood's uncontested football, which may be assisted by wet conditions. Importantly, it also needs to find a way to stop Travis Cloke and Dane Swan. Port Adelaide is a very young and talented team but has a good emerging spine and its depth has improved as well. Its defence has improved, as has its ball movement. The one area for concern for Port Adelaide is its contested marking as it ranks seventeenth in the league in this statistic. Again, the wet weather may even out the aerial contest. Chad Wingard – Wingard was the x-factor for Port Adelaide last week. In wet conditions, he was extremely clean, kicking three crucial goals to go with his 20 disposals. He has kicked 22 goals for the year (an average of nearly two a game) and is also averaging 22 disposals a game, making him one of Port Adelaide's most important players. This is a huge achievement for a second year player and he looks set to become one of the stars of the competition. He is the sort of player that doesn't need to win a lot of the ball to tear a game apart. Expect the Magpies to really lock down on Wingard as he was the difference last week. Hamish Hartlett – Hartlett is another of Port Adelaide's most important players, and will be especially so if Travis Boak has another week on the sidelines. He has settled in across half back and the midfield this year and has averaged 20 disposals. After a great start to the season, Hartlett is now the player most teams decide to tag as his influence can decide games. The tag slowed down Hartlett's output for a few rounds but his last month has been much better. Expect Buckley to use Brent Macaffer in his traditional half forward role against Hartlett this week to try and tag him out of the game and also try to expose him offensively. Kane Cornes – Many doubted Kane Cornes could deliver this level of football anymore, despite the fact that he was the best and fairest winner for the Power last year. His 2013 season to date has been amongst one of his best, averaging 28 disposals a game, and also playing a tagging role on may key players. He tagged the red hot Dan Hannebery last round and totally shut him down, allowing him only 13 disposals. It will be interesting to see whether Hinkley gives Cornes a tight tagging job on either Pendlebury or Swan, or gives him freedom to win the ball. I suspect he will be given a tight tagging job on Pendlebury. Matthew Lobbe – Many considered Lobbe the best afield last week against Sydney, with nine disposals, 37 hitouts and 11 tackles. Importantly he nullified the impact of the in-form Myke Pyke without the assistance of a backup ruckman. Lobbe is an improving ruckman, and will give Darren Jolly something to think about this week considering he is very athletic for his size and won't back down from the physical contest. Brad Ebert – Ebert's move to Port Adelaide has really energised his career and his game against Sydney last round was very important. He was able to win 26 disposals, but importantly was able to nullify the influence of key Sydney ball-winners. He may find himself head to head this week against Luke Ball or Dane Swan, which will be a huge test for Ebert. Nonetheless, he is forming a key part of Port Adelaide's developing midfield. The Wrap Up Despite the fact that this is definitely a danger game for Collingwood, I think the Magpies have the strength across the board to win this game comfortably. A lot will come down to the mindset the Magpies bring into the game and whether they can play four consistent quarters. It will also be interesting to see if the curse of the bye strikes again. Collingwood has a great record at AAMI Stadium and has won 12 of its previous 16 games interstate. Weather conditions may have a say, but either way I think the experience of the Collingwood midfield and the marking targets up forward should prove too much for Port Adelaide to handle. However, Port's victory against Sydney last round definitely shows that the Power is not a side to be taken lightly. Pies by 25 LAST TIME: Collingwood 14.13 (97) def Port Adelaide 10.13 (73), Round 4, 2012 at Etihad Stadium WALKING WOUNDED: Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley could have up to six more players available for selection this week with Jackson Trengove and Power captain Travis Boak among the group to face fitness tests before Saturday's clash with Collingwood. Trengove has not played since Round 5 as he has struggled with a foot injury, while Boak (finger) could return to the Power's line-up a week earlier than expected. Paul Stewart (back) and John Butcher (illness) were late withdrawals before Port Adelaide's impressive 18-point win over Sydney last week but should be back against the Magpies, while Cameron Hitchcock (ankle) and Sam Colquhoun (hamstring) may also be fit. For Collingwood, Travis Cloke (finger) and Luke Ball (calf) look likely to travel to South Australia. Cloke has not missed a game with his injury as the Magpies had the bye last week, while Ball has only missed one; Collingwood's Round 12 game against the Western Bulldogs. In other positive news on the injury front for Collingwood, Dayne Beams (quadriceps), who is yet to play this season, is expected to be back playing within two weeks. FORM: The Power made a big statement last week, overcoming reigning AFL premiers Sydney in the kind of match the Swans would typically win. At a soggy AAMI Stadium, Port Adelaide out-bustled and out-worked the Swans, coming from almost three goals down at quarter time to win 10.12 (72) to 8.6 (54). The Power have won both games since having a bye in Round 11 but Hinkley will be desperate to see them kick on against Collingwood and confirm last week's performance was not a one-off. Collingwood will return to action after last week's bye hoping the week off has given them the boost their form needs. While the Magpies won their last three games heading into the bye, those victories only came against Brisbane, Melbourne and the Bulldogs, three of the bottom five teams in the AFL. Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley will be wanting an improved performance with tricky matches against Carlton, Adelaide and Gold Coast coming up. WE THINK: If Port Adelaide can match their endeavour from last week, Hinkley's team could be well on the way to their first win over Collingwood since Round 4, 2007. The Power had 13 more contested possessions than Sydney last week, edging out the Swans in a stat the reigning premiers usually win. In Sydney's last six matches, they have triumphed when they have won the contested possessions apart from their 77-point trouncing of Adelaide in Round 11 when the Crows prevailed 161-160. The Swans are the leading team for contested possessions this season, while Port Adelaide and Collingwood are fairly even at 12th and 13th respectively. Hinkley will be urging his side to outmuscle the Magpies on Saturday afternoon. While Buckley will be reminding his team of their dominance over Port Adelaide in the past decade (nine wins from 12 games), Collingwood have yet to hit top form in 2013. With rain expected in Adelaide from Thursday until Saturday, AAMI Park could be heavy again and the Magpies might be ripe for a loss against a rejuvenated Power side. Port Adelaide by 15 points. |
This weekend at AAMI Stadium in Adelaide the Power host Collingwood, the seventh placed team, in a vital game that will greatly effect both teams ability to reach their goals this season, goals that have probably been re-evaluated since the season began. The Magpies have had a tough run with injuries so far this season but even they wouldn't use that as an excuse for their position on the ladder. The Pies did however improve their win loss ratio with three straight wins before their bye last weekend. Port, after winning their first 5 games of the season, and subsequently losing their next 5, shocked the competition with a win over the reigning premiers Sydney last weekend. That win has sky rocketed the relevance of this game and will ensure a big crowd both attends, and watches this vital game on Saturday evening. PREVIOUS FORM After losing 5 games in a row, the Power have bounced back in sensational style in their past two games with an expected easy win over GWS followed by one of the upsets of the season, an 18 point win over a real premiership contender, the Sydney Swans. The Power didn't start the game so well trailing by 17 points at quarter time but from then on they controlled the majority of play as they ran away with one of the best wins in the club's history. The Port midfield led the way with Ebert, Cornes, Broadbent and Wingard all in the best and Justin Westhoff continuing his remarkable 2013 form around the ground and up forward. Chad Wingard was the real star though gathering 20 possessions and booting 3 crucial goals. The win catapulted the Power into 8th spot and places them in a position where they can genuinely think about making the finals for the first time since 2007 when they made the Grand Final. The Magpies are coming off the bye this weekend, and before that they got their first mini winning streak of the season going by putting together three victories over the Lions, Demons and Bulldogs. While the standard of the opposition wasn't high it was more about getting some wins on the board and increasing the measly percentage they had (compared to teams around them). Neither of the three wins were overly impressive, and as stated by coach Nathan Buckley and the players post match(s), there was not one four quarter performance. The last win over the Bulldogs was a great example of this as the Pies jumped out to a massive lead early on, only to be pegged back in the second half and notch a rather demure 34 point win. The Pies will have to play better this weekend though as Port are yet another step up in class as their draw starts to get harder now. