| 2017 AFL Round 1 COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS Time & Place: Friday March 24, 7:50pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm EDT Weather: Min 14 Max 26 Chance of rain 50%: <1mm Wind: SE 16kph Betting: Collingwood $2.80 Western Bulldogs $1.46 |
After three years out of the finals, the Magpies know that season 2017 needs to deliver a lot more, and a good start is essential. In some regards, facing the Bulldogs in round one is ideal timing for the Magpies, who simply need to make an early statement. A win against the reigning premier would be a huge confidence boost.
Pre-Season Form-line
Collingwood had a positive JLT Community Series. If it weren't for an Ed Langdon goal after the siren, the Magpies would have won all three of their practice matches. The ball movement was relatively slick and scoring came quite freely. On the other hand, a concern of mine to arise out of the JLT Series was the high rate of scoring that opposition sides achieved from Collingwood turnovers in the back half. It's a young Collingwood defence, and good sides like the Western Bulldogs are going to capitalize if this area of the game is not cleaned up. On the other hand, the Bulldogs lost their opening two JLT games, and were 35-points behind against the Gold Coast Suns in their final match. Fortunately for them, a second half blitz saw the Bulldogs overrun the Suns and record an impressive 21-point victory. It was a real warning sign to the competition and the second half comeback will have given the Bulldogs plenty of confidence ahead of round one.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the Bulldogs can hit their stride in 2017 after such an amazing run in the finals last season.
In such an even competition, Luke Beveridge will know that there is no time for complacency, and his side needs to start 2017 strongly.
Beveridge will be hoping any cobwebs have now been blown off in the JLT Series, and his side looks relatively primed for another big season.
At the Selection Table
Both sides have some injury concerns on the eve of the season.
Collingwood in particular was dealt a heavy blow this week with Jordan De Goey and Levi Greenwood both ruled out for some time. The injuries compound the fact that the club has already been forced to rule out Jamie Elliott and Daniel Wells, while Ben Sinclair has been placed on the long-term injury list following his serious hamstring injury. It means as many as five best 22 players will be unavailable for round one.
In more positive news, though, the form of youngsters such as Tom Phillips, James Aish and Josh Smith has been pleasing, and all look ready to step in to fill the void.
Collingwood may also blood some new recruits such as Chris Mayne, Lynden Dunn and Will Hoskin-Elliott, and former Gold Coast Sun Henry Schade is also a chance to debut for the club after being promoted off the rookie list.
Scott Pendlebury is also expected to play after Achilles soreness forced him out of the final JLT match.
The Bulldogs have some injury issues of their own, with Jordan Roughead likely to miss the first month of the season with a hamstring issue. Jack Redpath and Mitch Wallis also remain unavailable following injuries sustained last season. Roughead's injury has added some pressure to the Bulldogs ruck division considering Tom Campbell has carried an ankle injury this pre-season.
Fortunately, Campbell has now resumed full training and looks as if he will be available to face the Magpies in round one. Matthew Boyd also sustained a bad ear injury in his final JLT hitout, but will wear a head-guard in order to play this weekend.
Robert Murphy looks set to make his long-awaited return following his knee injury last year, and Travis Cloke looks should make his debut for the Bulldogs.
Cloke will be a huge news story heading into this game following his departure from Collingwood last year. Stewart Crameri is also in-line for selection following his suspension last season, meaning the Bulldogs have a beefed up forward line this season.
Recent History
These two teams had two terrific battles last season.
The first clash was in round 10, where the Magpies blew numerous opportunities early in the game only to be overrun by the Bulldogs in the last quarter. It was a match marred by injuries, and the Magpies had no fit men on the interchange going into the last quarter.
Despite probably out-playing the Bulldogs in the first three quarters, the Magpies eventually lost by 21 points. Luke Dahlhaus polled three votes with 37 disposals and Easton Wood kept his side in the game with 13 marks across half back, polling two votes. Scott Pendlebury was Collingwood's best with 32 disposals, and polled one vote.
The next meeting was in round 21, where the Bulldogs scraped over the line by three points. It was a terrific battle, with the margin even heading into the last quarter.
It was a match that will be remembered for the battle between Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar, two of the young guns of the competition. Bontempelli polled three votes with 26 disposals and two goals, while Treloar was equally impressive with 35 disposals and a goal which was enough to earn him the two votes. Dahlhaus was again prominent with 31 disposals, and polled the final vote.
Focus on Collingwood
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| Taylor Adams had 21 disposals and five tackles when Collingwood last met the Western Bulldogs in round 21, 2016. |
Undoubtedly Buckley's focus over the pre-season would have been ball movement and cleaner disposal. This has been very evident so far in the off-season. Without the big presence of Travis Cloke up forward, the Magpies will need to be a lot more pin-point with their disposal, which goes a long way to explaining the recruitment of Daniel Wells.
