2019 AFLW Grand Final: Adelaide 63 Carlton 18

ADELAIDE   3.0.18   9.2.56   10.2.62   10.3.63
CARLTON      1.3.9   2.4.16     2.5.17     2.6.18

GOALS
Adelaide: Ponter 3, Phillips 2, Hatchard, Considine, Martin, Thompson, Jones
Carlton:    Prespakis, Davey

BEST 
Adelaide: Hatchard, Phillips, Jones, Randall, Allan, Marinoff, J Foley
Carlton:    Davey, Stevens, Prespakis, S Hosking, Downie

INJURIES
Adelaide: Scheer (knee), Phillips (knee)
Carlton:    Nil

REPORTS
Adelaide: Nil
Carlton:    Nil

OFFICIAL CROWD
53,034 at Adelaide Oval (AFLW record)

2019: LADDER ROUND 2

Pos Position     P Played     Pts Points     % Percentage     W Won     L Lost     

D Drawn     F Points For     A Points Against

2019 Round 2: Collingwood 110 Richmond 66

THE FACTS

2019 AFL Round 3 COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST Time & Place: Saturday April 6, 7:25pm EDT MCG TV: Fox Footy 7:20pm EDT Weather: Min 12 Max 21 Chance of rain 58%: 1mm Wind: NNW 7kph Betting: Collingwood $1.45 West Coast $2.62

COLLINGWOOD     3.2.20    7.3.45  12.4.76   17.8.110
RICHMOND             2.2.14    6.3.39    9.4.58    10.6.66

GOALS - Collingwood: De Goey 5, Mihocek 2, Cox 2, Stephenson 2, Thomas, Treloar, Phillips, Mayne, Pendlebury, Elliott

BEST - Collingwood: De Goey, Beams, Crisp, Treloar, Howe, Mayne, Pendlebury

INJURIES - Collingwood: Nil

REPORTS - Collingwood: Nil

OFFICIAL CROWD - 70,699 at the MCG

What The Pies Coach Said "We were all challenged after last week, the coaches and players alike, but the credit has to go to the players. They were dirty on the way that we went about last week, more than the result. The response was really strong from the top down. [The players] put some heat on themselves. [It was] a very good performance tonight, a lot closer to what we'd like the game to look like and the scoreboard looked after itself. Last week was something we need to work to remedy as we want to be a more consistent side." – Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley

Media Clippings Fox Footy Collingwood’s modus operandi was apparent from the start. The Magpies wanted to control the game, probably in response to the turnovers that cost them a win against Geelong in Round 1, and that manifested in a huge discrepancy in a plethora of statistics. At quarter time the Magpies had 33 more uncontested marks, dictating the tempo of the match. But another stat was of more concern for the Tigers. At the first change, Richmond had conceded six marks inside 50. When the two club’s met in last year’s Preliminary Final, Damien Hardwick’s men only allowed Collingwood to mark inside 50 nine times in four quarters. NEWS.com.au Jordan De Goey was the standout with five goals but it was a key mark that stole the show. Late in the second quarter, De Goey took a stunning mark and then kicked a goal around the corner to take the lead into the break. It was a brilliant mark to take Collingwood to an AFL record with 99 marks in the first half. Although the side fell short of the all-time record of 181 with 174 in the game, it was an incredible performance. “This is clearly a tactic that they have come into the game,” Channel 7 commentator Brian Taylor said. “The one thing we know Richmond’s great strengths is that they put pressure on. So if you run the footy out with handball, then they put you under enough pressure to get turnovers. Collingwood is not allowing them to do that at all because they are controlling the footy.” Herald Sun Collingwood’s total control of the Sherrin was spelled out by the uncontested marks. The Magpies led 42-9 at the first break, 88-31 at halftime, 120-53 at the final change while uncontested possessions finished up 338-185. They dictated the tempo, knew when to hold and when to be bold. It was like the Tigers were playing under the roof at Docklands — they had no outside game. AFL News With a Thursday night masterclass, Jordan De Goey sent a message to anybody planning to stop him this season: good luck. If last year was the Collingwood star's breakout season, then 2019, on early impressions, could see the brilliant Magpie step up to the true elite of the competition. It is only round two, but De Goey's intentions to become one of the game's best are patently clear. He was brilliant in the Pies' methodical and clinical 44-point win over Richmond at the MCG, booting five goals in a typically dynamic display. Playing deep in attack, the No.5 draft pick jumped high for marks, was clean at ground level, converted his shots and showed why clubs were throwing millions of dollars at him last year when he was out of contract.. Collingwood News A wealth of class in the midfield is proving extra beneficial to Collingwood, with the Pies comfortable leaving match-winner Jordan De Goey as a permanent forward. The 23-year-old was brilliant against Richmond on Thursday night, booting five goals in his side's 44-point win. After kicking 48 majors last year in his breakout campaign, De Goey shaped as a possible midfield option more often for the Pies this season. However, the off-season return of Dayne Beams has added to the Pies' already star-studded on-ball unit, including Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp and Taylor Adams when he returns from injury. The Age In the first term Collingwood had 85 uncontested possessions to Richmond’s 41, by half time it was 179 to 99. The Magpies chip and pass game was further reflected in the fact by half time they had 88 uncontested marks to Richmond’s 31. The Magpies held the ball and routinely switched play trying to stretch Richmond and find an opening to attack. Richmond was patient but Collingwood was poking holes through their defence. The Tigers' strategy was to wait for the counterattack, sweat on the long ball in that they could spoil and then punish Collingwood on the rebound. Collingwood though was more desperate around the round balls in putting pressure on.

