| 2017 AFL Round 8 COLLINGWOOD v GWS Time & Place: Saturday May 13, 4:35pm EST Sydney Showground Stadium TV: 7mate / Fox Footy 4:30pm EST Weather: Min 13 Max 23 Chance of rain 70%: 1-5mm Wind: ENE 17kph Betting: Collingwood $4.20 GWS $1.23 |
Both teams are coming off somewhat unexpected losses in round seven and will be keen to atone this weekend.
The Magpies had a weekend to forget against Carlton. The Blues spoiled the 125th year celebrations with an upset victory to the tune of 23 points. The loss means Collingwood now sits in 15th spot on the ladder, with only two wins from its opening seven games. Finals prospects are quickly fading, and there isn't a lot of margin for error now. Simply put, the Magpies must win this weekend to restore hope.
But GWS is a daunting prospect. Many considered the Giants the overwhelming premiership favorite heading into this season. While the Giants haven't necessarily hit their full stride as yet, they still sit in second spot on the ladder with five wins. They will know that the competition is very even at the moment, with only one game separating second and ninth position. Two straight losses could see the Giants come straight back into the pack.
A major positive for Collingwood, though, is the fact that it has never lost to GWS. The only other side in the competition that boasts this record is West Coast. The Magpies similarly went in as underdogs last season, but produced a resounding victory.
The Magpies will again be underdogs, but there will be a sense of confidence given the unblemished record against the Giants.
Recent History
Collingwood last faced the Giants in round 16 last season, and won by 32 points. Despite the Giants kicking seven goals in the opening quarter to three, Collingwood really put the foot down after that and blew the Giants away.
Brodie Grundy had a breakout game, dominating the ruck against Shane Mumford and also picking up 26 disposals. It was enough to earn him the three Brownlow votes. Taylor Adams also lifted against his old side with match-high 31 disposals, earning him two votes. One vote went to Travis Cloke who had a day out booting four goals. For the Giants, Jeremy Cameron booted five goals, while Stephen Coniglio had 30 disposals.
At the Selection Table
All eyes will be on Collingwood's two prime midfielders this weekend in Adam Treloar and Scott Pendlebury. Treloar has been battling injury niggles after such a grueling schedule over the past three rounds. Scott Pendlebury's wife is also due to give birth to the pair's first child this weekend, and has made it clear that he will be present at the birth. It means there is a chance he will be also unavailable for this weekend's match.
In more positive news, Daniel Wells and Henry Schade are available for selection after been rested in round seven. Matt Scharenberg, James Aish and Jarryd Blair were terrific at VFL level last week as well and will put their hands up. Travis Varcoe, though, will again miss with his hamstring strain.
The Giants also have a selection dilemma this weekend with Lachie Whitfield due to return from his eight-game suspension. The question will be whether the club elects to bring him straight back into the AFL side, or whether he returns through the NEAFL.
There will be some other forced changes for coach Leon Cameron to make, with Adam Kennedy rupturing his ACL last weekend, and Jacob Hopper breaking his finger. Sam Reid should return from a hamstring issue, while Harry Perryman is a chance to be selected after a standout NEAFL game. Matt De Boer is also a chance. The Giants have a relatively long injury list with the likes of Brett Deledio, Ryan Griffin, Matthew Buntine and Nick Haynes all out long-term, as well as Toby Greene, who has one more week to serve on his suspension.
Focus on Collingwood
There's no doubt the Magpies were heavy-legged last week against the Blues. A fair bit has been made about the fact that Collingwood played three games in 12 days, but I think the bigger issue is that two of these games were played in the wet.
Despite this, Collingwood continues to be plagued by inconsistency, and it has become hard to predict how the Magpies are going to play any given week.
There could not have been a bigger contrast from the round six victory over Geelong to the round seven defeat to Carlton. The Blues were stronger in just about every area, including contested possessions which is an area Collingwood has been strong in this season. Of greater concern was the inefficiency going forward, which has been a massive problem all year, and again hurt the Magpies last weekend. After having 13 individual goal-kickers against Geelong, only four Magpies hit the scoreboard against Carlton, for a total of eight goals.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Jamie Elliott – One of the few positives to come out of Saturday's loss was the form of Jamie Elliott, who is looking more and more confident every week. He booted three goals, and his work rate was really high. No other forwards had any impact on the game for the Magpies except for Elliott. If he can get some better delivery, he looks to be on the verge of recapturing some of his best form.
Ben Reid – After being rested from the game against Geelong, Ben Reid slotted back in perfectly last week with 25 disposals and 12 marks. He was marking everything coming his way and generally used the ball well by foot. There has been a call from some Pies supporters to experiment with Reid moving forward, but coach Nathan Buckley will be reluctant to make this move given the stability Reid provides in defence. With Henry Schade back in the side this week, maybe it is an option this week to lend support to Darcy Moore.
Focus on GWS
Despite quite an extensive injury list, the Giants are still clearly the most talented side in the competition. The question though is whether this side can play as a team when the pressure is on. The Giants completely fell away against St Kilda in the second half, as they struggled to influence the game as the Saints mounted pressure.
But the Giants are a daunting side on paper and are an offensive juggernaut. They obviously have a very strong midfield, and are the number one ranked side in the competition for clearances. The midfield is also led by Shane Mumford in the ruck, who looks intent on flattening his opponents every week. Up forward, Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Rory Lobb are three monster forwards (no wonder they call this side the Giants!).
The Magpies will trouble the Giants as they are one of the only sides in the competition that can match for talent in the midfield. But the Giants clearly have the great firepower up forward and a more offensive mindset off half back.
Player Focus – GWS
Tom Scully – Scully runs harder than just about any other midfielder in the competition, and barely ever comes off either. He was a real standout last week with 30 disposals and two goals, and is averaging 25 disposals so far this season. Many criticized the Giants early for the big investment they made in Scully, however it is paying dividends now as he is fully fit and really tearing games apart. Along with the likes of Jordan Kelly and Dylan Shiel, the Giants have some real polish in the midfield.
Jonathon Patton – After multiple knee reconstructions, Patton is having somewhat of a breakout year in 2017. He has booted 12 goals from only five games so far, but it's his hulking presence up forward that has been most impressive. He is taking some big contested marks, and kicking very accurately. He was the key to the Giants winning the close game against the Bulldogs two weeks ago with some huge last quarter gals. At 198cm and 101kgs, he is a monster for any defender to match-up on, and looms as a real danger player this weekend.
The Wrap Up
This week's game has a familiar feel to the 2016 encounter, with the Magpies rank underdogs and the Giants looking very intimidating on paper. So Collingwood will go into this game with a bit of confidence knowing they can cause the upset.
Collingwood needs to dominate through the midfield, so the availability or otherwise of Pendlebury and Treloar is crucial. The Magpies need to play with more freedom as they did against Geelong only a fortnight ago, and obviously need to capitalize on their chances. It is also essential that Collingwood doesn't allow the likes of Heath Shaw, Nathan Wilson and Zac Williams to move the ball freely off half back. Buckley elected to tag Shaw last year, so it will be interesting to see if a similar tactic is used this week.
The season is on the line now for Collingwood, and it is time to stand up. On the other hand, if the Giants are to win the 2017 premiership, it is danger games such as this one which they should be winning consistently. There's plenty of the line this week, and I expect a fiery response from both sides.
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