Collingwood v Melbourne
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 3:00pm Weather: Min 11 Max 17 Chance of rain 60%: 1-5mm Wind: NW 31kph Betting: Collingwood $1.28 Melbourne $3.70 |
Collingwood is fresh from a memorable victory against North Melbourne, which saw the Pies kick 13 goals to four in the second half and overcome a 39-point half-time deficit. It was an amazing result, and one that will give the side a lot of confidence.
But the Magpies are really struggling to put in four-quarter performances, which would be a concern for coach Nathan Buckley. Undoubtedly the focus will be on a faster start on Monday.
Collingwood faces a tricky assignment this week against Melbourne. Melbourne does not have a fantastic track record on Queen’s Birthday, but typically comes out with a lot of intensity given the fact this is historically the biggest home and away fixture it gets to play in (in recent years, at least).
The Demons have been very unpredictable all year, capable of putting together very solid performances, or getting very easily beaten. It is important for Melbourne to start reducing the difference between its best and worst performances, and will be looking forward to bouncing back from a disappointing loss against Port Adelaide last week.
Collingwood is a good opponent for Melbourne to test itself against considering the Magpies are not an established top four side of the competition, but are in very good form. It will show how much Melbourne has improved, or whether the gap is still very large.
On the other hand, this is a game Collingwood simply must win. It took a big scalp in North Melbourne last week, but it counts for little should Collingwood lose to a lower ranked opponent this week.
The Magpies have the opportunity to move to seven wins and three losses, which will keep them in fourth spot on the ladder. This leaves Collingwood in a very similar position to which it was last year in terms of wins and losses.
Buckley was right earlier in the week when he stated ‘the proof will be in the pudding’ in regards to whether the Magpies can sustain their momentum this season.
But the signs are positive considering the injury list is smaller and the young players have another season’s experience behind them.
Recent History
Whilst Melbourne has often been competitive on Queen’s Birthday, it has not beaten Collingwood since 2007 on this day (despite a draw in 2010). In fact, Collingwood has won nine of the past ten meetings between these sides.
When these sides last met on the Queen’s Birthday last year, Collingwood held Melbourne to only three goals for the game. Despite this, Bernie Vince was awarded the three Brownlow votes for his 28 disposals, one goal and eight tackles. Scott Pendlebury polled two votes for the Magpies with 26 disposals and a goal, whilst Clinton Young polled the one vote with 26 disposals and 13 marks.
Focus on Collingwood
It just seemed as if the switch was flicked in the second half last week and everything just fell into place. The forward line looked as dangerous as it has it some time, with Jamie Elliott, Jarryd Blair, Dane Swan, Alex Fasolo, Jesse White and Travis Cloke all hitting the scoreboard. All of a sudden, the forward line is looking very dangerous and the midfield is chipping in with goals as well.
Buckley will be conscious of the terrible first half though. The Magpies were still competitive around the football, but were trailing behind their opponents and allowing easy ball movement. Dane Swan said earlier this week that Collingwood is an intensity based side, and the first half last week proves that even a one per cent drop off with intensity can result in a massive margin to counter.
The same has happened this year against both Geelong and Adelaide where the Magpies have had to chase big margins, which proved a mountain too high to climb.
On the other hand, when the Magpies are playing at their peak, like they did in the second half last week, the results can be extremely positive. North Melbourne is a good side, but was left stunned by the avalanche of Collingwood goals. This sort of football can beat anyone and is very exciting to watch.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Alex Fasolo – Fasolo has been made to really earn his spot, and the results in the last two weeks have been terrific. While he isn’t getting an enormous amount of the football, he is proving very damaging with it, booting two goals and having four goal assists. Importantly though, it is his defensive efforts that are standing out. They were good in the first half as well when the Magpies were getting beaten. It will be a real challenge for Fasolo to maintain this level of intensity on a consistent basis, but I feel it is the bare minimum the side needs from him as his role is vital.
Jesse White – It is the second week in a row I discuss White because I was very impressed with him on the weekend. Again, he didn’t have an enormous amount of the ball and only kicked one goal, but it was his contests in difficult conditions that stood out. He took six very strong marks which is highlighting his improving contested marking. Importantly he kicked a crucial goal in the second quarter from a tight angle which kept Collingwood alive. I felt at that stage of the game that North Melbourne was one goal away from blowing the game wide open, but White’s goal gave the Magpies belief. Buckley would be very happy to get this level of output from White on a consistent basis.