2019 Round 2: The Team & Preview

2019 AFL Round 2 COLLINGWOOD v RICHMOND Time & Place: Thursday March 28, 7:20pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:00pm EDT Weather: Min 13 Max 26 Chance of rain 10%: <1mm Wind: N 16kph Betting: Collingwood $1.95 Richmond $1.85

B: Brayden Maynard 37, Jordan Roughead 23, Jeremy Howe 38

HB: Jack Crisp 25, Darcy Moore 30, Tom Langdon 8

C: Chris Mayne 16, Scott Pendlebury 10, Steele Sidebottom 22

HF: Josh Thomas 24, Mason Cox 46, Jaidyn Stephenson 1

F: Jamie Elliott 5, Brody Mihocek 41, Jordan De Goey 2

Foll: Brodie Grundy 4, Dayne Beams 11, Adam Treloar 7

I/C: Tom Phillips 21, Levi Greenwood 19, James Aish 14, Travis Varcoe 18

Emerg: Flynn Appleby 31, Callum Brown 17, Ben Crocker 39, Rupert Wills 33

IN: Greenwood
OUT: Brown

Collingwood News In: Levi Greenwood Collingwood has made one change to the team it fielded in the season opener, with Levi Greenwood named for the blockbuster clash against Richmond at the MCG on Thursday night. Greenwood has replaced Callum Brown in the Pies' side. The addition of the 30-year-old will add significant experience to the Pies' midfield group as they look to tackle the likes of Martin, Cotchin and Edwards. Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley is leaving behind prior encounters and focussing on the challenge in front of his 22 players. "That's last year," Buckley said on Tuesday when asked about the potential influence of the 2018 preliminary final result. "We were asked about the Grand Final all off-season, and you get to round one and you think you get the chance to jump back into 2019, and we'll get the questions about the prelim now, (and) we'll get the questions about the Grand Final next week (before hosting West Coast), but they're largely irrelevant. "Those games have been run and won, and we're well and truly into season 2019 now. "We said at this time last year that we'll let our footy do the talking and we need to do that.” Key defender Darcy Moore acknowledges the challenge of the 2017 Premiers will be difficult off a six-day break, however he has confidence in his teammates that’ll run out on the ‘G. "It’ll be tough to back up on Thursday night, but once the ball’s bounced the boys will be ready to go." The first bounce is set for 7.20pm, with over 75,000 fans expected to head to the ‘G for Thursday night football. Flynn Appleby, Callum Brown, Ben Crocker and Rupert Wills have been named as emergencies. Taylor Adams (finger), Will Hoskin-Elliott (knee), Ben Reid (thigh), and Daniel Wells (foot) were among those unavailable for selection.

AFL Preview Round 2 Collingwood v Richmond Last time they met: MCG, preliminary final, 2018: Richmond 8.10 (58) lost to Collingwood 15.7 (97) The Collingwood train left a shell-shocked Richmond in its wake, with Mason Cox dominating up forward in a second-term burst that resulted in a 53-point lead. Richmond rallied on the back of Jack Riewoldt's five goals, but it was too little, too late. What it means for Collingwood: The Magpies are under the pump after a sluggish seven-point loss to Geelong in round one. A big win over last year's minor premiers would be a strong statemen How Collingwood wins: Exploit Richmond's second ruckman. Collingwood has the best midfield in the competition and will greatly benefit from Brodie Grundy going head-to-head with second-gamer Noah Balta. The stat: Richmond star defender Alex Rance has missed two games since round nine, 2014. He is now expected to be sidelined for the year after tearing his right ACL last week. The match-up: Jordan De Goey v Dylan Grimes Grimes (ranked 210th overall in the Schick AFL Player Ratings) will be hurting after De Goey (90th) kicked four last time they met. With De Goey capable of turning a match on its head, Grimes is set for a big task once again. It's a big week for: Nick Vlastuin It will be the first time we will have a look at life at Richmond without defensive general Rance. David Astbury's role taking the No.1 forward (Mason Cox) isn't expected to change, but Vlastuin may be forced to take greater responsibility. Big call: After a quieter game by his lofty standards (23 disposals), expect Dayne Beams to dominate out of the middle in his second match back in the black and white and even kick two goals. Prediction: Magpies by seven points

2019: LADDER ROUND 1

Pos Position     P Played     Pts Points     % Percentage     W Won     L Lost     

D Drawn     F Points For     A Points Against

2019 Round 1: Geelong 72 Collingwood 65

THE FACTS

2019 AFL Round 2 COLLINGWOOD v RICHMOND Time & Place: Thursday March 28, 7:20pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:00pm EDT Weather: Min 11 Max 26 Chance of rain 50%: <1mm Wind: N 14kph Betting: Collingwood $1.89 Richmond $1.84

GEELONG               2.2.14    3.4.22   7.10.52   10.12.72
COLLINGWOOD     3.5.23    4.9.33   7.10.52     9.11.65

GOALS - Collingwood: Elliott 3, De Goey 2, Cox, Treloar, Beams, Brown

BEST - Collingwood: Treloar, Moore, Pendlebury, Phillips, Elliott, Sidebottom

INJURIES - Collingwood: Nil

REPORTS - Collingwood: Nil

OFFICIAL CROWD - 78,017 at the MCG

What The Pies Coach Said "A consistent theme across our pre-season has been too many turnovers in our back half. That was consistent again tonight. We had 32, most of them in the second half. There was actually a lot in the first quarter, but a lot in the second half as well. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. If we can't work the ball out of our back half as effectively as we'd like to, then we allow the opposition to build pressure. That's an issue from our pre-season and we've carried it into round one." – Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley

