Round 23
Collingwood v EssendonMCG Fox Footy (504) 3:20pm Weather: Min 6 Max 17 Chance of rain 80%: 1-5mm Wind: N 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.30 Essendon $3.50 |
When the Collingwood brains trust sits down post-season to analyse the 2015 season, they will undoubtedly compare this year to a 2014 campaign which followed a similar pattern. However, I think this season should be analysed individually as there are very different reasons why Collingwood will miss the finals this time around. In 2014, I thought injuries and a lack of depth were the main contributing factors. However in 2015, the Collingwood side significantly improved (which is evident by the much higher percentage), but just lacked composure at key moments of the season. After a month of heart-breaking losses between rounds 13-17, eventually the confidence was sapped, and slowly panic begun to creep in as the Magpies continued to slide down the ladder. Despite the fact that Collingwood had performed so admirably against the best sides in the competition, you could just sense the frustration growing from consecutive ‘honourable losses’.
The young Magpies will have learnt a lot from this season, and will continue to improve. The win against Geelong last week showed how talented this side is, and it took a complete release of the pressure to unlock this sort of performance. All five players who debuted for Collingwood this season played valuable roles, and this highlights the excitement which is building amongst the side for what lies ahead.
Essendon on the other hand will look at 2015 as a season to forget. Whilst I do not plan on delving into the WADA situation, there is no doubt the Bombers’ season fell off the rails at the same time that WADA announced its appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. It was finally the tipping point for a group of players which has had to deal with so much mentally and physically for so long. Injuries to key players compounded the problem, and eventually the growing pressure finally claimed the coach as well.
Whilst I believe a lot of Essendon’s woes in 2015 were mental, we have also seen a number of deficiencies exploited as well. The lack of a key ruckman, midfield pace and a properly balanced forward line will be areas the Bombers will need to address if this side is to bounce back in 2016. The draft penalties which Essendon has faced in the last two years means that there is also a lack of quality young depth to call upon. It has been such a rapid fall, considering this was a side in round two which beat the reigning premier Hawthorn and one many thought would be successful in 2015.
These ‘dead rubber’ games at the end of the season have a habit of turning into very entertaining spectacles, as both coaches release the shackles and allow the match to open up. Both these clubs have proud histories and will be keen to finish the season on a positive note. The Bombers will look at this as an opportunity to put a full stop on 2015 and look forward, whilst Collingwood will use this game as a chance to build confidence ahead of the pre-season and pump more game time into the young players.
Recent History
These sides last met in round four on ANZAC Day, where it was the Magpies who were eventually comfortable 20-point winners in a very low scoring affair. It was a breakout game for Paul Seedsman who won the ANZAC medal with 31 possessions and a lovely long goal. Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams led the way through the midfield with 30 and 29 disposals respectively. For the Bombers, Dyson Heppell was the standout with 33 disposals, whilst Brent Stanton was also very damaging with 30 disposals and 2 goals.
At the Selection Table
It will be an interesting week for both sides at the selection table considering both have VFL teams playing elimination finals. Whilst priority should always be to the AFL side, neither coach will want to deplete the VFL affiliate and deprive it of an opportunity to go deep into the finals.
At Collingwood, Nathan Buckley will need to make at least two forced changes this week with Dane Swan and Ben Sinclairboth sustaining injuries last week against Geelong. Alan Toovey is a logical replacement for Sinclair after he was rested last week while Adam Oxley was declared best on ground last week in the VFL and looks set to return. Travis Cloke looks unlikely to return from his hamstring complaint, which means Jesse White will most likely get another opportunity at AFL level. The usual suspects in Ben Kennedy, Sam Dwyer, Patrick Karnezis, Clinton Young, Paul Seedsman and Jarrod Witts also continue to impress at VFL level but may be left untouched as the VFL Magpies look to extend their finals campaign.
Essendon has two forced changes this week with Courtney Dempsey suspended for his tackle on Brett Deledio, while Paul Chapman played his final game last week. All focus will be on Dustin Fletcher as he attempts to prove his fitness so he can play a farewell match. If he is unable take the field, he will likely retire on 400 AFL games. Fletcher is far from 100 per cent fit, however the Bombers will give him every opportunity to pull on the jumper one last time. At VFL level, Kyle Langford has impressed, as has Ariel Steinberg and Jason Ashby.
Focus on Collingwood
There are a lot of areas for Collingwood to work on over the off-season, however there is a lot of improvement which should be highlighted. Collingwood is the number one contested football side in the competition, and is also highly rated in tackling statistics as well. In the first half of the year, Collingwood was also the best side at marking inside 50, and preventing opposition marks inside 50. These are two areas which dropped off in the second half of the year and should be highlighted as Nathan Buckley looks to improve further next year.
It was interesting last week to see Buckley restructure his midfield. Pendlebury played a defensive role and floated off the back of the contest, whilst Jordan De Goey, Adams and Jack Crisp took over the reins and performed strongly. Buckley will continue to mix things up this round as he continues to throw new experiences to his younger players.
Collingwood played with complete freedom last week and got back to playing the sort of football which had it placed in the top four leading into the bye. The tackling pressure was enormous, the ball movement slick, the defenders were willing to work for each other, and the forward line made the most of its opportunities and took a lot of marks inside 50. Following the terrible loss to Richmond the week prior, it was an indication to me of this team’s pride and heart.
