Preview Round 19: Collingwood v Adelaide

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 19 COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE Time & Place: Sunday July 30, 3:20pm EST MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Sports 3:00pm EST Weather: Min 9 Max 15 Chance of rain 30%: < 1mm Wind: NW 13kph Betting: Collingwood $3.15 Adelaide $1.36

The Magpies' season is still alive – in that it's still mathematically possible for them to make the finals – but it is expected to die a quick death against League leader Adelaide at the MCG on Sunday. After being two men down and coming from 24 points down in the last quarter against the Eagles to win by eight points, the Pies have won two in a row and require another five successive victories to press for September. They'll need the Crows – who sit a game-and-a-half clear atop the AFL ladder – to be well below their best in the visitors' third and final clash on the hallowed turf before the finals. Goalsneak Eddie Betts is sidelined for the first time as a Crow after having his appendix removed, but the Crows boast a massive arsenal and should have little trouble replacing the little champ.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R17, 2016, Adelaide 14.13 (97) d Collingwood 10.9 (69) at Adelaide Oval
2. R2, 2015, Adelaide 12.18 (90) d Collingwood 9.9 (63) at Etihad Stadium
3. R18, 2014, Adelaide 14.14 (98) d Collingwood 12.10 (82) at the MCG
4. R9, 2014, Adelaide 10.16 (76) d Collingwood 7.13 (55) at Adelaide Oval
5. R16, 2013, Collingwood 17.9 (111) d Adelaide 12.12 (84) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Adelaide has won the past four clashes between the clubs, a stretch that ended Collingwood's run of six consecutive wins from 2009-13. This is the Crows' longest winning streak against the Magpies.
2. Collingwood has won seven of its 10 clashes with Adelaide at the MCG, but the Crows won their most recent game at the venue in 2014.
3. There is a huge gulf between the teams in scoring. Adelaide averages a League-high 112 points a game, while Collingwood is ninth with 88.
4. Both teams are prolific when it comes to pumping the ball forward, with Adelaide ranked second in inside 50s (57.4) and Collingwood fourth (56.5). The difference is the Crows deliver it better and have better forwards.
5. The Magpies continue to be a high-possession team, ranked second in disposals with an average of 404.5 while the Crows are sixth with 396.6.
6. In round 10 last year, young Crows midfielder Matt Crouch was ranked No.333 in the Schick AFL Player Ratings, but he has climbed to a personal-high rating of No.62 – third at his club.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Daniel Wells.
It hasn't exactly been the ideal debut season in black and white for the former Kangaroo, who has played just eight games in an injury-plagued campaign. However, the classy veteran still has the chance to have an impact this season by producing a vintage performance against elite opposition to keep the Pies in the finals hunt. Significantly, the Pies have won six of eight games with Wells and just one of nine without him.

PREDICTION: Adelaide by 29 points