Media Clippings Fox Footy Six months after West Coast broke Collingwood’s heart in last year’s Grand Final, the Magpies returned to the same scene only to depart with the same result. It was ugly early, but just like they have many times before, it turned into a vintage game. This time around, Nathan Buckley had Dayne Beams back in his midfield — four years after he left for Brisbane — Darcy Moore back in his defence and Jamie Elliott back in his forward line. But it wasn’t enough to get 2019 off to the perfect start. NEWS.com.au Star Collingwood forward Jamie Elliott returned to the field for the first time since 2017 and played a blinder, kicking three goals, but it was Geelong’s big names who stood tall when it counted to give the Cats an amazing 10.12 (72) to 9.11 (65) round one victory. ... Despite Elliott’s efforts Collingwood routinely shot themselves in the foot with wasted chances in front of goal with Brodie Grundy and Scott Pendlebury missing easy set shots — and Adam Treloar missed a running shot on an open goal, kicking out on the full — he later admitted: “I kick those in my sleep.” Herald Sun Jamie Elliott made a perfect start to his first game since 2017 with two first-quarter goals for Collingwood. The Magpies small forward could not have asked for a better reintroduction onto the big stage, booting two goals in the opening term of Collingwood’s Round 1 fixture against Geelong. ... It was a case of deja vu in many ways for the Pies who controlled the match the last time that were at the MCG and yet lost. They clearly had most of the best players on the ground with Adam Treloar dominant with 34 possessions and Jamie Elliott the stand-out forward for the night in his comeback with three goals. AFL News Jamie Elliott, returning from an 18-month injury nightmare, was Collingwood's standout with three first-half goals, while Adam Treloar (34 disposals, one goal) was prolific. Yet the Pies had too few role players across the field, falling narrowly short. ... Profligacy remained the big issue for Nathan Buckley's side. Having kicked six successive behinds in the second quarter before Elliott's third eventually broke the drought, the Pies butchered more chances to give the Cats an entry back into the contest. Collingwood News Collingwood was made to pay for ‘shooting itself in the foot’ during a disappointing loss to Geelong on Friday night, with coach Nathan Buckley pinpointing costly connection issues as the major crease that his side will have to iron out on the training track this week. The Pies were sloppy by foot throughout the narrow seven-point defeat to the Cats at the MCG, particularly in their defensive side of the ground, with Buckley blaming a lack of cohesion for a series of crucial errors in the dying stages of the game.

2019 Round 1: The Team & Preview

AFL 2019 Round One Collingwood V Geelong Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm EDT Weather: Min 18 Max 29 Chance of rain 50%: 1-5mm Wind: SE 6kph Betting: Collingwood $1.57 Geelong $2.30

B: B. Maynard 37, J.Roughead 23, J. Crisp 25

HB: J. Howe 38, D.Moore 30, T. Langdon 8

C: C. Mayne 16, S. Pendlebury 10, S.Sidebottom 22

HF: J.Thomas 24, M.Cox 46, J.Stephenson 1

F: J.Elliott 5, B.Mihocek 41, J. De Goey 2

Foll: B.Grundy 4, D.Beams 11, A. Treloar 7

I/C: T. Phillips 21, C.Brown 17, J.Aish 14, T.Varcoe 18

Emerg: B. Crocker 39, T.Goldsack 6, B.Sier 36, L. Greenwood 19

New: D.Beams (Brisbane Lions), J.Roughead (Western Bulldogs)

Collingwood News Josh Thomas and Dayne Beams will line up together for the first time since 2014 Collingwood welcomes back Dayne Beams, while Jordan Roughead will make his debut in the black and white, in the Pies’ round one clash with Geelong at the MCG on Friday night. The Pies have named a line-up that features 17 members of last year's losing Grand Final side. Along with Beams and Roughead, Jamie Elliott has been named for his first AFL game since round 23, 2017, with Callum Brown and Darcy Moore also making their way back into the line-up. Nathan Buckley was excited by the inclusion of Elliott and Moore when he held his weekly press conference earlier in the week. "(Jamie is) a little bit older, a little bit wiser, a little bit more mature and understanding and appreciative of the opportunities that come along, so I think he's well placed mentally and emotionally to handle this next phase of his footy career, and physically he's in great shape," Buckley said. Hamstring issues restricted Moore to just seven games last year, but he has recently impressed by being a vital asset as the go-to player for kick-ins. The athletic defender recorded the most kick-ins of any player in the AFL across two JLT Community Series games. "He clearly would have been frustrated with the way last year went for him, and the disappointment of not being able to put his hand up, being couple of weeks shy (of availability) at the pointy end," Buckley said. "His attitude's been first-class. He's really committed to improving himself as a footballer, getting himself as fit as he possibly can be and ready to take that next step into the early rounds, which we know are some of the most intense that you'll face." Ben Crocker, Tyson Goldsack, Brayden Sier and Levi Greenwood have been named as emergencies. Taylor Adams (finger), Lynden Dunn (knee), Will Hoskin-Elliott (knee), Ben Reid (thigh), and Daniel Wells (foot) were unavailable for selection.

