Collingwood: An Analysis

REAL FOOTY - Jake Niall

A somewhat prominent Collingwood supporter who works in the media - and isn't Eddie McGuire - was asked this question on Saturday: If Scott Pendlebury was injured for a period next year, who would captain the Pies?
"Aaarrrrrrrrrrggghhh," said the Collingwood man, sounding like Bob Hawke in his political pomp. He added, "aaarrrrrrrrrrggghhh.
"That's your answer, I suppose."
This fellow knew enough about the Pies to recognise that Nick Maxwell and Luke Ball had retired, and that there wasn't another obvious candidate to lead the game's most visible football club. Eventually, after more contemplation, he suggested, "They'd probably have to give it to Travis Cloke."
That exchange certainly isn't a scientific study of the club's list, but it highlights the issue that Collingwood confronts, as it continues to shed significant senior players and replace them with kids. The Magpies lack leadership in a playing group that has become dangerously young and inexperienced.
By "dangerously" young, I mean that the Pies are slipping down the experience ladder, to the point that they seem certain to regularly field one of the youngest 22s in the competition in 2015. As it stands, they will have only one player, Dane Swan, who is older than 28. What was a renovation of the playing list is on the brink of becoming a three-quarter rebuild. Collingwood is potentially placing itself in the same demographic terrain as the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and even the expansion teams.
Assuming that Heritier Lumumba follows Heath Shaw, Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes and Sharrod Wellingham out the Westpac Centre door and they neither add nor subtract more seasoned players, the Pies will enter next season with only eight players who have played 100-plus games, plus the fragile Ben Reid on 99.
Sydney has 17 players with more than 100 games in the bank in 2014, Hawthorn and Geelong 13 each. Hawthorn's team that confirmed cessation of the Kennett Curse on Friday night contained 11 with more than 100 games. Eight of those 11 had played 200 games. The eight triple-figure players remaining for the Pies include Tyson Goldsack, Jarryd Blair and Clinton Young - none of whom is a guaranteed selection or could be considered "core" players.
This continued loss of experience, particularly in the midfield, has placed Dayne Beams in a strong bargaining position. An aggressive Brisbane is hovering with a chequebook, eyeing off a rare chance to land a high-calibre Queenslander. There is an argument that if Collingwood is to lose Beams, it would be better to make the trade now, when he is under contract and it can dictate terms. But the likely departure of the wingman formerly known as Harry O'Brien surely puts paid to any Beams trade this year.
If Beams went and was replaced by either an early pick or, say, James Aish, Collingwood truly would be in the throes of a total rebuild, and its probable premiership contention window would be pushed further back to the dusk of Cloke's and even Pendlebury's careers. Beams wasn't an entirely happy camper at the conclusion of the 2013 season, but if he isn't a Buckley acolyte, he has still performed exceptionally well under the current coach. The Pies have little choice but to back themselves to retain him. If this means sweetening his 2015 contract, they should do it.
Collingwood also should bring in some experience to support Pendlebury, who shapes as a lone ranger on the leadership front and is still learning how to lead a team that has moved very swiftly from contention to a team in which Lachlan Keeffe, a 40-gamer and a convert from soccer, is part of the leadership group, along with Young and Steele Sidebottom.
Leadership isn't easily purchased. It is hard enough to find a seasoned player from another club who can play - at reasonable cost - without taking leadership capacity into account. Mitch Robinson is a hard, capable footballer who should be picked up by a second club, but he won't be his next club's answer to Tom Harley. None of those uncontracted Greater Western Sydney kids would fill the leadership breach, either.
Should Lumumba find more palatable pastures, Collingwood will have lost 1000-plus games of experience in the post-season, if you count the retirements of seldom seen Quinten Lynch and Ben Hudson. The leadership deficit is such that the Pies could do worse than have someone of Brad Sewell's ilk running around for them next year. The few senior bodies they have acquired, such as Jesse White and Young, haven't delivered.
Collingwood's collapse from 8-3 at the season mid-point coincided with the injury to Maxwell, who had knitted an inexperienced backline together in the absence of Reid and Nathan Brown and played some career-best footy. Maxwell had a small fraction of Gary Ablett's talent, but his injury and exit was a less severe version of what happened to the Suns when Ablett's shoulder was ploughed into the turf by Brent Macaffer.
The incremental progress of the Suns and GWS demonstrates that it has never been harder for young teams to win than in these physically and mentally taxing times. There is a strong correlation between the ladder and the order of experience. The expansion clubs are acting as a kind of experiment measuring how long it takes to build a contending team from scratch.
On my reckoning, if you don't have an existing base of quality senior players, the process takes seven to eight years (Gold Coast should play finals next year, in year five). The new teams show that it doesn't matter how talented the kids - without experience, they don't win.
Collingwood is certainly well-placed in the department of youth. The Pies have a promising pair of young rucks in Jarrod Witts and Brodie Grundy. Tom Langdon came straight in and showed immense poise, Jamie Elliott has match-turning abilities, Tim Broomhead seems classy, while Taylor Adams and Marley Williams shape as tough, capable players. Jack Frost held down full-back when Brown was grounded. The only negative in the youth department has been the severe injuries to prized draftees Matthew Scharenberg and Nathan Freeman, the former's knee injury representing the nadir of Collingwood's season.
The Pies will enter 2015 and 2016 with a more talented group than they had this year. But, as a team that is losing games and experienced heads by the day, they need to find leaders, from within or without. Quickly.