Player Focus
Jack Crisp – Crisp played a career-high best game statistically last week. After spending the last few games playing a more outside role, the former Brisbane Lion was thrust back into the midfield where he picked up 31 disposals, seven tackles and nine inside 50’s. To think that Crisp was originally thought of as just the steak knives as part of the Dayne Beams deal shows how far he has come this year. This is highlighted by the fact he has jumped from 626th in the Official AFL player ratings to 184. If he maintains this form, his rise will only continue. He is one of the real success stories of 2015 for the Magpies.
Travis Varcoe – Varcoe is another recruit who has shone at his new home. Provided ex-Cat plays this week, he will be one of only four Magpies who have played every game this season. He has never been a huge accumulator of the ball, but has still averaged a respectable 17 disposals a game to go with 10 goals. Importantly though, his physical pressure has gone to a new level, and his tackling has been terrific. He has been played in a number of positions, whether it be as a forward, wingmen or attacking defender. Undoubtedly it has been a career-best season for Varcoe, and we all look forward to what he can produce in the years to come.
Darcy Moore – He remains unlucky not to have received a Rising Star nomination, but the good news for Moore is that he will remain eligible in 2016. Whilst we have all seen glimpses of brilliance as a forward (none more so than his five goal effort against Western Bulldogs), what has surprised me has been his ability as a ruckman. His athleticism makes him a real force in the centre bounces in particular, and once he builds his body up he will also be quite a strong stoppage ruckman as well. It adds a new dimension to the Collingwood side if Moore can become the forward/ruck that it has been screaming out for. What impresses me most about Moore is his enthusiasm. He cheers every goal, whether it be he or a team-mate that kicks it.
Focus on Essendon
It has been a completely different look Bombers in the second half of this season as the club has looked to blood as many new players as possible. It has resulted in some massive losses, but Essendon has been more competitive in recent weeks, and has challenged the Gold Coast and Richmond.
However, the biggest problem for Essendon all season has been scoring. It is averaging only 70 points a game, and just simply has run out of ideas. Too much reliance has been placed on young Joe Daniher to hold up the forward line, and whilst he has performed admirably, he just isn’t ready for this heavy burden yet. It has meant players like Jake Carlisle and Cale Hookerhave had to play as makeshift forwards, which has only depleted the backline. The absence of Jobe Watson at such a difficult time of the year has also hurt.
There have been some positives though. A few youngsters have emerged, such as Jayden Laverdewho many considered a real bargain selection at last year’s draft. Nick O’Brien has also been solid, whilst Shaun McKernan has shown a lot of heart.
Player Focus
Cale Hooker – One man who can hold his head up high has been Cale Hooker. At one point this year, Hooker was the favourite to be named the All-Australian centre half back. However, he has had to sacrifice his role to help fill the void up forward. At the other end of the ground his nature of a fierce competitor and ability to take a strong contested mark has been vital. He kicked three goals last week, which takes his season tally to 19. Preferably, the Bombers will love Hooker to slot back into defence, but until they can find other options he will likely continue to plug the hole up forward.
Shaun McKernan – After being delisted by Adelaide, McKernan was thrown a lifeline by Essendon as a rookie. It took a while for him to get his opportunity due to the fact he needed a spot to open up on the senior list first. When it finally did, he was thrown into the ruck against the monsters of the competition. At 196cm, he is very undersized for this role, but he has competed valiantly. He has used his athleticism to become an attacking option around the ground, which has seen him average 17 disposals a game. He is also averaging a respectable 22 hitouts. Whilst he has struggled to compete against the best ruckmen in the competition, he has shown real heart and has cemented a spot in this Essendon side.
Dyson Heppell – Heppell has had to lead the club in the absence of Jobe Watson, and he has done a fine job. Statistically, Heppell is well down on last year’s averages, and at times has looked a bit worn-out. He lacks pace, but he has a huge heart and is definitely a captain in waiting. He always plays well against Collingwood, but will likely get the Levi Greenwood tag (Greenwood has taken the scalps of Cotchin and Selwood in the last two weeks).
The Final Word
As we embark on the final round of the AFL home and away season, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those who have read my articles throughout the year, and also the Collingwood Football Club for providing me with the platform to share my thoughts with the Magpie Army.
This is the final game of the AFL Premiership Season. While it’s a dead-rubber, it also has the makings of quite an open and free-flowing affair, which could lead to some very entertaining footy. Supporters of both sides will be disappointed with how the season has turned out, but it is an opportunity to go to a game without nerves and just enjoy the afternoon. Despite last week’s game against Geelong counting for nothing, it was good to just to sit down, watch the next generation on display, and see my club play with pride. I would prefer to be playing finals of course, but it was a timely reminder of why we love this game and why we support our club. I’m looking forward to a similar afternoon this Sunday.
Also remember to support the respective VFL sides this week in the elimination finals. With the AFL sides finishing up, let’s hope that both Essendon and Collingwood can still have a presence at VFL level.
Whilst Essendon have been better over the last fortnight, Collingwood should be far too good, especially through the midfield.
Collingwood by 35 points.
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