Preview Round 10: Collingwood v West Coast

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Collingwood v West Coast Saturday May 24, 4.40pm MCG Fox Footy 4.40pm Weather: Min 14 Max 20 Chance of rain 40%: 1- 5mm Wind: S 17kph Betting: Collingwood $1.30 West Coast $3.50

Collingwood and West Coast, two of the biggest clubs in Australian sport go head to head this Saturday at the home of football, the MCG. Usually when these two meet there’s a lot on the line and this weekend is no different. West Coast started the season in fine form with 3 consecutive wins but things turned nasty as that was followed up by 4 losses in a row. They evened their ledger last weekend when they smashed the uncompetitive GWS Giants at Subiaco which left the Eagles still thinking they area a realistic finals chance after 8 games. Collingwood seemed to be travelling along beautifully with 4 wins in a row heading into their bye weekend, yet things went horribly wrong after the bye as they travelled to Adelaide for a game that seemed very winnable. From the start of the game though it was obvious that the home town Crows were treating this like their Grand Final, as they pressured the Magpies into errors of both judgement and skill that saw the Crows run away with a vital win. It was a loss that set the Magpies back as they fell to 8th on the ladder while a win would have placed them securely in the top 4.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
The whole Collingwood Football Club would have been disappointed with the result from the Adelaide game especially given the last month before the trip to South Australia. The Magpies were being talked about as a genuine premiership threat but with one loss most have now written them off as a threat to the top 4. Whether that’s fair or not will be decided later on in the season, but if Collingwood wants to challenge for a top four spot them should be winning games like this against the Eagles. There were some positives to come out of that loss though with Tom Langdon being the stand out once again. The first year half back kept the Magpies in the game almost single handedly in the third quarter in yet another stunning performance by someone so inexperienced. He showed up his team mates though, with most failing to match the youngsters’ output on the night. The midfield was the real problem for the Pies as they were smashed in clearances and contested possessions and that’s really where the game was lost. One other positive is that at least the 22 selected players go through the game injury free, which has been a rarity for this club in the past few seasons.
At the selection table this week the Pies do have some options with the VFL team having a massive 115 point win last Saturday. The players who stood out in that VFL win included Karnezis, Adams, Thomas, Brown and Fasolo and any of those 5 could be included in the seniors this weekend. Patrick Karnezis is an interesting one, he struggled to get a game in Brisbane and had Osteitis Pubis this pre season but he is the type of player the Magpies forward line could use. Adams and Thomas may also be considered to bolster the midfield while Brown and Fasolo really should be playing in the seniors if the club is serious about winning future games. Collingwood will go into this game as favourites, and rightfully so when you compare the teams the two have defeated so far in 2014, but the Eagles will see this as a chance to win a game away from home. The Eagles forward line is their strength and while the Magpies backline has held up well so far this season Lachlan Keeffe did struggle last week and could go out for Brown. No matter what the final selection is for this game Collingwood’s attitude and pressure on the opposition ball carrier will most likely decide the margin in this game.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
After yet another disappointing season last year where they finished 13th, the Eagles parted ways with long time coach John Worsfold and headed in a new direction. Adam Simpson was the man chosen to lead the club back up the ladder and his career as senior coach at the Eagles started really well with 3 straight wins. Since then though the Eagles have only managed to defeat one side, and that is the next to uncompetitive GWS Giants. There have been some promising signs for the future though with West Coast using their super talented forward line more effectively so far in 2014 to get the score on the board. The Eagles are a team in transition though, with several 2006 premiership stars recently retired they are continuing to blood some youngsters to build up their depth for another shot at a flag in the near future.
The Eagles midfield has taken a battering in recent years with retirements and trades, but surprisingly it stacks up fairly evenly with Collingwood in a statistical comparison. The Eagles are ranked 15th for clearances and centre clearances (Pies are 16th in both categories also) which shows they can win the hard ball as good as the Magpies central grouping. There are 2 areas where the Eagles do suffer in comparison to the Pies and that’s in contested possessions (8 less a game) and also in goals contributed by the midfield. Only Luke Shuey (8 goals) has really hit the scoreboard for West Coast while Beams, Swan, Pendlebury and Sidebottom have all assisted the Pies up forward. Collingwood did struggle in this area big time against the Crows though so there is hope for the Eagles that they can be competitive with the much hyped Magpies midfield. One are that the Eagles should dominate is in the ruck, with the experienced Dean Cox and the uber talented Nic Natanui going up against Collingwood’s young ruck duo, Witts and Grundy.
There’s little doubt that if the Eagles have an outright dominant area of the ground than it’s their forward line, even with Mark LeCras suspended for this game. They will still have several dangerous players led by Josh Kennedy (2nd most goals in the AFL) and Jack Darling (16 goals). Jamie Cripps has also become a permanent member of the Eagles forward line with the ex Saints booting 13 goals so far this season. Add the small assistance they get from the midfield and the goal kicking ability of both of their rucks and this forward line will be a test for a Collingwood backline that failed at times against Adelaide. Who plays on Kennedy is the biggest quandary for the Magpies with youngsters Keeffe and Frost maybe not being reliable enough to go with the most dangerous forward in the AFL. Nathan Brown may be bought in to play on Kennedy but no matter who comes in it’s this area the Eagles will have to exploit the Magpies in to win.
Statistically the Eagles defense is the best in the AFL only conceding an average of 72 points a game but that may be due to the defensive nature of the new coaches approach more than the backline itself. There is plenty of class down back though for West Coast with club stalwart and captain Darren Glass ably assisted by fellow key position defenders Brown and Mackenzie. Along with the talls Hurn, Yeo and Bennell provide a capable level of drive out of the backline to allow the Eagles to remain competitive. The Magpies forward line has been somewhat dysfunctional so far this season with only Jamie Elliott being a consistent performer and that will give the Eagles defense plenty of hope going into this game. Obviously Travis Cloke is the name that stands out from the Pies forward line but with only 9 goals and 15 behinds in his 8 games Cloke hasn’t been a massive threat so far in 2013. Still, you’d expect Glass and Mackenzie to share the duties in minding him.
The West Coast Eagles will head to Melbourne on Saturday refreshed and replenished after a bye weekend. Coming off the back of that big win over GWS at home the Eagles will be confident that their best football will be able to defeat the Magpies and they just may be right. I’d expect them to try and make this an ugly game, a game where 80 points is a winning score, and judging by past performances they do have the defensive ability and mindset to do this. The absence of LeCras and Waters does hurt, there’s little doubt about that but in comparison to a Collingwood list that is still missing Ben Reid and several others, the Eagles come in with the healthier list. It is a crucial game for the Eagles so you’d expect a very fierce and determined outfit at the MCG.

TIP
If you go on history the Eagles are next to no chance of winning this game, having only beaten the Magpies once on the MCG and that was back in 1995. Add to that the Eagles last win in Melbourne over Collingwood was 11 years ago and it doesn’t look good. But records are made to be broken and this Eagles team will think they have a decent chance of causing an upset, based on if nothing else the respective teams last two performances.
Final selection shouldn’t have much of a bearing on the final result with both teams going in relatively fit so we are left to judge this game based on talent and potential.
Overall the Magpies just have the stronger 22 and playing at home the week after an interstate loss has to make me lean towards a Collingwood win, although I expect it to be low scoring and tight throughout.
MAGPIES BY 15 POINTS.