AFL Preview Round 1 Collingwood v Geelong Last time they met MCG, round eight, 2018: Collingwood 5.15 (45) lost to Geelong 9.12 (66) In a scrappy, low-scoring affair, the Cats kicked four of the opening five goals, restricting the Pies to just one goal by half-time, and set up a matchwinning break with three successive majors in the third term. The Pies were two short for much of the second half. What it means for Collingwood A win for the 2018 runner-up is crucial given it faces Richmond and reigning premier West Coast in the following fortnight. How Collingwood wins The Magpies' 'Swoop Squad' of small and medium-sized forwards, comprising the likes of Jordan De Goey, Jamie Elliott, Jaidyn Stephenson, Travis Varcoe and Josh Thomas, has the potential to pose enormous headaches for the Cats, who will be without important stoppers Zach Tuohy and Jed Bews. The stat Geelong has won 11 of its past 14 round one games, while Collingwood has won just two from seven under Nathan Buckley, and has been beaten in its past three season openers. The match-up Joel Selwood v Levi Greenwood. The Magpie desperado (ranked No. 380 in the Official AFL Player Ratings) appears set to renew his heated relationship with the Cats skipper (No. 53), against whom he has a good record. Selwood will be hellbent on getting one back on him. T.S. Elliott returns to the fray It’s a big week for Jamie Elliott. The Magpie livewire has missed two of the past three seasons through injury and will make his first AFL appearance in 19 months. Fit and firing after a strong pre-season, he won't simply ease himself back – he might well prove the matchwinner. Big call Pies defender Jack Crisp will upstage the two powerful midfields to be the most prolific ball winner afield. Prediction Magpies by 19 points

Fox Sports: Collingwood 2019 Season Preview

Fox Sports - Max Laughton

Fox Footy makes the case for Collingwood winning the 2019 AFL premiership. Source: FOX SPORTS

AFL 2019 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:50pm EDT Weather: Min 17 Max 27 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SSE 8kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Geelong $2.25

What would Collingwood winning the premiership look like?
Here’s what the start of a match report from September 28, 2019 could say...
Revenge truly is sweet.
The script has been flipped, with Collingwood defeating West Coast by four points to win an epic 2019 AFL Grand Final, a year after copping last-minute heartbreak.
This time it was Jordan de Goey playing the Dom Sheed role, with the young superstar kicking the Magpies ahead with just minutes to play. It’s a perfect ending to a season that saw him join the AFL’s elite, with a top three finish in the Brownlow Medal to go with it.
It was clear from the start of the season that Nathan Buckley’s side was going to be driven by last year’s pain. Dayne Beams slotted in perfectly to an already star-studded midfield, with Brodie Grundy becoming the tallest ever winner of the Norm Smith Medal.

Could Jordan de Goey be the key to the Magpies going one better in 2019? Photo by Michael Dodge/AFL Media/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

What have they done to improve from 2018?
Traded away quality draft picks, showing they’re trying to win now, not in the future.
Once it became clear Dayne Beams wanted to return home, Collingwood proved it was willing to pay up for their former star, sending away two first round picks.
While there are questions over who he replaces, given the Magpies already had the second-strongest midfield in the AFL per Champion Data, he actually does fill a real need.
None of the Pies’ four mids who are rated above average in the 2019 AFL Prospectus - Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom and Taylor Adams - are real goalkickers. Treloar and Sidebottom kicked 12 each in 2018, while Pendlebury and Adams each booted nine.
Beams kicked 18 in just 21 games; that saw him post the sixth-best average of any midfielder in the competition. The year prior, Beams kicked 20 goals in 19 matches.
When you’re in the window, you have to try and win a flag. The Pies have recognised that.

Dayne Beams is more of a goalkicker than the rest of the Pies’ star mids. Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

The academy system
Taken advantage of the academy system to pick up a potential gem.
It’s somewhat ironic, given Eddie McGuire’s historic protests, that the academy system helped Collingwood acquire a potential star more cheaply than usual.
Isaac Quaynor was already expected to be a high draft selection, but thanks to the Next Generation Academy system (and his dad hailing from Ghana), he fell into the Magpies’ zone, allowing them to match a bid and get the halfback for much less than he otherwise would have cost in draft capital.
Quaynor is a strong chance to face Geelong in Round 1, lining up in defence - for the first of potentially hundreds of times.

Daniel Wells played just four games in 2018, and none after the Queen’s Birthday clash. AAP Image/Julian Smith Source: AAP

Why can they win the flag?
They led the 2018 Grand Final with two minutes to play.
Sorry for the reminder, but it’s a sign the Pies are already pretty close.
It’s not like they can cop worse injury luck than they have in recent years.
Every club has to deal with injuries, but some have it worse than others.
Richmond lost the fourth-fewest games to injury from their best 22 in 2017; the Bulldogs got their stars back in time for the finals in 2016. This is a major element of luck that every year impacts on the flag race.
In a sense then Collingwood overachieved last year by getting as close as it did to a premiership.
The Magpies lost 218 games from players in their best 22 because of injuries in 2018, per Champion Data. Of the eight sides that lost the most games to injury last season, only they and GWS made the finals.
This doesn’t mean they’ll suddenly bounce back and be fully healthy in 2019; luck doesn’t quite work like that.
Also, on an individual player level, health is a ‘skill’ - you have it or you don’t, and you can get better at it. A player like Daniel Wells, who has played more than 10 games once in the last five seasons, is unlikely to suddenly play all year (as good as it would be for the Pies if he did).
But it is unlikely things will get worse in 2019.

Nathan Buckley: Everything appeared to click in 2018.

