Collingwood v Melbourne
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 3:00pm Weather: Min 11 Max 16 Chance of rain 90%: <1mm Wind: NW 29kph Betting: Collingwood $1.28 Melbourne $3.70 |
This weekend the Magpies run into one of their oldest rivals, Melbourne. The Melbourne/Collingwood rivalry reached it’s heights in the 50’s and 60’s when the two met in 5 grand finals and a number of other finals in the most successful period in the Demons history. The only Magpies premiership over the Demons, 1958, is renowned as one of the greatest upsets in Australian footballing history as the Demons failed to win four premierships in a row and match the immortal Collingwood team of 1927-1930. It was in that season that the home and away record for an AFL/VFL game was also broken when the Pies and Dees met in front of over 99,000 people at the MCG. That day was the Queen’s Birthday holiday and although the two clubs met on that day several times after it wasn’t until the 2001 season that the fixture became permanent.
So on Monday, the Queens birthday holiday, Melbourne will host Collingwood in a round 10 matchup of the 2015 AFL season. It’s the biggest day of the year for the Demons with the club perennially missing the finals although the Demons have failed to win a game on this day since 2007. There was a heart stopping draw in season 2010 but apart from that the Pies have dominated this holiday fixture. Once again Collingwood will go in as favourites for this game and rightfully so.
PREVIOUS FORM
Last week’s stunning comeback was key to Collingwood’s chances in season 2015. Not only did it move them to a 6-3 win/loss record but it also relegated one of their challengers for a spot in the final 8 to a 4-5 record. The previous three weeks hadn’t been that impressive before that amazing comeback versus the Kangaroos. The Pies were dominated by the Cats for the best part of 3 quarters and then lost a heart breaker to Richmond the following week. Even the win against the Suns, despite the large final margin has its difficulties. Then last Sunday happened and everything looks rosy but in reality this is a Collingwood team that is yet to play four quarters of quality football in one game so far this season. They may get away with inconsistency again this week against a Demons team struggling to find any predictable effort or result.
If the Magpies are inconsistent then Melbourne is on another level. They’ve shown in patches they can play very good football with wins of quality teams like the Bulldogs and Tigers. Yet in their 9 game so far they’ve also put together some of the worst performances of any AFL side so far this season, and last weekend was no different. Half way through the second term the Demons held a 24 point lead against a previously struggling Port Adelaide outfit. In the latter part of that second quarter the Power dominated though and from then on took control of the game in just about every facet. In fact from that point on Melbourne only managed 2 goals for the rest of the game as Port ran out 61 point victors. It has to be a massive concern for coach Paul Roos that this disintegration of his team on match days is happening on a regular basis now.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood are sitting pretty at 6-3 but it oh so could have been different if not for that second half comeback versus North Melbourne. As it stands though they are placed 4th on the AFL ladder and can look to improve even further this weekend against Melbourne. For once the injury list at Collingwood is shorter and less talented then most other clubs in the AFL. The likes of Ben Reid, Levi Greenwood, Clinton Young and Ben Kennedy are all close to being available for senior selection after recent setbacks. The Pies VFL side is going well too, with a plethora of AFL listed players representing them they’ve now won 4 games in a row and are giving coach Nathan Buckley and the selection committee some head aches indeed. Tom Broomhead and Kennedy were the stand outs last week in the VFL and both will almost certainly be in the squad of 25 named on Thursday night. But they’ll find it hard to break into a senior 22 that looked so good in that second half last week that it’s going to be hard to omit anyone at all. Jamie Elliott’s second half was nothing short of astounding as for the second week in a row he kicked 5 goals after the main break. Alex Fasolo, Steele Sidebottom and Alan Toovey are also back in the seniors and look as safe as houses to keep their spots. Fasolo is a strange case, as former skipper Nick Maxwell said during the week “this kid could be anything” yet only a few weeks back he was omitted for poor form. He provides much needed foot skills though and along with Elliott could form one of the most dangerous small forward pairings in the game. It’s that forward line that is still a work in progress but when it clicks the Magpies look like a top team indeed.
