| 2017 AFL Round 2 COLLINGWOOD v RICHMOND Time & Place: Thursday March 30, 7:20pm EDT MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 7:00pm EDT Weather: Min 12 Max 18 Chance of rain 80%: 1-5mm Wind: SW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.75 Richmond $2.10 |
Collingwood is one of those sides, after a narrow loss to the Western Bulldogs last week. Despite a very valiant effort, there is no doubt that the Magpies had plenty of opportunities to beat the reigning premiers but squandered their chances. Against good sides, you simply can't make that many mistakes.
The Magpies face a rejuvenated Richmond that is side fresh off a 43-point win over Carlton last week. Led by an inspired effort from Dustin Martin, the Tigers looked far more attacking and confident with the football. After a year to forget in 2016, the Tigers look to have had a strong pre-season and look to be playing a more instinctive style of game this year.
The match will be built up by some externally as a battle between two high profile coaches, and both would be hoping for very strong starts. Collingwood can't afford to start the season with two consecutive losses, particularly with Sydney to come next week. On the other hand, Richmond has an opportunity to kick off the season with two straight victories. Clearly there is plenty on the line for both teams. The competition is incredibly even, and every win counts for so much.
All eyes will be on the MCG this Thursday night for this important battle. The Tigers have the advantage of a seven-day break, while Collingwood has only had six. With both sides pulling up relatively unscathed from their round one battles, I doubt the shortened break will count for much given it is still so early in the season.
Recent History
Collingwood and Richmond faced off twice in 2016. The first encounter was in round two, where Richmond was again fresh off a win against Carlton, while Collingwood had lost its round one match to Sydney. Every Collingwood supporter will remember the dying four seconds of this game, where a Brodie Grundy goal handed Collingwood a last gasp victory by one-point.
Alex Fasolo was the star of the show for Collingwood, polling three Brownlow votes after a six-goal performance. Adam Treloar polled two votes with 32 disposals and Trent Cotchin polled one vote with a match-high 38 disposals.
The second encounter was in round 20, where it was the Tigers who were able to exact revenge from their earlier season heartbreak, winning by a comfortable 15 points. Alex Rance polled three votes for his super game in defence, amassing 26 disposals and also shutting down Travis Cloke. Martin was prolific with 34 disposals, earning him two votes, while James Aish polled the one vote with his 18 disposals and two goals.
At The Selection Table
Collingwood has one forced change this week after Travis Varcoe was suspended for his hit on Luke Dahlhaus last week. He will miss the one game. Aish was a late withdrawal last week with tonsillitis, so should be a direct replacement this week provided he is back to full health. Tim Broomhead was also the emergency last week and remains a strong chance to break into the side.
Jamie Elliott will miss another week, but remains in contention for the round three battle against Sydney, as does Levi Greenwood, who has recovered quickly from a hip operation. Rupert Wills and Daniel Wells continue to work towards full fitness but remain a couple of weeks away.
The Tigers will be unlikely to make too many changes to a side that comfortably beat Carlton last week. Ben Lennon continues his good VFL form and is knocking on the door for selection, as is Jayden Short. But I feel it will be unlikely that Damien Hardwick will make too many changes to the forward line that functioned efficiently last round. Anthony Miles is also available if required.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood dominated the Bulldogs in just about every statistical category last week. It had 39 more disposals, 18 more inside 50s, 26 more contested disposals, 17 more uncontested disposals, 16 more clearances and also 25 more hitouts. It was a very strong performance against the Bulldogs. Unfortunately, inefficiency going forward and turnovers cost the Magpies dearly, with the Bulldogs able to score heavily on turnover. Inaccuracy in-front of goal was also a major issue.
Although not many would have tipped Collingwood to beat the reigning premiers, the team will no doubt be ruing this game as a missed opportunity. The positive news though is that if the Magpies can bring that level of intensity to every game, then they are going to win more often than they lose. It was positive in particular to see the Magpies dominate contested footy and clearances which, for mine, were areas of concern over the pre-season.
Although at times the Bulldogs were able to kick some easy goals out the back of the Collingwood defence, it is fair to say that a lot of those goals came from costly turnovers where the defence just simply didn't have enough time to get back. On the other hand, the Bulldogs were simply cleaner and just didn't give up as many easy goals.