Nathan Buckley
Nathan Buckley clearly figured something out in 2018.
Remember how big a circus it was around whether Bucks would be re-signed in the latter stages of 2017?
Now compare that to him signing a new contract last week. You might have even missed it.
That's a sign of how far things have come for the former club champion, as in his seventh year as Magpies coach everything appeared to click.
We know the Pies love playing for Buckley, but it shone through in their game style in 2018.
It’s been frustrating watching the club in recent years because they clearly had the talent to be better than their results said they were; in 2018, it appeared the whole team invested more heavily in defending.
In 2017, the Magpies were the 13th-best in the AFL at allowing opposition sides to score from their defensive half. In 2018, they were second-best. Funnily enough, the Pies rose from 13th on the ladder to second (post-finals) in those years as well.
Buckley had major success moving the magnets around, too. Chris Mayne had a career resurgence on the wing. Darcy Moore, when fit, impressed as a defender. Will Hoskin-Elliott and Travis Varcoe jumped from spending 25.6 per cent and 36.4 per cent of their time forward in 2017, to 79.8 per cent and 84.3 per cent in 2018 respectively.
And, of course, Mason Cox emerged as a key forward who tore a preliminary final apart.
This all bodes well for Bucks in two ways.
One, the team looks much better and settled heading into this season than it did coming into 2018. Two, we have faith that if issues do arise during 2019, he and his coaching staff can solve them.

The Pies defended much better as a team in 2018. Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images Source: Getty Images

What could stop them from winning the flag?
The fixture is much tougher this year.
For the second straight season, a team took advantage of the AFL’s fixturing rules to make the Grand Final.
Richmond and now Collingwood went from 13th to the last game of the season; partially because they had the draw of the bottom six side they were the year prior.
In contrast, as a top four side in 2018, the Magpies now face what has been judged as footy’s toughest fixture.
Compare their 2018 double-ups to 2019.
Last year: Brisbane (15th in 2018), Carlton (18th), Essendon (11th), Fremantle (14th) and Richmond (1st in H&A).
This year: Richmond (1st), West Coast (2nd), Melbourne (5th), Essendon (11th) and the Western Bulldogs (13th).
That’s six games against last year’s preliminary finalists, compared to just four games against last year’s bottom four.
The Pies also have an AFL-high eight six-day breaks; every other club, bar Essendon, has six or fewer.

The Plexiglas Principle

The Pies face West Coast twice in the 2019 home and away season. AAP Image/Julian Smith Source: AAP

Something called the Plexiglas Principle.
There’s a relatively simple concept that is often used in covering US sports, known as the Plexiglas Principle.
The idea is that when a player or team does something unusual, like make an enormous jump from year to year, it’s like bending Plexiglas; in the seasons afterwards, it’s likely it will bend back to a more normal shape. (This is an artsy way of talking about regression to the mean, basically.)
Our natural inclination is to assume a team on the rise will continue to rise, because humans love patterns. This isn’t always true; randomness means things don’t work that way.
Essentially, when a team jumps from 13th on the ladder one year to third the next, it means we shouldn’t necessarily expect them to stay there or rise. That is what Collingwood did between 2017 and 2018.
Yes, they improved because their players and tactics got better, but that doesn’t mean continued success is a sure thing.
Look at how close the margins were for the Pies on the ladder last year. They finished third by 0.3 per cent, and would’ve been fifth with one more loss.
And consider that Collingwood had one of the easiest fixtures in 2018, but face the hardest one in 2019. As shown above, they could easily lose one or two more games because their double-ups are different.
Entire games turn on the bounce of a ball. It is not far fetched that randomness, combined with a tougher fixture, will see the Pies drop out of the top four - and thus face an elimination final, rather than being able to take advantage of the double chance. It wouldn’t take much.

2019 Draw
First Six

Herald Sun: Collingwood 2019 Season Preview

Herald Sun - Chris Cavanagh

Collingwood fell agonisingly short in the 2018 Grand Final and that type of defeat can send a club one of two ways. However, looking at the Magpies list and off-season capture of Dayne Beams, Chris Cavanagh believes there’s plenty to like about the black and white in 2019.

Nine Reasons For Collingwood Fans To Get Excited

1. Brilliant Beams

Dayne Beams back in black and white.

Brisbane didn’t want to let Dayne Beams head back to Collingwood, knowing he is a quality footballer with plenty left in the tank but in the end they didn’t get much choice. Beams wanted to return to Melbourne and the club where he started his career and got his wish in the end despite being contacted to the Lions for another two years. Beams will start next season aged 29 but is coming off a runner-up finish in Brisbane’s best-and-fairest after a campaign during which he averaged 29.1 disposals and kicked 18 goals from 21 games. The midfielder will prove a massive addition to an impressive Collingwood onball brigade which already boasts Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom.

2. Grand Final Heartbreak
Grand final heartbreak can go one of two ways. It can either crush you the following season or spur you on to bigger and better things. The Magpies will be hoping the latter eventuates in 2019. Collingwood was oh so close in the 2018 Grand Final, leading by 12 points early in the last quarter before eventually falling to West Coast by five points. Nathan Buckley’s men will see it as a missed opportunity and will no doubt be determined to make amends in 2019.

3. Big Mason

A dejected Mason Cox after the
2018 AFL Grand Final.

The American Pie, Mason Cox, officially announced himself during the 2018 Finals Series. While there were some promising signs earlier in the year, Cox showed an ability to tear a game apart in Collingwood’s preliminary final against Richmond. He had 15 disposals, took 11 marks and kicked three goals in that match and went on to play an impressive second half in the Grand Final against West Coast a week later, booting two goals. The 27-year-old finished the season with just 25 goals from 24 games but, given his finish, the Magpies will be expecting plenty more out of him in 2019 as his rise from college basketballer to AFL star continues.