This Monday against the Demons there won’t be too many changes you’d assume with no injuries reported out of last week’s win. There are some sore bodies around the Westpac Centre though but the 8 day break should allow them to heal in time for this Queen’s birthday match up. Tim Broomhead almost has to come in and it may be someone like Adam Oxley who makes way. The Pies final selection will almost definitely put onto the field the strongest and fittest 22 they have possessed so far in 2015 and that’s an ominous thought indeed for the Demons.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Melbourne started this season pretty well and after 4 rounds sat with 2 wins and 2 losses. For a club tipped once again to finish in the bottom 4 on the ladder it was a promising start indeed. Since then though a mixture of a tough draw and some glaringly obvious poor performances has seen them only win one of their last five games. That win was impressive however as the Dees dominated an in form Bulldogs outfit to win by 39 points at the MCG. That’s what must be frustrating too for everyone involved with the club, that they can produce an effort like that yet around it perform well below that level. This is a huge game for the Melbourne football club though, it’s almost certain to be their biggest home attendance of the year and the Pies are still seen as many as their main rival. They will need to play a lot better though then last week if they are to even get close to the Magpies.
Melbourne’s backline and their defensive structures are holding up quite well considering the beating they’ve taken in the midfield at times. The Dees have only conceded 100 points in 4 of their 9 games so far so they can defend it seems. The three main talls down back are Lyden Dunn, Tom McDonald an Colin Garland and they are doing a respectable job so far this season. Jeremy Howe has also spent time down back this year but has probably spent just as much time forward. The Demons actually rebound the ball out of their defensive zone pretty well too as they are currently ranked 6th for rebound 50’s. There’s always room for improvement but the Melbourne backline by far isn’t a problem.
The Melbourne midfield is struggling, especially when it comes to clearances. They rank 17th for centre clearances and 14th for total clearances. That is a little bit of a shock when you have the likes of Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince, Nathan Jones, Daniel Cross and Aaron Vandenberg. Yes the supporting cast in that central core is still young and developing but to be so down the list when it comes to clearances has to be a concern for them. If there’s one area that the Dees may be able to take advantage of it’s in the ruck though with Melbourne ranked marginally higher then the Pies for hitouts per week. Just like the Pies they have developing young rucks with Gawn and Spencer assisting the experienced Mark Jamar. If the Demons are to pressure the Pies at all they will have to win more clearances then they have been so far this season.
The Demons forward line is the most under developed part of the ground at the moment with Jesse Hogan showing that more then anyone else. Hogan is the buzz player at Melbourne at the moment and for a second year player is doing well averaging 2 goals a game. The problem is only new recruit Jeff Garlett is matching that output and only one more player after that, Cameron Pederson, is averaging more then a goal a game. Yes they’ve had injuries with ex Magpie Chris Dawes missing games but the forward sector for the Demons is an area that needs work. They run into a Pies backline that has looked vulnerable the last 4 weeks with some big scores in short patches kicked against them. With the midfield struggling this forward line will need to find a way to be very efficient or risk making the task near on impossible for Melbourne.
On their day this Demons outfit has shown it can match it with teams around Collingwood’s level of talent but like the Pies inconsistency has been a massive problem. Apart from that Bulldogs win the last 5 weeks have been quite poor with a couple of absolute shockers thrown in. The Dees may not have won this game since 2007 but they usually play above their talent level on this day so they may make a match of this after all.
TIP
With a Monday fixture it’s always harder to guess at what the final line-ups will be but with only a handful of players injured at each club it makes the task easier. The Demons will be hoping that Chris Dawes and Dom Tyson pass fitness tests to strengthen a team that has struggled in recent weeks. They are back at the MCG though where they undoubtedly play their best football but Collingwood would say the same thing.
There has been a spanner thrown in the works though with Magpies coach Nathan Buckley having hamstring surgery on Wednesday and he’s actually in doubt for Monday’s game. Even without Buckley though the manner in which the Pies dismantled a very good side in North Melbourne last week in that second half shows that they are the better of these two sides and should notch up a rather comfortable victory here.
MAGPIES BY 32 POINTS.
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