Preview Round 17: Collingwood v Gold Coast Suns

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 17 COLLINGWOOD v GOLD COAST Time & Place: Saturday July 15, 4:35pm EST Metricon Stadium TV: Fox Footy 4:30pm EST Weather: Min 14 Max 23 Chance of rain 60%: 1-5mm Wind: NNW 21kph Betting: Collingwood $1.95 Gold Coast $1.85

Two inconsistent clubs, two coaches under pressure - how can you possibly predict what's going to happen here? Collingwood has won just five games this season but been competitive in most matches before falling right away against Essendon last weekend. The six-goal loss seemed to spell the end of their remote finals chances and brought a new wave of pressure on out-of-contract coach Nathan Buckley. Buckley's Gold Coast counterpart Rodney Eade is also feeling the heat after the Suns' poor showing against Sydney last weekend. Gold Coast is barely clinging to a mathematical chance of making the top eight and must deal with the Magpies to keep their dream flickering. With some experienced personnel expected to return, the Suns should have the midfield to match the Pies and the forwards to take advantage, but with these two teams, you just never know.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R22, 2016, Collingwood 16.22 (118) d Gold Coast 6.11 (47) at Etihad Stadium
2. R8, 2015, Collingwood 20.12 (132) d Gold Coast 9.9 (63) at Metricon Stadium
3. R16, 2014, Gold Coast 11.14 (80) d Collingwood 10.15 (75) at Metricon Stadium
4. R17, 2013, Gold Coast 13.7 (85) d Collingwood 11.12 (78) at Metricon Stadium
5. R10, 2012, Collingwood 23.11 (149) d Gold Coast 7.10 (52) at the MCG 

THE SIX POINTS

1. The contest was over by half-time when the teams met late in 2016 with the Magpies kicking 12 goals to one in the first half. Adam Treloar finished best on ground with 38 disposals, seven inside 50s and four clearances.
2. Gold Coast is the No.1 ranked centre clearance team in 2017 averaging 15.5 a game, a long way ahead of Collingwood ranked 11th at an average of 12.6.
3. The teams meet for the seventh time, with Collingwood holding a 4-2 advantage. Collingwood has won seven of its nine games at Metricon Stadium – formerly Carrara – including five wins against the then Brisbane Bears.
4. The Suns are the worst tackling team this season, averaging 63.3, almost 14 tackles a game behind the top ranked team. The Magpies are 10th at an average of 67.9.
5. This will be a contest between the two highest disposal teams this season. Both are averaging more than 400 a game with Collingwood ranked first and Gold Coast second.
6. Ever-so-quietly, Gold Coast midfielder Jarryd Lyons is putting together an excellent first season at his new club. His 27 disposals against the Swans helped him vault to No.33 overall in the Schick AFL Player Ratings – a career high.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Jarrod Witts.
The giant Suns ruckman faces his former club for the first time since departing Collingwood at the end of 2016. Gold Coast coach Rodney Eade said Witts deserved more recognition for his terrific season to date and he'll get the perfect chance to validate his great form up against red-hot Brodie Grundy.

PREDICTION: Gold Coast by 17 points