AFL 2019 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:50pm EDT Weather: Min 17 Max 27 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SSE 8kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Geelong $2.25

4. Curse Over?
While Collingwood made do to make a Grand Final in the end regardless, an injury curse throughout 2018 did not help the club’s cause. The Magpies had one of the lengthiest injury lists in the league week-in, week-out including many key players. Tyson Goldsack (knee) and Daniel Wells (foot) each played just four games, Ben Reid (calf) played six games, Darcy Moore (hamstring) managed seven matches and Lynden Dunn (14 games) and Matthew Scharenberg (17 games) both missed the closing stages of the season after having knee reconstructions. The injuries particularly cut deep in the back half, something that should be strengthened next season if those players can stay fit.

5. Soaring Belief
While Grand Final day didn’t go as hoped, the Magpies showed in the 2018 preliminary final against Richmond that their best football is scintillating and just about unbeatable. Collingwood brought extreme pressure around the ball, dominated the midfield battle, were hard to score against and damaging up forward.
They won that match by 39 points, with Jordan De Goey kicking four goals and Mason Cox three.

Jordan De Goey celebrates a goal in the
preliminary final win over Richmond.

It ended the Tigers’ 22-game winning streak at the MCG and back-to-back premiership hopes, providing the Magpies with enormous belief that their structures stand up against the competition’s best when they are properly carried out.

6. Talented Trio
Collingwood’s list isn’t overly old. On average the club’s Grand Final team was 173 days younger than West Coast and three players featured in the big dance during their debut seasons. They were none other than Jaidyn Stephenson, Brayden Sier and Brody Mihocek, who all have significant upside left in them. Stephenson won the AFL Rising Star award and finished the 2018 season with 38 goals from 26 games, while Sier made an impact in the midfield in second half of the season and mature-age recruit Mihocek finished the year with 29 goals from 16 games. While all sizzling debut seasons, you suspect that is just the beginning for the talented trio.

7. Buckley At Best

Nathan Buckley with Adam Treloar and
Steele Sidebottom. Picture: David Caird

There is no doubt Nathan Buckley has grown significantly as a coach over the past two years. He now has seven seasons in the top job under his belt and this is his Magpies team. Last season it was clear he had a plan and had the players on board with it. Buckley won the AFL Coaches Association Coach of the Year award for the first time, voted by his peers, which highlighted his rise and that growth he has experienced should hold the side in good stead going forward.

8. Jordan De Goey
The 2018 season was a breakout year for Collingwood forward Jordan De Goey, but you sense he is only getting better. The 22-year-old kicked 48 goals from 21 games, after a previous career-best haul of 16 goals in 2016. He has X-factor most players can only dream of and ranks elite in his position for goals, marks inside 50m, clearances and kicks. Hawthorn great Dermott Brereton compared De Goey to Richmond superstar Dustin Martin last year and while the Magpie is not quite there yet, he is well on the way.

9. The Number: 2
It’s no surprise that Collingwood’s strength is its midfield, rating as the second-best midfield and ruck combination in the competition. It’s the evenness of the group that stands out, with not one elite midfielder but four in the above average category.

2019 Draw
First Six

Roar: Collingwood 2019 Season Preview

Roar - Cameron Rose

2019 Draw
First Six

AFL 2019 Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG Time & Place: Friday March 22, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:50pm EDT Weather: Min 17 Max 27 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SSE 8kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Geelong $2.25

Collingwood were a surprise packet of the 2018 season, rocketing from a 13th-placed finish in 2017 all the way to leading a grand final with five minutes to play.
Alas, Dom Sheed kicked what has already become one of the most famous goals in VFL/AFL history, and the Magpies were denied a 16th premiership.
From a future perspective, the best thing about Collingwood’s season was the improvement they showed throughout 2018. After a 4-4 start, they only lost five more matches for the year, with three of those coming to the premiers West Coast.
The preliminary final demolition of Richmond was a case in point, given they had lost to the Tigers twice by comfortable margins earlier in the home-and-away rounds.
The Pies were both fierce and formidable in 2018. Can they sustain and then build upon that momentum to go one step further this year?

Dayne Beams

Photo Michael Dodge/Getty Images

Collingwood best 22
B: T.Langdon L.Dunn B.Maynard
HB: J.Howe D.Moore J.Crisp
C: T.Phillips S.Pendlebury S.Sidebottom
HF: D.Beams B.Mihocek W.Hoskin-Elliott
F: J.De Goey M.Cox J.Elliott
Foll: B.Grundy T.Adams A.Treloar
Int: J.Thomas J.Stephenson C.Mayne T.Varcoe
Em: T.Goldsack D.Wells L.Greenwood

Midfield
Collingwood lost no-one of note in the off-season, but welcomed back Dayne Beams from Brisbane and gained Jordan Roughead from the Western Bulldogs.
The Pies had arguably the best midfield in the competition anyway, and the addition of Beams strengthens it even further. Daniel Wells only played three full matches in 2018, so would add even more if he can ever get fit.
But just adding a gun midfielder or two to an already stacked part of the ground doesn’t necessarily equate to an improved team – we saw that with Geelong last year adding Gary Ablett and Tim Kelly to the likes of Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Menegola but still tumbling down the ladder.
There is still only one footy to go around, so the addition of Beams isn’t just going to automatically add 30 disposals and a goal or two a game on what Collingwood did last year.
When thinking about who the star of the Magpie midfield is, names like Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Beams are hard to split. But the true answer is Brodie Grundy.
Grundy is the closest thing to Dean Cox we’ve seen since the peak years of the West Coast champion, a monster in the ruck but an enormous around the ground presence, particularly in the clinches, with his running game also unequaled by anyone over 200cm in the league.
In The Roar AFL Top 50 voting earlier this month, Sidebottom (23), Pendlebury (24), Beams (26) and Treloar (30) were all ranked around the same mark, highlighting how much class the Pies have.
Sidebottom runs all day and uses it well, time continues to stand still whenever Pendlebury has the ball, Beams is the longest kick, best mark and most natural goal-kicker of the four, while Treloar is the most explosive. What a mix.
Taylor Adams is the workhorse of the midfield, which frees up his classier teammates, and Tom Phillips assumes a completely outside role running both ways.
Young Brayden Sier has a bright future as an inside specialist, and would be a starting player in almost every other side but is probably only depth in this squad. James Aish played through the finals and looked to have finally made it, but is another that will likely get squeezed out. He did play as a back pocket in the JLT Series though, so there may be a change of role for him.

