Preview Round 9: Collingwood v Hawthorn

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 9 COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN Time & Place: Saturday May 20, 7:25pm EST MCG TV: Fox Footy 7:20pm EST Weather: Min 13 Max 19 Chance of rain 50%: < 1mm Wind: N 21kph Betting: Collingwood $1.54 Hawthorn $2.50

Collingwood is a raging favourite to end a nine-game hoodoo against Hawthorn in this clash of apparent also-rans. The 3-5 Hawks have won three of their past four games but their faint finals hopes have seemingly been extinguished after losing key trio Cyril Rioli, Ben Stratton and James Frawley to long-term injuries. The 2-6 Pies will be without important swingman Ben Reid for up to a month but are likely to regain Adam Treloar and have a golden opportunity to build on their last-kick loss to flag fancy Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium. The Pies have been competitive but inconsistent, which wasn't helped by a crammed schedule, but will now be well rested following successive seven-day breaks. A Collingwood win would be their first against Hawthorn since the nail-biting 2011 preliminary final – Mick Malthouse's second-last game as the Pies' coach.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R23, 2016, Hawthorn 17.10 (112) d Collingwood 17.9 (111) at the MCG
2. R15, 2015, Hawthorn 15.11 (101) d Collingwood 12.19 (91) at the MCG
3. R23, 2014, Hawthorn 18.13 (121) d Collingwood 8.8 (56) at the MCG
4. R14, 2014, Hawthorn 17.13 (115) d Collingwood 13.8 (86) at the MCG
5. R21, 2013, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Collingwood 12.12 (84) at the MCG 

THE SIX POINTS

1. Collingwood's 2-6 start to the season is their worst since they were 1-7 and last on the ladder after eight games in 2005. Hawthorn's 3-5 start is their worst since 2010 when they were 2-6.
2. When these teams met in round 23 last year, the Magpies had more disposals, more contested possessions, more clearances and laid more tackles but still lost by a point. Adam Treloar collected three Brownlow votes after having 36 possessions (22 contested), 10 clearances and two goals.
3. In the Hawks' favour is their record against Collingwood at the MCG, where they have won 20 games to 11. The Pies have lost four of their five MCG games so far in 2017.
4. The Magpies are one of only three teams this season yet to blood a debutant, while Hawthorn has selected just one, Teia Miles. Hawthorn has used 32 players and Collingwood 29.
5. Neither team has enjoyed the attention of the umpires this season – the Hawks are 16th with 17.3 free kicks a game while the Magpies are last with only 16.5 a game.
6. Pies' joint vice-captain Taylor Adams continues to rise in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. Just two years ago he was ranked in the 300s, but has since lifted himself to a personal-best rating of No. 68.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Jamie Elliott.
The livewire small forward has been threatening to tear a game apart for a few weeks now and he won't get a better chance against a Hawthorn side missing versatile pair Stratton (who would likely have been Elliott's direct opponent) and Frawley. In his past four games Elliott has kicked 10 goals, and now that he's back to full fitness and touch, it's just a matter of time before he explodes.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 26 points.