Heading into this round, the Magpies need to be more efficient going forward and make less mistakes. With 62 inside 50s, the Magpies should have been able to kick a winning score. It's easy to say, but ultimately it is where I feel the game was lost last week.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Adam Treloar – Treloar was typically prominent last week with 33 disposals and a goal, and hopefully his efficiency will continue to improve this week. He'll likely still get plenty of jeers from the Richmond crowd who still remember that he chose Collingwood as his preferred destination over Punt Road. He has had a terrific pre-season, which is very important considering he had no pre-season heading into the 2016 season. He looks primed for a massive 2017.
Scott Pendlebury – Statistically, last week's game against the Bulldogs was one of Scott's best in his career. He was the declared as the best on field, with 35 disposals and two goals capping off a complete performance. After such a difficult year in 2016 where he battled numerous niggling injuries, the skipper looks determined to bounce back in 2017.
Jeremy Howe – I lost count last week how many times Howe saved the day for Collingwood in round one with a terrific intercept mark. Overall, he had 26 disposals and 11 marks, which is a massive performance by a defender. Howe is another who had no pre-season in 2016 but has had a much stronger lead-up into this year. He is quickly establishing himself as one of the premier half backs in the competition and has really made a huge mark at Collingwood in his short time at the club.
Focus on Richmond
A lot has been written about Richmond this week and its more attacking game plan and willingness to play instinctively. But the thing that impressed me most about the Tigers last week was the fact that they had 87 tackles. It indicates a real hunger.
Nonetheless, it was hard to ignore the difference in ball movement. It was evident throughout the JLT Series that Richmond was going to play in a more offensive manner, and that was clearly the case last Thursday night against Carlton.
Importantly, the Tigers have also selected a much more nimble forward line which now has real pace. The likes of Jason Castagna and Dan Butler have been promoted to the senior list, which, coupled with Daniel Rioli and Sam Lloyd makes for a very dangerous forward setup. Add to that the fact that Martin is spending more time forward, Richmond now has a multi-dimensional forward line that is going to worry a lot of sides.
There was less of a reliance on the talls to kick goals. Jack Riewoldt, in particular, only kicked one of Richmond's twenty goals, and Ben Griffiths didn't kick any. Instead, the Tigers had 12 individual goal-scorers, indicating a much healthier spread and more offensive running from the midfield.
Judgment on Richmond will likely be reserved for the moment, but a victory against the Magpies this week though could get the Tiger Bandwagon rolling.
Player Focus – Richmond
Dustin Martin – It's hard to ignore Dusty's 33 disposal and four goal game in round one. He has been the toast of the football world this week, with many experts predicting a potential Brownlow Medal on the horizon. He is clearly going to spend a lot of time forward this year, which makes sense considering he has the highest percentage ratio of any player in the competition for winning one on one contests inside 50. In summary, he barely loses a one on one contest. It makes him a nightmare match-up because there are not many players in the competition that could match him through both the midfield and the forward line. It means most sides are going to rely on a number of players to quell Dusty's influence.
Toby Nankervis – Despite the fanfare over the recruitment of Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy, Nankervis may go down as the most important off-season recruit for the Tigers. Nankervis was an emergency for the Swans in last year's Grand Final and has quickly made the number one ruck position his own at Tigerland. Although he was perhaps beaten by Matthew Kreuzer in the ruck in round one, Nankervis has an influence around the ground and managed to push forward and kick two goals. It will be a defining match up this week against Grundy.
Daniel Rioli – Although he only had 10 disposals last week, his influence on the game was quite profound. He kicked two beautiful goals, and also took a fantastic mark that would have made Cyril proud. He looks to have beefed up nicely over the off-season and looks set for a breakout year. Rioli is forming a nice partnership with Butler and Castagna, who are all offering a lot offensively, but also gives the Tigers a lot of defensive pressure at ground level as well.
The Wrap Up
Realistically, this is a game that Collingwood simply must win.
If the Magpies can bring the same effort as last week, they can get the points against Richmond.
But if the Tigers are fired up and keen to win their opening two games, which would be only the second time in the last 20 years they have achieved this feat. The Tigers have also won three of their last four games against Collingwood.
Dustin Martin looms as a huge factor in this game, but the Magpies also have multiple weapons in the midfield, including a fit Scott Pendlebury.
The issue for Collingwood is whether it can make the most of its inside 50's and score more efficiently. While the Magpies have been criticized about their defence, the fact is that they held the Bulldogs to only 44 entries last week.
Therefore, if Collingwood can capitalize on its forward entries, it should win this week's game.
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