But there are many other areas of Collingwood's game that will be scrutinized this week. The first one will be clearances. Collingwood was relatively poor in clearances during the JLT series, but was actually one of the stronger sides in relation to scoring from clearances. With such a strong midfield, Collingwood could consider stoppages as a major goal-scoring avenue.
The other area of focus will be the defensive structures. It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood again attempts to adopt a zone defence, or whether it goes back to more of a man-on-man style which we saw towards the end of last season.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Ben Reid – Reid was able to return for the final JLT game and he looked really sharp. He immediately slotted in across half back with a whopping 26 disposals and 18 marks. With such a transformation in Collingwood's defence, Ben Reid is the most vital cog and it is important that he remains on the field. It is possible that he will line-up against former teammate Travis Cloke on the weekend.
Tom Phillips – The standout performer of the pre-season has clearly been Tom Phillips. Starting way back on the first day of pre-season where he blitzed the field in the 2km time-trial, Phillips has really shown off his gut-running ability in the JLT series and was Collingwood's leading disposal getter over the pre-season. Phillips got a taste of AFL football last season and showed some promising signs. He looks set to really cement his spot in 2017. A few injuries to other midfielders have opened a door for him.
Josh Smith – Similarly to Phillips, Smith is another younger player who looks set to really cement his spot in 2017. Although he was able to play 18 consecutive games last season, Smith would know that his spot is far from secure with so many players competing for positions. But he continues to impress every time he pulls on the Black and White, and was particularly brilliant against Richmond in the final JLT game with 29 disposals. Despite an ankle scare a few weeks ago, Smith looks set for a really strong season.
Focus on the Western Bulldogs
It was one of the greatest sporting stories last season. Injury-riddled, and languishing in seventh spot on the ladder, most experts expected the Bulldogs to lose their opening finals game without much fuss. But a never-say-die attitude saw the Doggies become the first team under the new finals format to win a premiership from outside the top four.
Most people refer to the success as a fairytale story, but it's easy to forget that the Bulldogs revolutionized the way football was played in 2016. It was a frantic style of game, based on hard-running and a team defence. Never have I seen a midfield group run as hard defensively. From the naked eye, it seemed at times as if the Western Bulldogs had more players on the field, such was the work rate of the side.
But now, every team in the competition will have now studied the Bulldogs game plan and will be looking to replicate it. Already in the JLT series, we have seen many sides really put an emphasis on numbers around the ball and getting back quickly to help in defence. Once the ball is recovered, everyone then works really hard offensively to transition the ball. The Bulldogs weren't necessarily the cleanest or prettiest team offensively, but the sheer weight of numbers meant they were able to scrounge the ball forward at every opportunity.
Many sides that have won premierships ahead of the typical timeframe have struggled in the following season, so, if that history is a guide, Luke Beveridge has a huge job in ensuring his side stays ahead of the competition.
Fortunately, the Bulldogs have recruited well over the off-season by picking up Travis Cloke who is going to undoubtedly add a new dimension to the forward line. The return of Stewart Crameri means that the forward line is a lot stronger this season, which is a daunting prospect.
Player Focus – Western Bulldogs
Luke Dahlhaus – Dahlhaus polled four Brownlow Medal votes against Collingwood last season, with a combined 68 disposals across the two matches. He sneaks under the radar with the likes of Marcus Bontempelli stealing the limelight, and he is a very damaging midfielder who can push forward for a goal. He always plays well against Collingwood, so expect another big game from him. He had a lot of the ball in the pre-season competition, so he looks ready to go for another solid year.
Easton Wood – Wood relinquishes his captaincy this year, but remains a powerful part of the Bulldogs' structure. Considering the Bulldogs rely so heavily on counter-attack, Easton Wood is often the first link the chain, going back bravely to take an intercept mark to effect the turnover. The Magpies have a different forward line this year, so it will be vital the Collingwood's midfield does not bomb the ball long in the direction of Wood.
Tom Boyd – The finals series justified all the money the Bulldogs have invested into Tom Boyd, and in my opinion he was the most important player on the field in the Grand Final. It is going to be interesting to see whether Boyd can ride that momentum into season 2017. The inclusions of Travis Cloke and Stewart Crameri will either help him a lot, or alternatively may mean that he spends a lot more time in the ruck which is where he played some of his best football last season. He looks set to really take the competition by the scruff of the neck, but it will be interesting to see how he fits in alongside Cloke.
The Wrap Up
After two thrilling battles last season, I am expecting another terrific game on Friday night. Although the Bulldogs looked a little bit rusty in the pre-season, they still displayed their trademark fight and never gave up. So if Collingwood is able to cause an upset, it won't come easily. The Western Bulldogs have every right to go into this game as favourites, but the Magpies looked really sharp in the off-season and should be primed for the battle. Although injuries are a continual concern, I think Collingwood will still have a competitive side out there which can really trouble its more fancied opponent.
There should be a blockbuster crowd at the MCG and we should see a cracking match.
I'm tipping the upset. It's good to be back!
The tip: Collingwood by 4 points
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