Preview Round 23: Collingwood v Essendon

AFL

Round 23 Collingwood v Essendon Sunday, Sept 6 3:20pm MCG Fox Footy (504) 3:20pm Weather: Min 7 Max 15 Chance of rain 90%: 1-5mm Wind: NNW 24kph Betting: Collingwood $1.25 Essendon $3.90

This final-round clash between two of the so-called 'Big Four' clubs will represent the first time in recent memory that they will meet with very little on the line, apart from pride and signs of development. Neither side can make the finals, which is particularly frustrating where the Pies are concerned, and they will be determined to finish off the season in a manner that they hope to start their 2016 campaign. The Bombers have been competitive in the past fortnight in losses to Gold Coast and Richmond, but the young Pies' effort against Geelong last week showed they are a class above Essendon, and should perform accordingly here.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R4, 2015, Collingwood 9.15 (69) d Essendon 6.13 (49) at the MCG
2. R17, 2014, Essendon 16.7 (103) d Collingwood 5.9 (39) at the MCG
3. R6, 2014, Collingwood 12.11 (83) d Essendon 8.12 (60) at the MCG
4. R19, 2013, Collingwood 20.13 (133) d Essendon 7.12 (54) at the MCG
5. R5, 2013, Essendon 18.13 (121) d Collingwood 10.15 (75) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Collingwood has had the better of Essendon in recent seasons, winning three of their past four encounters and nine of 11 since 2010, including four by more than 60 points.
2. The Bombers are on track for their lowest-scoring season in 88 years. So far they have averaged 70 points a game. The last time they averaged 70 or under was in 1927, when they averaged just 67.
3. If the Bombers remain 15th they will equal their lowest finish in club history. They also finished 15th in 2006. Meanwhile, this is the first time Collingwood has missed finals in consecutive seasons since 2004-05.
4. The Pies have been one of the best ball-winning teams this year. They're ranked No.1 in contested-possessions, averaging 144.9 a game. In contrast, they're 11th in uncontested possessions.
5. Neither side has finished the home-and-away season on a winning note recently. Both sides have won only one final-round clash since 2009.
6. Magpie midfielder Jack Crisp's rise in his first season at Collingwood has been meteoric. In round 17 last year he was ranked 626th in the Official AFL Player Ratings and has since lifted himself to No.184.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Jordan De Goey. The Magpies deployed skipper Scott Pendlebury to a sweeping role last week against Geelong, giving their top 2014 draft pick the responsibility of playing as an inside midfielder, and he relished the opportunity, gathering a career-best 25 possessions (17 contested), 10 clearances and seven tackles. Regardless of whether the Pies employ the same tactic this week, De Goey, 19, will be expected to perform at a high level – while receiving more attention from the opposition.
PREDICTION: Collingwood by 29 points