Jordan De Goey
Photo Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Jordan de Goey led the Collingwood goal-kicking with 48 last year, often deployed as the deepest forward to give opposition defenders a few nightmares. Alex Rance was toweled up by him in the preliminary final, which is a sign of de Goey’s standing in the game already.
The easy comparison is with Dustin Martin, because it’s true. Will he push more into the midfield after bursts there last year?
Jamie Elliott has a lot of fans among AFL watchers, all hoping he can stay fit and get back to his best. He’s the rare marking small forward, with great instincts, a big leap and sure hands. Jaiden Stephenson won the Rising Star from the forward pocket, with his electric pace causing problems for opponents.
Will Hoskin-Elliot has fulfilled his potential at Collingwood in a way he never could at GWS, but a cleaner bill of health has helped. Mason Cox continues to narrow the gap between his best games and his worst, as well as the length of time between those events.
Brody Mihocek played an effective role as a defensive tall forward once he came into the side, and hit the scoreboard regularly. He should hold his spot, but was still kept on the rookie list rather than being elevated. Travis Varcoe has played all over the ground in his career, but continues to provide value as a forward pocket and flanker.
The Pies forward-line is an eclectic mix that worked for them in 2018, but they will have to rediscover the same chemistry this season with Elliott back in the side.
Down back, Collingwood has plenty of options too.
Roughead has been brought into play fullback while Lynden Dunn recovers from a knee injury, and also provide cover for when Darcy Moore inevitably gets injured. Moore looked extremely sharp in the JLT Series, and we know the importance of an attacking tall defender that can be a strong marking option down there.
Tom Langdon had an outstanding finals series and has fully arrived at the top level. Jeremy Howe has been a beacon of consistency as an interceptor since arriving at Collingwood. Similar to other top sides like West Coast and Richmond, the Pies backline is well stocked in regards to winning the ball back from opposition forward attacks.

Taylor Adams
Photo Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Jack Crisp provides drive off halfback, Brayden Maynard has nailed down a spot as a tough back pocket, and there are the likes of Levi Greenwood and Tyson Goldsack as all-purpose options that can also play in other parts of the ground. Matt Scharenberg often commands a spot, but never gets a consistent run due to injury.

Draw
The Pies will want to be up and going early this year, given they have Geelong, Richmond and West Coast to open the season. They had a combined 1-6 record against those three sides in 2018.

They also have double up games against the Eagles, Tigers, Melbourne and Essendon, which shapes as difficult. You wouldn’t have to go far to find someone that has those teams as their top four.Collingwood has the best midfield in the comp, an outstanding multi-faceted forwardline, a more-than-solid defence, and unsurpassed depth. They play with ferocious intensity and high pressure, and they will be burning with hunger from getting so close to the holy grail last year.
The Pies are the team to beat when September comes around.

Prediction: second

AFLW 2019 Round 7: Collingwood 25 Brisbane 19

THE FACTS

S E A S O N O V E R

COLLINGWOOD   1.3.9   3.5.23   3.6.24     3.7.25
BRISBANE            1.1.7     1.1.7   2.4.16     2.7.19

GOALS - Collingwood: D'Arcy 2, Lambert

BEST - Collingwood: Brazill, Lambert, D'Arcy, Chiocci, Dargan

INJURIES - Collingwood: Lambert (concussion)

REPORTS - Collingwood: Nil

OFFICIAL CROWD - 2,030 at Victoria Park

What The Pies Coach Said “Brisbane had everything to play for in the second half and we still held on. I want to be here, there is no question about that. We are all about development this year and it’s an exciting place to be. We will go through the process at the end of the season. I am doing the job to the best of my ability and it’s develop these players. I can hold my head up high and put that on the table.” – Collingwood coach Wayne Siekman

Media Clippings The Age Collingwood coach Wayne Siekman is hopeful he will cling to his job for another year after the Pies finished their season on a high. For the second year running, the Magpies played the role of spoiler on the final day of the AFLW home and away season. Having denied Adelaide a grand final berth last year, the Pies led almost from the outset and hung on to deny the Brisbane Lions a preliminary final berth on Sunday. The Pies’ six-point win at Victoria Park also meant Collingwood avoided the ignominy of a winless season, and provided hope of better things to come next year, especially given gun youngster Chloe Molloy will return from injury. Herald Sun Collingwood dodged unwanted history and shaped finals destinies at Victoria Park after handing first-year side Geelong passage into the preliminary finals. Brisbane needed only to win its third game of the season against the winless Magpies to leapfrog the Cats in Conference B and take on Adelaide in next week’s finals. Instead, Collingwood snapped a six-match 2019 losing streak with a fierce early assault, then rearguard action as the Lions surged in the second half. AFL News Collingwood forward Sarah D'Arcy is far from the loudest member of the Magpie team, but she has been forced to lead from the front this year among an inexperienced forward line. By her own admission in the post-match press conference, it was one of her better AFLW games. Predominantly playing on Sharni Webb, a good match athletically, D'Arcy had 20 disposals, 11 marks and kicked two goals in a four-quarter performance. Collingwood News It wasn't a match for the ages, but the Magpies were determined to finish a poor season on a winning note. They withstood a second-half fightback from the Lions, scoring just two points in the final two terms but, thanks to some wasteful Brisbane shots on goal, had done enough. The Pies simply denied the Lions the ball in the first quarter, up 65 to 41 in disposals and 10 to three in clearances.