Jack Crisp – The usual suspects like Swan, Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom were again very good last week, but it is Crisp who really impressed me. I have written about him on multiple occasions this year, but he continues to surprise with his rapid rate of improvement. The goal he kicked on the run last week is becoming a trademark, and his contested footy work has also been great. He really is a complete midfielder given his endurance and pace alongside his inside ability and his capacity to tag. It gives his coach so many weapons as Crisp can be used offensively, defensively or as an inside midfielder.
Focus on Melbourne
Melbourne has definitely improved this year and has challenged some decent sides. Three wins to this point of the year is about on par with what the football public’s expectations were, but there is genuinely a better structure in place, as well as some better ball movement. Nonetheless, the Demons have been well and truly beaten by some of the better teams, so it will be interesting to see how they go against the Magpies who currently sit in fourth place.
As has been the case in recent years, the Demons have struggled with uncontested possession, ranking last in the competition for this stat. This isn’t unexpected as Melbourne has built a midfield around tough in and unders and lacks enough outside ball carriers to really challenge the better sides. There has definitely been an improvement in this area though.
There is a lot to work with though for the Melbourne coaching team as there is a very solid spine developing, as well as a much deeper midfield. Tom McDonald has shone as a key defender, while the likes of Jesse Hogan, Chris Dawes, Cam Pederson and Jeff Garlett provide a dangerous forward line. With guys like Tyson, Daniel Cross, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Aaron Vandenberg and Angus Brayshaw, there is real hardness around the ball. There just isn’t enough outside pace as yet, but that should come in time.
Player Focus – Melbourne
Heritier Lumumba – It is hard not to write about the former Collingwood premiership star as it is the first time he will face his former side. Lumumba has posted an average of 15 disposals a game and only two goals for the year. I would not be surprised, though, to see Collingwood run Jack Crisp on Lumumba this week as he is one of the few midfielders in the Melbourne team that can really break a line and open the game up. That means if Lumumba is kept quiet, then the Demons may struggle to penetrate this solid Collingwood defence.
Jesse Hogan – Melbourne fans were forced to wait a long time to get to see this future champion, but the wait was well and truly worth it as Hogan has really burst onto the scene this year. He won last week’s Rising Star nomination and already leads the competition for contested marks to go with his 16 goals. He has so much of Jonathan Brown about him in the way he absolutely loves the contest and hits packs with no fear. He is going to be a real challenge for Nathan Brown and Jack Frost who have had their work cut out against the real monsters of the competition this year. Although Hogan is still very raw, he is already a monster and has challenged the good defenders all year.
Bernie Vince – Vince has made a name for himself as a very tight tagger this year and will undoubtedly get a big job this week, potentially on Pendlebury or Sidebottom. The key to Vince’s game is his ability to push forward and kick goals. He did a very good job on Marcus Bontempelli two weeks ago, limiting him to a handful of possessions while picking up 26 disposals of his own and kicking two vital goals. He also took the scalp of Patrick Dangerfield earlier in the year as well. Whoever matches up with Vince needs to be prepared for a really difficult day, and has to remain accountable going the other way. Vince polled the three Brownlow votes when these sides last met and loves the big occasion.
The Wrap-Up
While the Pies will go in as overwhelming favourites, it is a game that shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Collingwood will be hoping to carry its form from the second half last week into Monday’s match, while Melbourne should be pretty fired up after a disappointing showing in Alice Springs last week.
Collingwood played a difficult game on Sunday, and Melbourne had to travel to Alice Springs, but fatigue should not be an issue given the extra day’s recovery. Expect two relatively full strength sides and a pretty hot opening.
Both sides have been inconsistent and struggled to put together four-quarter performances. That said, Collingwood’s pressure has been at a good level all year, and it will be a real challenge for Melbourne to sustain this all match.
The Magpies are really building a well-rounded team, with a good mix of inside and outside players, a dangerous forward line and solid defensive unit. I struggle to see Melbourne containing this and also kicking a big enough score to win. I think the Demons will be competitive but ultimately won’t have the tools to match the Pies over four quarters.
Collingwood by 30 points.
No comments :
Post a Comment