Preview Round 19: Collingwood v West Coast Eagles

AFL

SUMMARY

Round 19 COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST EAGLES Time, Place, TV: Saturday July 30, 4:35pm MCG Fox Footy 4:30pm Weather: Min 8 Max 16 Chance of rain 70%: 1-5mm Wind: N 28kph Betting: Collingwood $2.35 West Coast Eagles $1.59

This is a danger game for West Coast, but one that must be conquered if it is to make the top four. The Eagles have won five in a row, but their past fortnight has been uninspiring, just holding on to beat Carlton at the MCG and coming from behind in the last quarter to pip Melbourne at home after losing the inside 50 count 37-66. If they needed any added incentive, it's this: the Eagles haven't beaten the Pies at the MCG since 1995 (when current Pies coach Nathan Buckley was in just his second season as a Magpie and Leigh Matthews was in his final year at the helm), losing their subsequent nine encounters. Collingwood is expected to continue to be a dangerous opponent on the run home.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R6, 2016, West Coast 18.16 (124) d Collingwood 9.8 (62) at Domain Stadium
2. R16, 2015, West Coast 11.21 (87) d Collingwood 7.14 (56) at Etihad Stadium
3. R20, 2014, West Coast 19.12 (126) d Collingwood 10.6 (66) at Domain Stadium
4. R10, 2014, Collingwood 17.7 (109) d West Coast 15.11 (101) at the MCG
5. R22, 2013, Collingwood 15.11 (101) d West Coast 5.9 (39) at the MCG
   

THE SIX POINTS

1. Heavily in Collingwood's favour is their 10-1 record against West Coast at the MCG. The Eagles only win took place early in 1995. 
2. The Eagles are the most accurate side in front of goal, converting 55.2 per cent of their scoring shots, while Collingwood is 10th at 50.6 per cent. 
3. The Eagles could gain a big advantage in the ruck, ranked first for hitouts with 48.1 a game, compared to the Magpies 33.2, ranked 16th. When it comes to centre clearances, the Eagles are eighth and Collingwood 14th. 
4. No team handballs less than West Coast, which averages 148.7 a game. Collingwood is ranked sixth at 174.1 a game. They are 10th and 11th for kicks, separated by just one kick (3445-3444).
5. When they met at Domain Stadium in round six, the Eagles led by just 10 points midway through the third quarter before piling on 9.7 to just 1.3 to win by 62 points. 
6. Collingwood's rising ruck star Brodie Grundy has leapt to a career high ranking of No.138 (the sixth-best Pie) in the Official AFL Player Ratings. He started the season ranked 257th (18th at Collingwood).

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …Chris Masten.
The Eagles midfielder's 12-touch effort in the wet against Melbourne was his worst return of the season, so he'll be desperate to get involved more against the Pies. The 27-year-old is one player the Eagles need to strike his best form if they are any chance of repeating their heroics of last season.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 19 points.