Collingwood v Adelaide
Thursday May 15, 7.50pmAdelaide Oval Fox Footy / 7mate 7.30pm Weather: Min 13 Max 23 Chance of rain 10%: < 1mm Wind: NW 23kph Betting: Collingwood $1.45 Adelaide $2.80 |
On field Adelaide have been left in the dust of cross town rivals Port Adelaide, and this game is now vital to the Crows chances of playing finals in 2014. Collingwood are going better than most expected and sit amongst the premiership contending teams in the top section of the ladder. Both clubs are coming off a bye so there will be no excuses for either side on Thursday night. Of course these two sides do have history, with several finals being played out in recent years, the stand out of those being the semi final in 2009 where the Pies won with a goal in the dying seconds. There have also been some classic home and away games played out between these two and there is hope that this could be great also.
PREVIOUS FORM
The Crows started the season terribly, with three losses to Geelong, Port and Sydney their finals hopes were hanging by a thread after just 3 rounds. A revival in form after that start saw the Crows win three games in a row to even the win/loss ledger but it all fell apart against Melbourne last time out. Adelaide entered the home game versus Melbourne as short favourites but at no stage did they look near their best, as they gave up a demoralising 3 point loss to the Demons. It leaves the Crows sitting in 12th position with a 3-4 record, and makes the next few games the most important in recent history for this club. Of course there have been some positives, with Scott Thompson and Patrick Dangerfield leading the way and Josh Jenkins looking dangerous up forward. But the fact is that the Crows are not playing well at the moment, and would have to improve dramatically to worry the Pies.
Collingwood a little like Adelaide started the season slowly with only one win in their first three games, but four straight wins have pushed the Magpies into the upper echelon of the ladder. Their last win against Carlton was authoritative to say the least, as the Pies dominated the first three quarters and eventually beat their fiercest rivals by 34 points. The final margin didn’t do the Magpies justice but they happily took the win and moved on to their bye week. Collingwood’s super talented midfield gets all the headlines and names like Beams, Pendlebury, Swan, Ball, Sidebottom and their assistants dominating teams at time it’s not hard to see why. What has been even more impressive is the form of some youngsters though, with Langdon, Frost and Keeffe holding down key defensive positions in every game so far this season. Add the probable return of several senior players this week and Collingwood are really starting to look like a very formidable outfit.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood venture to Adelaide this week in about as good a position as they could be considering the tough draw and injury concerns they’ve had so far this season. Those 4 recent wins in a row have the place buzzing on and off the field and with the help of a bye plenty of players who were previously injured now come back into contention. Maxwell, Dwyer, Toovey, Fasolo, Brown, Seedsman and Broomhead will all push for inclusion this week and it’s always s good sign when you have a tough time selecting your final 22. Who goes out of the side who defeated Carlton is probably the toughest decision for the selection committee, with only youngster Ben Kennedy a logical out. Not since the premiership year of 2010 has Collingwood really had this type of depth and it is showing. It’s not only the individuals that have improved this side though, there’s little doubt that the club is more together this year on and off the field than they were last season.
Coach Nathan Buckley has the team playing a defensive style of football that is led by a standard intensity that all players must adhere to, especially when they don’t have the ball. The return of Marley Williams to senior football last round also proved a boost for the Pies, as the small running defender showed just how good he is. Yes, there might be prettier teams to watch at the moment but none are much more effective than Collingwood at the moment.
What every Pies fan is waiting for though is the return of Ben Reid to a forward line that is working ok, but not dominating sides. Reid is still listed as being 2-3 weeks away from retuning through the VFL but he may return just in time for a push for a top four position. Also top ten draft picks Scharenburg and Freeman have yet to debut just showing how strong this list is now.
Collingwood will head to Adelaide a confident group and would be fully expecting to come home with a win. The Crows won’t be a pushover though so the Magpies will have to continue their strong form to move to a 6-2 record.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
It’s been a depressing start to the season for the Crows really, with plenty of hope coming into 2014 they now find themselves in danger of slipping away from top eight contention. Of course they’ve had injury concerns with Van Berlo, Walker, Otten and Henderson not playing a game so far, but losing to Melbourne at home really isn’t on, and there’s no excuses for that type of loss. How the bye helps the Crows out is an unknown factor, on one hand it will give coach Brenton Sanderson a chance to regroup and drill into his team that they have to be better in just about every department, but on the other hand after a poor loss all you want to do is get back to playing as soon as possible. When you look at the probable Adelaide 22 for this game there is enough talent on every line for them to be competitive, it’s just a matter of which Crows outfit comes to play on Thursday night.
The Adelaide midfield seems to be full of talent and special ability but so far this year it really has been struggling. The Crows rank 14th for contested possessions and the same for clearances, although it may surprise some to say they still are ahead of Collingwood’s stellar midfield in those categories. In fact if you look at most of the key statistical categories it’s hard to see how this midfield has been getting beat by groupings of lesser reputation. Led by Dangerfield, Thompson and Sloane this midfield is the only chance the Crows have of remaining competitive in this game because if they lose this area of the game they will struggle elsewhere. Sam Jacobs may be able to get the Crows first use of the ball against the young Magpies ruck duo of Witts and Grundy, and they’ll need every bit of that advantage you’d assume.
With a record of 3-4 you would assume that the Crows forward line is struggling, but with Podsiadly, Dangerfield, Jenkins and Betts all in double figures for goals scored this season, it’s not going as bad as one would think. The return of Walker this week should make it even more effective too and although the Pies will get some experienced defenders back Adelaide is still likely to face a rather young backline. This is the area of the ground that the Crows have to excel in, they can’t waste opportunities and they will need the delivery to be clean also. The recruitment of Betts and Podsiadly has added a nice edge to this forward line and with Jenkins in fine form the Crows forward line is their strength at the moment.
Adelaide’s defense has give up too many points, and usually given them up in small periods in the games that they have lost. The probable return of Ben Rutten should help them out but the Magpies don’t just rely on their forwards to score, with their resting midfielders now all having an impact on the scoreboard. It is a relatively young defense for the Crows but against a dangerous forward set up that is supported so well like the Magpies forward line, they will have to be better than they have been recently. The way ex Magpies Chris Dawes dominated in the last game has to be of massive concern though, and with two monsters in Cloke and White to deal with this week, it’s hard to see the Crows biggest weakness holding up for the whole game.
These are desperate times for the Crows, after a poor 2013 they really can’t afford another poor year or else they risk being over taken by so many other sides. This game in particular is crucial now, a 3-5 record doesn’t read well and if the Magpies win this game that’s where Adelaide will stand. To win a game like this they will have to play better than they have at any point so far this season. They will have to be intense in their tackling, clean with their ball movement and accurate in front of goal. It’s not impossible but if this Adelaide playing group comes out like it did against Melbourne this one might get ugly.
TIP
No need to muck around here, Collingwood simply should win this game. Adelaide aren’t a top 8 side at the moment, let alone a top 4 side, and it’s only teams in that upper level of the ladder that will worry the Pies in this form. Although I’m expecting a better effort from the Crows than last time out, Collingwood will win comfortably and go to 6-2.
MAGPIES BY 28 POINTS.
No comments :
Post a Comment