AFLW 2019 Round 7: The Team

AFLW 2019 Round 7 COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE LIONS Time & Place: Sunday 17th March, 2:05pm EDT Victoria Park TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 2:00pm EDT Weather: Min 15 Max 27 Chance of rain 5%: < 1mm Wind: SSW 11kph Betting: Collingwood $2.35 Lions $1.60

Backs: Jordyn Allen, Sophie Casey, Ruby Schleicher

Half-backs: Emma Grant, Stacey Livingstone, Ash Brazill

Centre: Brittany Bonnici

Half-forwards: Darcy Guttridge, Jordan Membrey, Maddie Shevlin

Forwards: Sarah Rowe, Sarah D’Arcy, Kristy Stratton

Rucks: Eliza Hynes, Stephanie Chiocci, Jaimee Lambert

Interchange: Sharni Layton, Katie Lynch, Erica Fowler, Sarah Dargan, Georgia Gourlay, Lauren Butler, Mikala Cann

In: Butler, Cann, Fowler
Out:  Ross

Roar By the time Collingwood takes to Victoria Park for their final round clash against the Brisbane Lions, they will know whether they are still a chance of avoiding the overall wooden spoon. They would have to pray that the GWS Giants are beaten by the Geelong Cats on Friday night, and a win for the Pies would see them overtake the Giants on percentage. Regardless, Wayne Siekman’s side will be playing for pride after what has been a disappointing season, failing to win any of their six matches and going down to North Melbourne by 22 points in the Marvel Stadium double-header last Saturday night. On the other hand, the Brisbane Lions have everything to play for in what will be their second consecutive match in Melbourne, after losing to Carlton by 16 points at Ikon Park last Sunday. They must first rely on the Giants beating Geelong, and then beat the Pies by enough to overtake Carlton on percentage, and then ensure the Blues are beaten by the Western Bulldogs in the latter match. Otherwise, if the Cats win, the Lions must beat the Pies by a huge margin and ensure the Blues are beaten heavily by the Bulldogs to qualify. Any other result and the Lions will miss out altogether, so Craig Starcevich’s side will want to be switched on from the get-go. Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 18 points.

AFLW 2019 Round 6: North Melbourne 53 Collingwood 31

THE FACTS

AFLW 2019 Round 7 COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE LIONS Time & Place: Sunday 17th March, 2:05pm EDT Victoria Park TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 2:05pm EDT Weather: Min 16 Max 29 Chance of rain 60%: 1-5mm Wind: E 10kph Betting: Collingwood TBC Lions TBC

NORTH MELBOURNE  2.2.14   4.6.30   7.8.50   7.11.53
COLLINGWOOD           2.0.12   3.0.18   3.1.19     5.1.31

GOALS - Collingwood: Guttridge 2, Grant, Rowe, Chiocchi

BEST - Collingwood: Bonnici, Lambert, Brazill, Rowe, Livingstone, Guttridge

INJURIES - Collingwood: Ross (ankle)

REPORTS - Collingwood: Nil

OFFICIAL CROWD - 10,612 at Docklands

What The Pies Coach Said "There was no expectation on us as a team (before the season). It was about improvement and development and that was my job as the senior coach of this side … we're improving week by week and that's all I can ask for. It sets us up going into next season with a young group that's improving week by week individually and as a team that, who knows, where it can go to? But that's where we're building and I'm excited about that." – Collingwood coach Wayne Siekman

Media Clippings The Age It appeared as though North Melbourne were going to run away with the game when they kicked the first two goals of the game but the Magpies did not yield. They fought back to kick the next two goals and it was an effort that represented the young Magpies' spirit during the game. Not only were the usual contributors in Ashleigh Brazill, Jaimee Lambert and Brittany Bonnici solid but the skills of youngsters Sarah Rowe, Darcy Guttridge and Jordyn Allen were outstanding whenever they won the ball. Although winless the Magpies hung in the game for three quarters against one of the premiership favourites. Herald Sun ... Collingwood’s fortunes went from bad to worse, with a late run converting what could have been a devastating loss to a 22-point defeat at the hands of the competition’s favourites. Both teams warmed up in their Marvel gear and the Pies came out like superheroes, but were eventually brought undone by the villainous Roos who — despite having some trouble early — simply punished the winless Pies at the contest. AFL News NORTH Melbourne has kept alive its dream of capturing the AFL Women's premiership in its debut season with a comprehensive victory over winless Collingwood. ... North poured more misery on the Magpies, who lost stars Jess Duffin, Emma King, Jasmine Garner and Mo Hope to the new franchise in a devastating off-season blow. Collingwood News The Roos should have ended the game as a contest earlier than it did, but wayward goalkicking ensured Collingwood started the second half only 12 points down despite seven fewer scoring shots. However, any hope of a quick Magpie start in the third quarter was dashed when the prolific Jenna Bruton (19 disposals, six clearances) won another centre clearance to set up an immediate North Melbourne goal. ... The terrier-like Brittany Bonnici was Collingwood's best, winning a game-high 21 possessions and laying 10 tackles while blunting League medallist Emma Kearney's influence in the process.