Preview Round 16: Collingwood v Essendon

AFL

SUMMARY

2017 AFL Round 16 COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON Time & Place: Saturday July 8, 2:10pm EST MCG TV: Fox Sports 2:00pm EST Weather: Min 7 Max 14 Chance of rain 50%: 1-5mm Wind: WNW 14kph Betting: Collingwood $2.00 Essendon $1.84

A season that had promised so much is now producing so little for these two big clubs. A 6-8 Essendon has lost four of its past five games (by an average losing margin of just 10 points), including a potentially season-killing fadeout against the Brisbane Lions last week, while 5-9 Collingwood is in danger of losing a fourth successive game for the first time in two years. If it's desperation stakes for the Bombers, then it's absolute panic stations for the Magpies, who now need to win at least seven of their last eight games to avoid a fourth straight season outside the top eight. The Bombers reigned on Anzac Day and still appear to have an edge over the Pies, who continue to blow their chances with clanger kicks and poor conversion at critical times.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

1. R5, 2017, Essendon 15.10 (100) d Collingwood 11.16 (82) at the MCG
2. R5, 2016, Collingwood 22.10 (142) d Essendon 11.7 (73) at the MCG
3. R23, 2015, Essendon 14.11 (95) d Collingwood 14.8 (92) at the MCG
4. R4, 2015, Collingwood 9.15 (69) d Essendon 6.13 (49) at the MCG
5. R17, 2014, Essendon 16.7 (103) d Collingwood 5.9 (39) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Nothing separates the sides in recent times – they are 4-4 since 2013. Essendon is aiming to defeat Collingwood twice in the same season for the first time since 2005.
2. Bombers forward Joe Daniher was the difference on Anzac Day, gathering 16 possessions, taking eight marks and kicking three goals. Teammate Zach Merrett had 33 touches while Magpie Jamie Elliott kicked three goals.
3. Collingwood has created enough opportunities this season, evidenced by the fact it is fourth in inside 50s, averaging 56.4 a game, and has won the inside 50 count 10 times. The Bombers are 14th with 49.6.
4. The Bombers have struggled at stoppages and are 17th in clearances, averaging 34.1, while the Magpies are sixth with 38.2.
5. This is the 68th meeting between the clubs at the MCG, with 34 wins to Essendon, 31 to Collingwood and two draws.
6. Pies star Jeremy Howe is the third-ranked small-medium defender in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. The high-flying former Demon is ranked No.49 overall and fourth at Collingwood.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Essendon's more experienced players.
In the disastrous loss to the Brisbane Lions, some notable final quarter stats were: Jobe Watson four touches, Dyson Heppell three, Cale Hooker three, Joe Daniher two, David Zaharakis two, Brendon Goddard one and Tom Bellchambers none. Look out, Pies.

PREDICTION: Essendon by nine points