Preview Round 12: Collingwood v Melbourne

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 12 COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE Time & Place: Monday June 12, 3:20pm EST MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 3:00pm EST Weather: Min 7 Max 15 Chance of rain 30%: < 1mm Wind: WSW 7kph Betting: Collingwood $2.45 Melbourne $1.56

This is a season-defining clash for both sides with a position in the top-eight potentially up for grabs. With plenty on the line, the annual Queen's Birthday blockbuster shapes as the match of the round. Following its bye, Melbourne will be looking to continue the good form it displayed in Alice Springs against Gold Coast. The likely inclusion of Christian Salem, after serving his one-game suspension, will add a touch of class to the Demons' backline. Collingwood has resuscitated its season on the back of three-straight victories against Hawthorn, the Brisbane Lions and Fremantle. However, injuries to key personnel including Jamie Elliott (ankle), Daniel Wells (calf) and Tyson Goldsack (shoulder) are big blows. The Magpies' midfielders, in particular Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams, have been central figures in the club's revival. With Nathan Jones and Clayton Oliver primed, all three will need to produce their best footy to engineer a Collingwood win.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R12, 2016, Melbourne 16.8 (104) d Collingwood 8.10 (58) at the MCG
2. R4, 2016, Melbourne 16.6 (102) d Collingwood 9.13 (67) at the MCG
3. R18, 2015, Melbourne 13.13 (91) d Collingwood 7.12 (54) at the MCG
4. R10, 2015, Collingwood 17.8 (110) d Melbourne 13.7 (85) at the MCG
5. R12, 2014, Collingwood 8.13 (61) d Melbourne 3.10 (28) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. When the teams met on Queen's Birthday Monday in 2016, the Demons dominated after quarter-time. Collingwood led by 12 points at the first change, before Melbourne kicked 14 goals. Bernie Vince was best on ground with 42 disposals.
2. Both sides are strongly ranked for marks inside 50 this season, with Collingwood ranked equal-third (averaging 13.3 per game) just ahead of Melbourne who are ranked fifth (13).
3. Melbourne has now won the past three clashes between the sides, ending Collingwood's dominant run of five consecutive wins which included two wins by more than 80 points.
4. The Demons are one of the best contested possession teams this season, ranked second in the AFL (averaging 151.5 per game). Melbourne is well ahead of the Magpies, who are ranked eighth in the League, with an average of 146.1.
5. Collingwood is searching for four consecutive wins; something it hasn't achieved since rounds 8-11 in 2015. Melbourne will be aiming for consecutive wins for only the second time this season.
6. Magpies midfielder Adam Treloar has been the second-ranked player in the Schick AFL Player Ratings (23.4 points) from rounds eight to 11.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Darcy Moore.
With Jamie Elliott on the sidelines with an ankle injury, Moore will need to step up and lead Collingwood's forward line. After a slow start to the year, the son of champion Pie Peter has become more of a presence in recent weeks. You would have to think Moore would have to kick at least three goals for Collingwood to win.

PREDICTION: Melbourne by 15 points