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW It's been a stuttering season for the Magpies and most of it has come down to them not being able to get their best 22 on the field at any one time. Of course Dayne Beams or Clinton Young haven't played a senior game yet and first choice players Alan Toovey and Alex Fasolo are out for the rest of the season. But within the gloom and doom that the media has tried to portray at Collingwood there has been plenty of shining lights, and one of them has been Paul Seedsman. Seedsman, in his third season has stepped up this year and is now a large part of the future of the club going forward. Still though the Magpies have their problems and the one stand out weakness all year has been the forward line, whether it be the forwards ability to effectively apply a vice like forward pressure, or the ability to assist consistent scorers Travis Cloke and Jamie Elliott. Coach Nathan Buckley may be waiting for the return of Lachlan Keeffe to senior action though as the 200cm + defender could become part of a rotation plan with Ben Reid up forward and down back. Andrew Krakouer is a big chance to return after some problems off field before the bye, while Alan Didak may also come into contention after being omitted for the Bulldogs game. One positive this week is the almost certain return of Luke Ball who missed the Dogs game and the tough midfielder should be on the plane to Adelaide and should take his place in Saturday's team. A few Pies players had minor surgery during the two week break with Scott Pendlebury getting his wisdom teeth taken out, while Travis Cloke had surgery on the finger(s) he injured earlier on in the season. Both are expected to take their place in the side this weekend. Collingwood need this win for so many reason, but more so for their confidence going forward because the draw only gets harder as it goes along. If the Magpies still have dreams about finishing top four they can not lose a game like this, they just can't afford to. The Magpies will need the likes of Ball and Krakouer back if they are to succeed where very few have so far in 2013, winning a game against Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS It's been a remarkable turnaround for Port Adelaide in 2013 as so far, after just 12 games they have already racked up more wins than last season. The change has come about largely thanks to new coach Ken Hinkley and his coaching group who have changed the way Port play, adding a defensive edge to the team that had been missing. Port had decent group of senior players when Hinkley arrived but he knew youth was going to be the approach going forward and that faith in the club's youngsters has Port sitting in the top 8 with 10 games remaining. Port's youngsters have delivered with the likes of Wines, Wingard, Neade, Hombsch, Jonas, O'Shea and Pittard all contributing to the rise up the ladder. Port still rely on the return to form of some of their experienced players though and none has returned to better form that Kane Cornes, who in his 14th AFL season may arguably be playing his best football. Port have talent on every line and it's no shock to see where they are when you look at players they do have. The Power midfield is probably their strength even if the stats don't completely back this up. Port's central brigade only ranks 11th for clearances but it does seem to be more effective than that, or at least it has been in the 7 victories that Port have had so far this season. The midfield is led by club stalwarts Kane Cornes and Dominic Cassisi along with ex Eagle Brad Ebert who has been a great recruit for the club. This season though the addition of Chad Wingard and Oliver Wines has really given this area a boost and will ensure the Power are able to be competitive against a Collingwood midfield that is still missing Beams and Dale Thomas. The ruck isn't as strong as an region for the Power though with the club swapping between Matthew Lobbe and Jarrad Redden throughout the season and it now seems that Lobbe is now the number one choice. Port Adelaide only rank 13th for average hitouts but their opponents this week are struggling even more, currently sitting last in the hit outs category, which is a clear sign that Darren Jolly isn't playing anywhere near his best at the moment. Most AFL games these days are won or lost in the midfield and the battle between these two highly talented groups will go a long way to deciding this game. Port's forward line is dangerous and at the same time still slightly unsettled. Schulz, Westhoff and Monfries are the three main stays of this forward line but surely Port want to include John Butcher in this group going forward, and the young tall may well be recalled this weekend. There has been one great assistant to the scoring this year though with Chad Wingard, despite spending plenty of time in the midfield, sitting second on the club's goal kicking table with 22 goals. Wingard kicked an all important goal last week and if you ask any club in the AFL goal kicking midfielders are as valuable as any other playing stock. There's really no shock that the Magpies and Port find themselves side by side on the total goals list as scoring is usually a great indicator of where a team is on the ladder anyway. If there's one area Port may be able to exploit the Magpies it may be on the fast break going forward with the speed of Neade and Wingard and the goal accuracy of Monfries and Gray, if the Power can clear the ball out of the middle, or the Magpies forward line they will do some damage. Collingwood has improved their counter attack defense a little bit lately though with the inclusion of Ben Sinclair and Marley Williams to cover the loss of Alan Toovey. The Magpies defense is still strong in a traditional manner with Brown, Reid and Maxwell all able to restrict the influence of any calibre of tall