Pies 2018 Season Preview: Fox Sports

Fox Sports

NOTHING has changed at Collingwood. Which means that something has to change.Despite constant fan unrest and a continued trend of sliding down the ladder, things are much the same in 2018 as they were in 2017. That’s particularly notable following a quiet trade period.
Nathan Buckley and Eddie McGuire are still in charge. Daniel Wells and Jamie Elliott are still injured. And we still don’t know how this team is going to score.
In two consecutive seasons, the Magpies have finished 11th in points for, averaging 87 and then 88 points per game. This reflects their overall mediocrity but doesn’t paint the full picture.
Per Champion Data’s 2018 AFL Prospectus, Collingwood was above average at getting the ball forward, rating fifth for inside 50 differential. But once they get there, they butcher it, ranking dead last for scoring once inside 50 — scoring on 18 per cent of entries.
Why? Because they’re simply not good enough at ground level.
In the Prospectus it is explained why looseball gets are more important than hardball gets, going against common wisdom. Getting the ball under pressure is important, right? But you’re more likely to actually do something productive with a looseball get, therefore they correlate better with winning.
Collingwood is a great contested ball team — it’s why their midfield is constantly rated highly by Champion Data. But that is mostly coming from hardball gets — they rank third in hardball get differential, as compared to 15th in looseball gets. They’re even worse — 18th — in the forward 50.
Compare this to the triple premiership Hawthorn sides. Alastair Clarkson said he never cared about contested possession stats, but those Hawks were always excellent at looseball gets rather than hardball gets. They were best at the most important element of contested footy.
So how does Collingwood improve at ground level in the forward 50? Well, why not move a player who has kicked 10 goals in a Grand Final down there?
Steele Sidebottom won the Murray Bushrangers a TAC Cup flag by doing exactly that. And he just so happens to be the best looseball-get player at the club.
The Magpies can already win the contested footy in the midfield; it’s actually going something with it once they go forward. Sidebottom could solve the attacking aspect of their game.
As for the defensive? Well, there’s this certain Chris Mayne fellow who we hear was recruited for his pressure...

JOHNNO’S TAKE
Brad Johnson gives his view of Collingwood heading into the 2018 season.
“They’re the unknown. Without those small forwards in their side, I think they’re going to battle in the early part of the season.
“The JLT Community Series game versus the Bulldogs was a positive after quarter-time, they seemed to show some maturity in changing up their style mid-game - particularly with their entries inside forward 50.
“But is that enough to be confident they can make serious ground with the injuries they’ve got? I don’t think it is. Darcy Moore looked comfortable down back, Mason Cox has had a good summer.
“It still comes back to the ground-level players, and the ones in the team at the moment - are they good enough to consistently compete against the best?”

THE BURNING QUESTION
Is Daniel Wells going to make an impact this season?
We know how good Wells can be. We also know how infrequently he plays.
He played 10 games in his first season as a Magpie, and about 10 times in each of those games did a commentator say “that’s why they recruited him!”
He’s elite for scoreboard impact, providing brilliant delivery to the forward line, something this team desperately needs. But he has already been rubbed out for Round 1 with an Achilles issue.
It’s a shame, but expect his games played total to once again have a strong correlation to Collingwood’s games won total — seven of their nine wins in 2017 came with Wells in the side.

THE BLOWTORCH
Darcy Moore
The Magpies’ forward of the future has been moved into defence during the pre-season.
Darcy Moore has certainly shown flashes but averaged just over one goal a game last year as the focal point of the attack.
So in the JLT Community Series, Moore has played in the backline, and to reasonable effect too. Getting the best out of the father-son gun is a key goal for Nathan Buckley this year.

THE PASS MARK
Being in the mix for finals in the season’s final fortnight
As most Collingwood fans are aware, the club has fallen down the ladder in every season under Nathan Buckley (barring remaining 12th over 2015 and 2016).
Given the renewed faith in Buckley via a two-year contract extension, that trend simply must end. They don’t just need to rise up the ladder but realistically should be contending for the finals. Injuries are already impacting them but cannot be an excuse.