THIS season was never supposed to be the one where Collingwood pushed for a premiership. With the 12th-youngest list in the competition but a solid group of senior players, the Pies were expected to push for the top eight, maybe even cement a finals berth.
Twelve rounds into the 2016 season, however, and the Magpies' chances of featuring in September are as likely as a white Christmas in Cairns.
Injuries have decimated them, but the Pies, on paper, are better than a 4-8 side.
Ahead of their Round 13 bye, we reflect on Collingwood's 2016 campaign to date in our mid-season report card.
Pre-season expectations
After two consecutive near finals misses and such busy exchange periods over the past two off-seasons, Collingwood was expected to push for finals, if not sneak into the top eight, this year. In fact, midfield young gun Taylor Adams declared to the Herald Sun that it would be a "100 per cent failure" if the Pies didn't feature in the finals in 2016.
Have they been met? (4-8, 14th)
Certainly not. Halfway through the season — and coming off a humiliating defeat courtesy of the Demons on Queen's Birthday — the Pies sit 14th on the ladder with a 4-8 record. It's a far cry from where the Pies sat at this stage last year (fourth with an 8-3 record) before tumbling out of the top eight.
Best win so far
Collingwood couldn't have been more impressive in its gutsy, morale-boosting win over Geelong at the MCG in Round 9. The Pies gave their fans hope that a top-eight spot was a genuine possibility as they blitzed the Cats in the first term, booting 7.5 to 0.3. They also won the disposals (124-99), inside 50s (20-12), (tackles 24-13) and centre clearances (5-0) in the first quarter. Perhaps the most impressive aspect about their win was how they held their ground when the Cats challenged in the final term, kicking five of the last seven goals of the match to walk away 24-point winners.
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| Mason Cox starred in Collingwood's win over Geelong. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: News Corp Australia |
Worst loss so far
A few to choose from, but the Pies' 67-point loss to Port Adelaide two rounds ago was as humiliating as it gets. The Pies gave Port countless end-to-end goals as their defensive system and mechanisms were exposed by Ken Hinkley's men on the MCG. Of Port's 19 goals, 12 came directly in front from within 40m, with seven majors kicked from the goalsquare. The Power kicked 4.0 (24) from kick-ins, while they outscored the Pies by 25 points in scores from turnover differential. What made it so disappointing was that Nathan Buckley's men had just put up three brilliant performances, including wins over Brisbane and Geelong and a gallant loss to the Western Bulldogs the week before.
Greatest asset
We haven't seen it enough this season, but Collingwood's defensive pressure on the ball carrier is second to none when the playing group is fully switched on. The Pies are ranked fourth in the competition for tackle differential, proving how damaging they can be without the footy. The midfield group is still full of class, led so wonderfully by Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom. And the Pies have found a great little one-two defensive combination in Ben Reid and Jeremy Howe, who have been excellent at intercepting the ball this season.
Greatest weakness
The boys on Fox Footy's On The Couch this year have been all over the Magpies' defensive setup and zone — or lack thereof. The modern game is all about locking the ball in your forward half, intercepting the ball and scoring from there. And the Pies aren't doing that well in 2016, with Buckley's brigade -35 on their opposition for total forward half intercepts — ranked 13th in the competition. Only Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond, Gold Coast and Essendon are ranked lower than the Pies in this stat. Also, they have a bloke called Travis Cloke — a much-maligned player on a hefty pay packet — unable to get into the senior side at the moment. It's too much cash sitting on the sidelines.
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| Scott Pendlebury is one of Collingwood's rare All-Australian contenders this season. Picture: Wayne Ludbey. Source: News Corp Australia |
All-Australian chances
Not too many this season. Again the club's ultra-consistent skipper Scott Pendlebury will be in the discussion at the halfway mark, averaging 29 disposals (ranked ninth in the competition), 120 Champion Data ranking points (second) and eight score involvements so far. Former Giant Adam Treloar, who has fitted in at the Pies with aplomb, is the other Pie who should also be in calculations, averaging a career-high 31 disposals, 19 uncontested possessions and six tackles.
How draftees/recruits have fared
If it wasn't for Patrick Dangerfield at Geelong, Treloar would probably be the recruit of the year to date. Despite his new team's poor start, Treloar couldn't have done much more to date, racking up 30 or more touches in eight of his 12 games to date. Jeremy Howe arrived at Collingwood with a preference of playing in the forward line. Injuries have forced the former Dee to defence from Round 7 onwards — and he's thrived, averaging 22 disposals, nine marks, nine intercepts and 108 ranking points from his past six games. Elsewhere, James Aish (five games) has been an early-season flop, while Ben Crocker (six) and Tom Phillips are the only draftees to be blooded to date.
Medical Room
Which Collingwood official keeps walking under a ladder? The medical room is where the Pies have been crucified this season and has undoubtedly played a part in their inconsistent performances. They've been forced to use 38 players to date — the most in the competition — due to the array of injuries they've suffered, particularly to key players. Dane Swan (leg), Jamie Elliott (back), Jackson Ramsay (knee) and Matt Scharenberg (knee) are all out for the rest of the season, while Travis Varcoe (hamstring), Marley Williams (foot), Taylor Adams (hamstring/knee), Tim Broomhead (ankle), Darcy Moore (collarbone) and Tom Langdon (ankle) have all missed stints across the opening half of the season.
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| Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley is facing the brunt of external criticism. Picture: Wayne Ludbey. Source: News Corp Australia |
From an external perspective, Buckley is situated towards the high-pressure end of the scale. Since taking them to a preliminary final in 2012, the Pies have slid down the ladder year by year — and are currently heading for another decrease in 2016. Yes the Pies have barely had any continuity about their 22-man line-up throughout the season. But footy is a win-loss industry — and a 4-8 record isn't pretty viewing. After the loss to Melbourne, Steele Sidebottom said he felt "sorry" for Buckley, claiming it was "unfair" Buckley had to bear the brunt of criticism. But if the win-loss ledge doesn't even up, the pressure might start to come for Buckley internally.
Back-half expectations
With a tough draw ahead — they play six top-eight teams in their remaining 10 matches — and finals now close to an impossibility, Collingwood fans must adjust their focus. Most importantly, the Pies must try and accumulate some continuity among their personnel. But if there are players who aren't 100 per cent, it's not worth risking them. Hopefully the likes of Phillips and Crocker continue to get games, while Brayden Sier and Rupert Wills also receive senior opportunities — only if they have earnt them, though.
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