Preview Round 7: Collingwood v Carlton

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 7 COLLINGWOOD v CARLTON Time & Place: Saturday May 6, 2:10pm EST MCG TV: Fox Sports 2:00pm EST Weather: Min 11 Max 20 Chance of rain 80%: 1-5mm Wind: WNW 26kph Betting: Collingwood $1.35 Carlton $3.20

Collingwood's resounding upset victory over the previously undefeated Geelong has injected new optimism into the Pies' season. But if the Magpies were under pressure last week to atone for a poor Anzac Day showing, tension will be at fever pitch for their clash with old enemy Carlton. If the Pies are to have any chance of making a run at the top eight, a win over old enemy Carlton is a non-negotiable. And it won't be easy given it will be Collingwood's third game in just 12 days, and the Blues will also be aiming for their third win after a boilover victory of their own against winless Sydney. However, the Pies' improving midfield – enhanced by former Roo Daniel Wells – should have too much power for the Blues in what would provide the Magpie Army with the perfect celebration for the club's 125th birthday.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R15, 2016, Collingwood 8.9 (57) d Carlton 6.9 (45) at the MCG
2. R7, 2016, Carlton 15.9 (99) d Collingwood 12.12 (84) at the MCG
3. R19, 2015, Collingwood 16.9 (105) d Carlton 13.9 (87) at the MCG
4. R5, 2015, Collingwood 18.12 (120) d Carlton 6.9 (45) at the MCG
5. R15, 2014, Collingwood 13.13 (91) d Carlton 11.10 (76) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Taking the ball inside 50 hasn't been a problem for the Magpies, who are ranked fourth for inside 50s and equal-sixth for marks inside 50. The Blues are 13th and 15th respectively in these categories.
2. The Pies' major problem has been conversion – they are the worst goalkicking team in the AFL, blazing a wasteful 67.88, at a strike rate of just 40.9 per cent. They've kicked more behinds than goals in every game.
3. No team has received fewer free kicks this season than Collingwood's 99 – 35 fewer than the top-ranked Brisbane Lions. The Blues are equal-seventh with 116 frees. However the two clubs have conceded the least frees.
4. The last time these teams met it wasn't a memorable night – in perfect conditions only 14 goals were scored. Pies skipper Scott Pendlebury was best-afield with 34 disposals, eight clearances and a goal.
5. No two teams have played each other more than Collingwood and Carlton. They've met 253 times, with the Blues just holding sway – 126 to 123, with four draws. However, the Magpies have won seven of the past eight.
6. Ex-Giant Adam Treloar's star continues to rise. After three rounds he ranked 19th in the Schick AFL Player Ratings but the blond dynamo has since climbed to a personal best of No.13.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Nathan Buckley.
Just as it was last week, and the week before that, and … It sounds like a broken record, but nothing short of victory will keep the wolves from the door of the under siege Magpie coach. Buckley's two wins this season – against-the-odds triumphs over Sydney and Geelong – have provided the blueprint for success. The question is: can 'Bucks' rouse his boys to win a game they enter as warm favourites after consecutive short breaks?

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 19 points.