Collingwood v GWS
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 1:00pm Weather: Min 8 Max 16 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: SE 14kph Betting: Collingwood $1.62 GWS $2.30 |
Collingwood has its bye next week in round 12, while GWS will enjoy its break the following weekend.
It is a crucial match as well considering both sides currently sit at 7-3. Collingwood has clawed itself into the top four, while GWS is in fifth place and ready to jump into the top four if it can win on Sunday.
For the Magpies, the first half of the year has been extremely successful.
Not many experts would have put Collingwood in the top eight, let alone the top four, so the strong start to the year has come as a surprise for many.
The critics have been quick to point out that Collingwood has enjoyed a very easy draw to start the year, but it has also had wins over North Melbourne and Essendon who were finalists in 2014.
Nonetheless, it is true that Collingwood is yet to have a victory against any team currently in the top eight.
The challenge now comes in the next five rounds, with GWS, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and West Coast on the horizon. It is a horror fixture, but it will show where Collingwood stands.
It makes the result this week even more crucial considering the Magpies will likely go into the four games that follow as underdogs (in public opinion).
Realistically, if Collingwood can get through the next five games with two or three wins, it is well placed to make a charge to finals. That is why I have been repetitively stating over the last few weeks that Collingwood needed to bank its wins early.
Turning the focus onto the Giants, and few would have expected this young side to have developed as quickly as it has. Everyone knows that the list is stockpiled with high draft picks, yet the real genius in the recruiting has been the ability to off-load high profile youngsters to recruit experienced bodies.
The presence of Ryan Griffen, Heath Shaw, Shane Mumford and Joel Patfull has really strengthened the side, which is why it is now a genuine finals contender in only its fourth season in the competition.
The scary part is that there are still a number of first round draft picks either playing in the NEAFL or injured. These players will either come into the side and make it even stronger. The depth in the list is quite astonishing, which was evident in an amazing 192 point thrashing of Brisbane in the NEAFL last round.
The Giants are very well placed to make a charge to the finals. They have enough winnable games in the run home to at least finish in the bottom half of the eight. There are some challenges that lie ahead as well, so whether the Giants can genuinely threaten for a top eight position is yet to be seen.
There will also be question marks over whether the younger players will maintain this form as the season develops.
Whichever way you look at it, the Giants have an incredibly bright future ahead and will be in the mix for a finals berth this year unless significant injuries strike.
At the Selection Table
Both sides had strong wins in round 11, but also have major decisions to make at the selection table given the raft of players demanding selection.
For Collingwood, minor injuries to Taylor Adams (toe) and Jarrod Witts (soreness) will be tested and both look likely to be fit for selection. Adams will be crucial given the Magpies were beaten in the contest last week, and face a very strong midfield this week. But he may be given the extended break to fully recover from his toe injury that has plagued him since round two. Witts will also come into calculations as Collingwood determines the best way to counter the dominant Mumford.
Clinton Young and Ben Reid continue to work back to full fitness in the VFL, where they are likely to remain this week. Darcy Moore had a successful return to VFL level last week, while Levi Greenwood will return to the VFL side this week in the hope he can push for senior selection after the bye.
Jonathon Marsh, Sam Dwyer and Patrick Karnezis will again put their hands up for senior selection after solid performances at VFL level last week. Brayden Maynard was named an AFL emergency last week and was rested for large portions of the VFL game, so he may also come into consideration. I wouldn’t expect too many changes however considering Collingwood has won three games on the trot and there were no fresh injuries from the weekend.
Turning the focus onto GWS, and there are a number of players demanding selection following a 192 point thumping of Brisbane in the NEAFL last week. Rhys Palmer, in particular, has successfully returned from a shoulder injury and had 28 possessions, whilst Jack Steele and Paul Ahern were dominant. Rory Lobb also booted seven goals and Dylan Addison booted five. Jarrod Pickett and Jed Lamb were also dominant with four and three goals respectively.
With no real injury concerns from last round, and a relatively healthy injury list, I wouldn’t expect mass changes from Leon Cameron ahead of this round. That said, he would be keen to continue to inject young talent into this side as there is just an embarrassment of riches for him to choose from.
Recent History
These sides last met in round 22 last season, in what could best be described as a battle of last man standing. The injury lists were enormous, and both sides suffered further injuries as the match wore on.
In the end, it was Collingwood who enjoyed an inspiring victory, somewhat against the odds considering there were no rotations left in the last quarter. Scott Pendlebury was the difference with 28 disposals which was enough to earn him the three votes. Toby Greene was the leading disposal getter with 42, which earned him the two votes, and Josh Thomas was perhaps the game-breaker with 3 goals and 29 disposals.
Focus on Collingwood
While the Magpies had a solid victory against a fiery Melbourne side last weekend, Buckley was quick to point out in his press conference that the team did not win the way it wanted to. Collingwood was out-hunted around the ball by a hungry Demon midfield, and was forced on numerous occasions to drop a loose man behind the ball. The move of Adam Oxley into defence was the difference, but it is unlikely Collingwood will be afforded this luxury in the future as opposition coaches begin realising this is the Plan B.
But it was good to see Collingwood win in an unconventional way. Good sides find ways to win, even when they are not playing their best footy. This is what Collingwood did last week. The trend of falling away throughout large periods of matches has continued though, with Melbourne booting six unanswered goals in the second quarter to storm back into the match. It is the fifth week in a row Collingwood has totally switched off for large periods of a game. This has to stop in the next five rounds as the good sides will not allow Collingwood back into the game.
