Round 13
Collingwood v Fremantle Thurday June 25, 8:10pm Subiaco Oval, Perth 7mate / Fox Footy 8:00pm Weather: Min 6 Max 19 Chance of rain 5%: < 1mm Wind: NW 13kph Betting: Collingwood $4.25 Fremantle $1.22 |
On Thursday night the Dockers will look to regain their ominous form as they welcome Collingwood to Subiaco Oval. The Pies themselves have started the season above expectations and sit just a few spots below Fremantle on the AFL ladder with a 8-3 win/loss record. Both clubs are coming off a much welcome bye which should see a high energy and high pressure game played. The Magpies have this unwanted title of “not having beaten anyone” yet despite notching up 8 wins in the first half of the season. That title would disappear for good if the travelling side can cause an upset on prime time TV this Thursday.
RECENT FORM
Before the bye the Magpies strung together 4 very impressive wins over the Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Melbourne and the GWS Giants. It got them to an 8-3 record at the half way mark and has set them up for a real shot at the finals this season. The last win over GWS may well have been the best four quarter effort from the Pies this season as they systematically broke down a previously in form Giants outfit to win by 42 points. Ex Giant Taylor Adams returned from injury to play his best game for the Pies as did Tim Broomhead who earned a rising star nomination for his performance. Up forward Travis Cloke continued his strong recent form with a 5 goal haul to move well up the leader board for the Coleman medal. The Pies are ahead of expectations and really couldn’t have envisaged being in a better position then this at the half way point of the season.
Fremantle were flying after 9 games after getting some top notch wins including a vital way win against the Crows in Adelaide. The final 2 games before the bye though seemed to show a side that was looking for the break. The unexpected loss at Subiaco Oval to Richmond was followed by that very lacklustre effort against the struggling Suns. The shining light is though that the Dockers have banked 10 wins so far this season, and with only Sydney and the Eagles winning consistently they are still bang on target for a top 4 finish. Injuries have weakened the Fremantle backline though with Johnson, Dawson and Silvagni all with long term injuries. Fremantle have only dropped the one game at home all season though and they will be looking to regain their home ground advantage this week.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
With a weekend off to reflect on their season so far the Magpies would be feeling good. Sitting at 8-3 with the fifth youngest list in the AFL is some achievement in itself, even if the job is only half done. As coach Nathan Buckley said after the win over the Giants this side has improved both on and off the field to a point where their goals may need to be re-assessed. The improvement is there for all to see. Marley Williams, Jack Crisp, Nathan Brown, Jamie Elliott, Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams and Jack Frost are all having career best seasons. Then there’s the youngsters that are yet to cement a spot in the senior side but show plenty of potential. The Magpies lead the league in contested possessions and marks inside forward 50, two absolutely crucial stats with the way football is played today. They aren’t there yet though, even the most ardent Pies fan knows they have to improve plenty if they are to challenge for a premiership again in the near future. The signs of improvement are strong though and the only way is up from here really.
This week senior coach Nathan Buckley and his selection committee will have a few tough decisions on their hands. Apart from young ruckman Brodie Grundy and the usual suspects that have long term injuries the Pies list is as healthy as it’s been in a long time. Jarryd Blair and Levi Greenwood will push their case for selection while Ben Reid is almost ready to go as well. Greenwood, the Pies biggest off season recruit broke his ankle in the final pre season game but dominated in the half he played in the VFL before the bye. He would add much needed experience in a midfield that at times has allowed other teams to get on top in dominating patches. The Magpies can select a side now based on the opposition and venue and with a fast track in Perth predicted on a big ground, pace may be the weapon that the Pies need more then anything else. Ultimately if Collingwood are to win this game it will be by exploiting Fremantle’s injury concerns down back, so Cloke, Elliott and White will have to perform for the Magpies to cause an upset this week.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Fremantle are gunning for a premiership, they have to be with the careers of some of their star players closer to the end then the beginning. They are in contention this season of that there is little doubt and despite the set back against the Tigers they still sit on top of the ladder. Under Ross Lyon they play a defensive brand of football but at times this season have looked more attacking then in seasons’ past. They have conceded less points then any other team in the AFL but only sit 9th for average points scored so far this year. They know how to win games though and the Dockers would be expecting to win against the Pies on Thursday.
The Fremantle backline has been hit hard by injury. Losing Michael Johnson, Zac Dawson and Alex Silvagni has meant senior coach Ross Lyon has had to re-jig his defensive setup. Into the backline has come youngsters Jack Hannath and Alex Pearce and while they don’t have the experience of Johnson or Dawson they are expected to hold down the fort until those players return. This week they come up against a Magpies forward line with two very dangerous scoring options in Cloke and Elliott. McPharlin surely will get Cloke while Lee Spurr is the most likely candidate for Elliott. Another area that the Dockers are struggling in down back is rebounds out of their defensive 50. They rank 16th in the league and with transition football so important in today’s game it’s an area they have to improve upon.
The area of complete strength for the Dockers is their midfield. They average the second most clearances in the league and are ranked 6th for contested possessions. It’s easy to see why they rack up so many clearances too. Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale and Michael Barlow are up there with the best contested ball winners in the AFL and when you add the man mountain that is Aaron Sandilands in the ruck it’s a formidable foursome indeed. Thanks to Sandilands Fremantle average 7 more hitouts then any other team in the AFL and that’s a huge advantage to have in any game. This week they come up against a Magpies midfield that is ranked 1 for contested possessions but has struggled at the clearances at times in 2015. This is likely where the game will be won, if either team can gain dominance in the midfield they should come out on top on the scoreboard.
The Fremantle forward line has long been a point of discussion. Most experts state that the Dockers need a dominant tall forward if they are to win a premiership. They are yet to find that forward though and are still going with a familiar set-up this season. Long time club stalwart Matthew Pavlich is still leading the way and is the only Dockers player to kick over 20 goals so far this season. Michael Walters is also in decent form with 18 goals so far this year but then the figures drop off significantly. The usually dangerous Hayden Ballantyne is having a poor year averaging under a goal a game with star midfielder Nathan Fyfe third on the goal tally with 13. Youngster Matt Taberner has shown plenty of promise with 11 goals in 8 games this season and is surely someone they will persist with. The Dockers forward comes up against a Pies backline that fell away just a little bit in the 4-5 weeks before the bye. Fremantle is likely to have more forward 50 entries then the Magpies and they will need it too with the inconsistency of their attacking group at the moment.
This game will suit Fremantle perfectly, they love a hard fought, tight in game where the contested ball and clearances are the key to victory. At selection they will look to bring Chris Mayne back and might consider the likes of De Boer, Duffield and Clarke also to cover the Magpies strengths. If Fremantle want to be considered a genuine premiership threat this the type of game they should win.
TIP
Fremantle go into this game as heavy favourites and rightfully so. Apart from that most recent slip up against the Tigers they have been impossible to get near at home. The young Magpies like a challenge but with a few of their best 22 still not 100% right to go it will be a hard task indeed for them to get up. However it seems as if the Pies match up quite well with the Dockers with the midfield the area that will ultimately decide the game.
If Collingwood can get on top in the middle of the ground and dominate contested possessions like it has so far this season they may be able to cause an upset. The real area where Collingwood can exploit the Dockers is in the forward line though with a weakened Fremantle backline allowing the Pies forwards to get on top. With that in mind I believe Collingwood can pull off a remarkable upset and improve to 9-3 for the season.
MAGPIES BY 7 POINTS.
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