Preview Round 4: Collingwood v Essendon

SPORTAL Collingwood v Essendon Saturday April 25, 2.40pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 2.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 16 Chance of rain 90%: 5-10mm Wind: WSW 24kph Betting: Collingwood $2.90 Essendon $1.42 It’s one of the biggest events on the AFL calendar, and this year is set to be a cracker. Essendon and Collingwood will come together on Saturday afternoon at the MCG in front of a crowd that is expected to touch 90,000. Both sides have enjoyed promising starts to the season, but there are still many critics to answer for both teams. For Collingwood, the statistics paint a generally positive picture. They lead the competition for inside 50s in 2015, which was finally reflected on the scoreboard in Round 3 against St. Kilda. In addition to this, the Pies lead the competition in contested possession, a prized scalp considering sides such as Fremantle, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn pride themselves in this area. Despite this, in the cold light of day, the Pies wins so far in 2015 have come against sides not predicted to feature in September in Brisbane and St. Kilda, and they were taken apart by a genuine top four prospect in Adelaide in Round 2. Pressure is also mounting on coach Nathan Buckley, who one would think would need to lead the Pies to the finals this year if he is to keep his job. This is a massive game for the Magpies if they are to be considered genuine finals contenders in season 2015. For Essendon, their start to the season has surprised many, considering they have pushed both Grand Finalists from last year to the end, having managed to knock off the defending premier in Hawthorn in Round 2. They looked in control against Carlton, and were never genuinely threatened by the Blues last Saturday. They sit 13th in the competition for contested possessions, but this may be a little misleading. Their inside and outside midfield compliment each other perfectly, finding the balance between brute strength, and outside run. The have played a strong, fast and attacking style of football in the first few rounds, bringing quality opposition unstuck with their precise ball movement. Carlisle and Zaharakis seem to be finding early form (despite both being lean last weekend in terms of disposals). Their only downfall seems to be their inability to close out games, which should come as no surprise considering their pre-season ASADA dramas, but this will get better throughout the year. Key Match-Ups Travis Cloke v Cale Hooker This will be the biggest match-up of the day, with Travis Cloke holding the key to Collingwood’s success. Cloke loves playing against the Dons, having kicked more goals against them, than any other club. He squandered a lot of easy opportunities last week, but despite this, still finished with five majors – a scary proposition for any defender. Cale Hooker on the other hand, has shut down the likes of Roughead, Franklin and Tippett (to an extent) in previous weeks. He’ll need to be at his best to ensure Cloke has a quiet day. Jobe Watson v Dane Swan This is a finger-licking match-up for all the midfield enthusiasts out there, with two of the game’s best big-bodied midfielders going head-to-head. Both are coming off massive efforts last week, with Watson gathering 36 and Swan 39 possessions. With both sides having plenty of outside running options, it may come down to which of these players can give these runners first use of the ball. In another twist, the weather is expected to turn nasty throughout the game, and a wet ball would only amplify the inside role that these men may have to play in order to lead their side to victory. Result It’s very tough to judge form on ANZAC Day, with emotion and momentum often the game’s driving factors. Both are coming off solid wins, and will be looking to have an early influence, through physicality and outside run. Essendon will start favourites, and so they should, having played quality football against quality opposition so far this season. It’s tough to see their balanced midfield succumbing to the streakiness of Collingwood, who may turn up on fire, or wilt under Essendon’s ball-movement and pressure. Bombers by 24.

ROAR There have been so many memorable moments in the Anzac Day showpiece match, including the 1995 draw, the breath-taking performance of Andrew Lovett in 2005, and match-winning goals by David Zaharakis (Essendon) and Jarryd Blair (Collingwood) in 2009 and 2012 respectively. The Bombers entered this season having had 34 of their past and present players cleared of using a banned drug as part of the club’s controversial supplements program, and could so easily have been 3-0 to start the year. They led the Sydney Swans by 41 points deep in the third quarter in the opening round before capitulating to lose by 12 points. They went on to upset Hawthorn by two points in Round 2 and then defeat Carlton by 25 in Round 3. It puts them in good stead ahead of the match against the Pies, who will have the advantage of an eight-day break after having thrashed St Kilda by 74 points last Friday night, bouncing back from a poor showing against Adelaide in Round 2. The Pies’ only other victory for the season was a 12-point win over the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba in Round 1. In an interesting footnote, Essendon development coach and former Melbourne coach Mark Neeld will once again be involved in the Anzac Day match, having spent four years as an assistant coach at Collingwood between 2008 and 2011. Prediction: Essendon by 20 points.