Collingwood also needs to sharpen its contested work this week. The absence of Adams was telling last week as the Magpies lacked a real genuine in and under player to match the nuggetty Melbourne midfielders. GWS also possesses a large array of inside midfielders, but an even better mix of outside ball-users. The Magpies can’t afford to be beaten around the contests again.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Travis Cloke – Cloke was awarded best on field honours last week for his dominant seven-goal performance. Amazingly, Cloke did not miss a shot on goal, which is just reward for the hard work he has been putting into his goal kicking. I have felt this game has been coming for a while, as Cloke has been doing a lot of unheralded work up the ground, and also drawing opponents away from Jesse White and Jamie Elliott. If Cloke can maintain this form, the Magpies can definitely contend against the better sides in the next few weeks. He doesn’t necessarily need to boot huge bags of goals, but his confidence is up which is translating into strong tackling, strong marking and also players like Elliott and Jarryd Blair enjoying plenty of crumbs.
Adam Oxley – The Ox was unlucky not to receive the Neale Daniher Medal last week as his work across half back turned the tide. Oxley had 30 disposals and 14 marks (eight of which were intercept marks). He was basically a brick wall across half back and the Demons had no answer. It is doubtful that coaches are going to continue to allow Oxley this much freedom, but if he does draw an opponent then it does free up someone else, or forces opposition forward lines to become crowded. It has been a terrific season for Oxley, who has played all 10 games and looks to have cemented his spot for the time being.
Jack Frost – Often unheralded for his work, Frost was terrific last week against the red hot Jesse Hogan. Buckley could have shied away from playing Frost on power forwards after he was beaten by Tom Hawkins. But Buckley has stood by his commitment to play Frost on the best opposition forward. The beauty of Frost is his ability to leave his man and help out. It gives players like Nathan Brown and Tom Langdon the freedom to peel off their men in the knowledge Frost will cover if required. He is still on the rookie list, but has now become a core component of the backline.
Focus on GWS
The Giants have declared this game the biggest in their short history. If they win this week, it will almost guarantee them a finals position given there are enough winnable games on the way home to claw four or five more victories. It will also be played in front of one of the biggest crowds they have seen, and against a team in the top four.
We have all known that the Giants midfield was coming. Over time, there has been a criticism that it possesses too many similar inside type on ballers without a lot of pace. That has completely changed this year, particularly with a fit Griffen and Callan Ward, plus youngsters like Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield and Devon Smith add that outside speed and polish. We’ve also wondered where the goals were going to come from given Tom Boyd left the club and Jonathon Patton was injured. Cam McCarthy has stepped up and filled this void, and has been the perfect partner for Jeremy Cameron.
The key to the Giants’ form this year has been the quick ball-movement. In order to beat GWS, the Magpies will need to put a lot of pressure on the ball-carrier, win the contested footy and stifle their run and carry. The Giants are still very young in both their defensive and forward posts, but also extremely talented. Collingwood has the edge in experience in this regards, but if the likes of Cameron and McCarthy get a few early opportunities then they can run rampant.
Player Focus – Greater Western Sydney
Heath Shaw – The former Magpie premiership player has gone about his business quietly over in Western Sydney, but has become a real spiritual leader of the club. He stepped into an undermanned backline, and has held it together. The Giants have improved defensively this year, and Heath has a lot to do with that. He will enjoy being back playing in front of his old MCG crowd.
Shane Mumford – After getting well beaten by Will Minson in round nine, Mumford replied furiously last week with a whopping 51 hitouts and eight bruising tackles. The Magpies may recall Witts to help deal with Mumford, but he will be a handful for both Witts and Brodie Grundy who are young and will need to dig deep to find strength in most contests. Mumford is an absolute bull, and he makes his midfielders walk taller around him. If he is allowed to give the likes of Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar, Ward, Griffen and Greene first use, then the Magpies will be on the back foot all day. Mumford is one of a handful of ruckmen really staking the claim for the All-Australian position, so it is a massive test for the young Magpies rucks this week. They will need to take a leaf out of Minson’s book and run hard offensively.
Dylan Shiel – In many regards, Shiel has become the number one midfielder for the Giants this year. He averages 29 disposals a game (which is higher than Ward, Treloar and Griffen). He is also perhaps the most damaging with the ball, with a beautiful mix of inside and outside to his game. With Griffen taking the number one tag, Shiel has enjoyed freedom. As time goes on though, I think we’ll see sides begin tagging Shiel as their priority. The only thing missing from his game has been the ability to kick goals, with only four to his name this year. If he adds this component, then he becomes the complete midfielder.
The Wrap Up
The forecast is for a relatively dry weekend, so weather should not be a factor.
It will be interesting to see how Greater Western Sydney handles the occasion. The Giants are building this game up as a mini-final, and the younger players have not had to play in such crucial matches before. Whether they can stand up to the test will shape a lot of perceptions of this side as a genuine contender in 2015.
The winner will go to 8-3, while the loser drops out of the top four and will be in the main pack again. Both sides have challenges ahead, but Collingwood in particular has a tough month to contend with. The Magpies simply need to win this one to maintain the gap. With a bye the week after, Collingwood must throw everything at this game in the knowledge there will be a fortnight to recover for the big test of Fremantle at Domain Stadium.
The Giants have only ever won once at the MCG, but this win did come in their last match at this venue against Melbourne. This should be an absolute cracker between two young sides who are really building towards big things.
Pies by 15 points.
No comments :
Post a Comment