SportsMatt
Round 21
COLLINGWOOD
v
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Time, Place, TV:
Friday August 12, 7:50pm
Etihad Stadium
7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm
Weather:
Min 8 Max 15
Chance of rain 60%: <1mm
Wind: N 28kph
Betting:
Collingwood $3.05
Western Bulldogs $1.38 |
As the Collingwood Football Club meanders towards the end of yet
another disappointing season it should be no shock that their form is
still fluctuating. Last week against Richmond, a club that has become a
modern day target of parody and ridicule, the Magpies themselves became
the joke when they gave up a win in very easy fashion. It looked as if
the Pies would redeem themselves late in the final term as they hit the
front but they then rolled over and let the struggling Tigers record a
much needed win. It was just the most recent forgettable chapter in what
is becoming a familiar pattern year on year. Collingwood hasn't been a
good team for 4 seasons now, and while there is hope for the future this
season is a write off, once again.
There's still 3 games to be played though, and on Friday night the
Pies will travel a few kilometers down the road to be hosted by the
Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium. The Dogs are the buzz team of the
AFL right now, the media love them, and so apparently do all the neutral
fans. I say apparently because it seems as if there's a fallacy that
Dogs are everyone's second team. I'm not going to speak for anyone else
but they are far from that for me. These two have met once already this
season and in that game the Magpies took the game right up to the
favoured Dogs at the MCG before a stack of in game injuries cost the
Pies any chance of winning. The Bulldogs recorded a 21 point win in a
low scoring game as they continued to push for a top 4 spot. They are
still an outside chance of getting one of those key double chance finals
positions, but with a rather ironic (at least in Pies fans eyes) rash
of injuries of late these Dogs may have to settle for a home elimination
final.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Is it over yet? That's the question most Magpie fans are asking, and
unfortunately it's not. There's still these 3 now meaningless games to
play and the Pies players will have to find a way to self motivate
themselves for this game. The Dogs are a defensive beast and with the
current formation and production of an injury plagued Pies forward line
this could get ugly. There is hope however, the Bulldogs do have a long
injury list, maybe even longer and more talented than the Pies.
Collingwood does have some players to call upon though with the VFL side
yet again winning, this time their 10
th win in a row. It's
remarkable that with all the injuries and problems that the senior side
is having that the VFL Magpies are still winning. Tyson Goldsack was the
standout in the latest win, and if he isn't included in the seniors
this week something more sinister is going on there. Youngsters Tom
Phillips and Jordan De Goey were also great in the reserves win and will
come under heavy consideration to return to the seniors. There may be
good news on the injury front too with Darcy Moore pushing to return
after missing one week and captain Scott Pendlebury adamant that he
won't be left out despite an ankle injury sustained late against
Richmond.
So the Pies will field a side of sorts against the Dogs, but as we've
come to expect with this Magpies team it's all about what level of
effort they will bring to game day. If they bring their best, like they
did against the Dogs the first time, they may well pull of an upset win.
Anything less of an effort though and this could get ugly, well uglier
for the men in black and white.
WESTERN BULLDOGS PREVIEW
The Western Bulldogs were one of the most talked about teams coming
into season 2016 and they haven't disappointed. Even with a recent run
of extreme injuries they still sit in 7
th spot with a 13-6
win/loss record. The Dogs injury problems did seem like they were going
to derail their season, with back to back losses against Geelong and St
Kilda, but a fighting 14 point win over North Melbourne last week has
them back on track. With three very winnable games left (Pies, Bombers,
Dockers) these Bulldogs still think they can finish top 4.
The Western Bulldogs team defense is remarkable really. Coming into
this season they were thought of as a primarily attacking team who
basically outscored sides into submission. But this season it's been
completely different, with the Dogs conceding the third least amount of
total points, with only the Cats and Swans better than them. It starts
with the backline too, and Dale Morris is still leading this group after
all these years. He acts as not only a leader of the defense but also
as an on field coach, and allows the likes of Hamling, Roberts, Biggs,
Johannisen and Wood to provide adequate rebounding. This week the Dogs
backline will face off against one of the more listless forward lines
going around, and that's if Darcy Moore gets up. If he doesn't it's
almost certainly the worst forward line in the AFL at the moment.
Obviously the Pies forward line has been hit hard by injuries but the
replacements aren't standing up at all and the Bulldogs should dominate
in this area.
The Bulldogs midfield has some star names in it, yet it doesn't
exactly dominate teams on a weekly basis. The Dogs are in the middle of
the pack for contested possessions and clearances but if they can get
that ball to the outside they do remarkable damage to the opposition.
They do have a high rate of inside forward 50 entries showing just how
effective they are if you give them any time at all outside the packs.
The loss of Mitch Wallis obviously hurts their midfield brigade but with
Bontempelli and Liberatore leading the clearance count, they can match
it with a Pies midfield that is struggling. The one area the Dogs may
struggle is in the ruck this week, with Brodie Grundy starting to show
his potential and dominating games like a player beyond his limited age
and experience. This is where Collingwood need to dominate if they stand
any chance at all.
The Dogs forward line has been the topic that is usually brought up
when speaking about this team's future. The obvious target of debate is
Tom Boyd, who the Bulldogs pulled away from GWS in a mega trade (and a
mega contract). Boyd is only know starting to show what he is capable of
but it will still be a few years before a definitive result of this
trade will be known. They do struggle to put the score on the board
though, with the worst inside 50 conversion rate of the top 8 sides by a
long way. In fact they are the only top 8 side not ranked in the top
half of the league for total points scored this season. They rely on a
spread of goals to score with 4 scoring options standing out,
Bontempelli, Redpath, Dickson and Stringer. The good news of the
Bulldogs however is the Pies backline is as inconsistent as other areas
of their game, and at Etihad allowed North Melbourne to score 124 points
only a few weeks back.
After a strong win last week the Western Bulldogs will go into this
game knowing nothing but a win will keep them in top 4 contention.
Realistically they have to win out from here on and hope the sides above
them lose a few games. For this game against the Pies they are unlikely
to make too many changes with Matt Suckling the most likely inclusion
if he overcomes his most recent injury setback. That is a positive
though, as for the previous few weeks they've lost players due to
injuries in decent numbers, and quality. The Dogs should win this game
if they have any ambitions of doing damage in the finals.
TIP
Collingwood will go into this game as clear underdogs, and that's not
a shock given their recent form. The one advantage Collingwood may have
this week is they run into a team that has been hit bu injuries just as
hard as them. A lot may depend on final selection, with Pendlebury,
Moore, Smith and Suckling all needing to pass fitness tests to play. If
the Pies can get their captain and star young forward on the park they
just may be able to outscore this defensively minded Dogs outfit.
MAGPIES BY 1 POINT