forward in the competition. Port's backline had to change leading into 2013 as they lost Troy Chaplin to the Tigers during the trade period. The hope was that youngster Jackson Trengove would fill that absent key position defender spot but injuries have slowed him this season and Alipate Carlile has been left alone at times down back with very little tall assistance. Somehow though Ken Hinkley has created a defensive mindset amongst his team that has covered some of the weakness that the club has down back. Port currently have only conceded the 4th least amount of points, and while the Magpies don't sit too far back in 7th it's a remarkable achievement for a young and developing team to be so effective in restricting the opposition from scoring. That's not to say that Port don't have a defensive structure in place though, with Carlile well supported by a group of youngsters that include Pittard, Heath, Jonas, Broadbent and O'Shea, which shows what Hinkley has in mind going forward. How Port cope with Travis Cloke this week will be one of the big questions, as the leagues' best contested mark is as dangerous as any forward in the competition at the moment. This may not be where the match is won or lost but what happens inside the Magpies forward zone will have a large bearing on the match, that's for sure. The next three weeks will tell us more about just how good the "new" Port Adelaide are, with games against the Magpies, Bombers and Hawks following on from their win over Sydney. They passed the first test successfully last week and it will be interesting to see how they fare over the next few weeks. Hinkley will continue to build on his policy to develop the list through getting games into youngsters although he'll be hoping captain Travis Boak is right to go this week. Trengove is also an outside chance of returning but the likes of Butcher and Boak are the more likely inclusions. The Power will carry a lot of belief into this game and if their inspirational skipper does return this could be a tight battle throughout. TIP With decent weather predicted for Saturday afternoon and evening in Adelaide on Saturday we should be in for a high quality game between two sides who have plenty of talent and are exciting to watch when they are on. Collingwood need this win though, there's no other way of putting it, because a loss will damage any slight chance they have of finishing in the top four at the end of the home and away season. The return of Ball and Krakouer will add experience to a Pies side that seemed to struggle late in it's last few games which may be a sign that some of it's youngsters were really looking for the bye. Certain teams seem to relish the bye and come out fired up the week after, as Port did last week so it will be interesting to see how the week off affects the men in black and white. The Powers' midfield and defense will be relied upon to put pressure on the Pies ball carriers throughout the game. The Pies will be primed for this game though, and have a stunning record at this ground in recent times and I believe they will start the second half of the season in good fashion and record a tough win over an improving home side. PIES BY 19 POINTS. SUMMARY All of a sudden this looms as a serious game of football. The Power were ultra-impressive in their upset defeat of the Sydney Swans last weekend, securing eighth spot and raising a few eyebrows in the process. Just like the Swans, Collingwood will enter this one as favourites but with the weather expected to benefit the Power's contested, defensive style, another upset is brewing, along with the rain clouds. WHERE AND WHEN: AAMI Stadium, Saturday June 29, 4.10pm (ACST) LAST FIVE TIMES R4, 2012, Collingwood 14.13 (97) d Port Adelaide 10.13 (73) at Etihad Stadium R20, 2011, Collingwood 23.21 (159) d Port Adelaide 3.3 (21) at AAMI Stadium R1, 2011, Collingwood 24.11 (155) d Port Adelaide 12.8 (80) at Etihad Stadium R15, 2010, Collingwood 16.9 (105) d Port Adelaide 12.7 (79) at AAMI Stadium R10, 2009, Collingwood 17.12 (114) d Port Adelaide 11.10 (76) at the MCG THE SIX POINTS 1. Collingwood have won the last six battles between these two sides including a mammoth 138-point hiding of the Power in 2011. 2. The Magpies have loved their road trips over the last few years, winning 12 of their last 16 games outside of Victoria. 3. Power coach Ken Hinkley's focus on defence has been obvious in 2013; the Power are ranked fourth defensively conceding just 82 points a game in 2013 while Collingwood are ranked eighth with 89. 4. Both of these teams have been strong on the outside of contests in 2013. Port is ranked sixth in the League for uncontested possessions, but Collingwood is second. 5. The Magpies are also one of the strongest contested marking clubs in the AFL, ranked fifth. Without a Travis Cloke in the forward line, the Power have struggled to take marks – ranked 17th for contested grabs. 6. Heath Shaw is enjoying a sensational season, reflected by his rise in the Official AFL Player Ratings. Shaw is ranked 39th overall, the but is the second highest rated defender. |
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Round 14 Preview: Collingwood v Port Adelaide
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