Preview Round 10: Collingwood v Brisbane

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 10 COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE Time & Place: Sunday May 28, 1:10pm EST MCG TV: Fox Footy 1:00pm EST Weather: Min 10 Max 15 Chance of rain 90%: 1-5mm Wind: WNW 24kph Betting: Collingwood $1.08 Brisbane $8.00

Collingwood's season – and presumably Nathan Buckley's coaching career – hangs by a thread at 3-6 after producing a Houdini act against Hawthorn, but this Sunday afternoon encounter with the bottom team represents a golden opportunity for a welcome percentage booster. The Lions, after upsetting Gold Coast in round one, have lost their past eight games by an average of 44 points. In their most recent losses to Hawthorn and Adelaide, they were competitive before being overpowered in the second half – a pattern that's likely to continue here. In-form Dayne Beams, who will lead the Lions against his old club for the first time, will no doubt receive a torrid reception from his former teammates and will need all the help he can get against Pendlebury, Treloar, Wells & co. If ever the Pies are going to fill their boots, this is it.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R8, 2016, Collingwood 20.23 (143) d Brisbane Lions 10.5 (65) at the Gabba
2. R1, 2015, Collingwood 12.14 (86) d Brisbane Lions 11.8 (74) at the Gabba
3. R21, 2014, Brisbane Lions 18.15 (123) d Collingwood 8.8 (56) at the MCG
4. R10, 2013, Collingwood 14.16 (100) d Brisbane Lions 7.9 (51) at the Gabba
5. R7, 2012, Collingwood 17.14 (116) d Brisbane Lions 8.10 (58) at the Gabba

THE SIX POINTS

1. The Magpies' pattern in 2017 has been consistent – a win followed by consecutive defeats. The Lions have now lost their past eight games by an average margin of 50 points.
2. In their most recent clash – at the Gabba in round eight last year – Collingwood had the first 21 scoring shots, blazing 8.13 (61) on their way to a 78-point win. Adam Treloar was best afield with 36 disposals and three goals.
3. No team has won fewer quarters this season than the Lions, who have outscored their opponents in only 10 of a possible 36 quarters, and have won just one final quarter. Collingwood has won 14 quarters.
4. Collingwood has won five of its past six contests with the Lions, and seven of nine since 2009. The Pies have triumphed by some big margins too, with three decided by more than 50 points.
5. The Magpies are ranked third in clearances this season, averaging 39 a game. The Lions are equal-seventh with an average of 38.4, but are fourth in centre clearances, compared to the Pies' 12th.
6. Jeremy Howe is enjoying a terrific season in defence for the Magpies and has lifted himself to a career-best ranking of No.78 in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. Just a year ago the former Melbourne forward was the 167th ranked player.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Alex Fasolo.
Led the Pies' goalkicking last year and, despite wayward kicking, was on track to do it again until recently. The explosive, extroverted forward has tallied just 5.8 in his past six outings, and he has been held goalless in his past two games. Another poor one here and his spot in the team might come under question.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 42 points