Round 20 COLLINGWOOD v RICHMOND Time, Place, TV: Friday August 5, 7:50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 5 Max 14 Chance of rain 20%: <1mm Wind: W 10kph Betting: Collingwood $1.48 Richmond $2.65 |
There's still four games to be played though, and on Friday night at the MCG the two will meet for the second time this season. The first game, way back in round 2, produced one of the finishes of the season when the Pies came from 3 goals down late on to win. Brodie Grundy snapped a goal out of the pack to send the Magpies fans into raptures, and provide Richmond the first of many losses in 2016. Since they both teams have meandered their way through the season with only a handful of impressive performances between them. The Pies are coming off one of those such outings, after an upset win over the finals bound West Coast Eagles last week. Richmond on the same Saturday put in one of the worst efforts of any team this season when they managed only 3 goals in an 88 point drubbing against the Giants. The Tigers come into this game in the midst of a crisis, while the Pies look to be ending their season strongly.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Leading into this game against Richmond there may be a few changes with Moore an almost definite out. The Pies VFL side won an amazing 9th game in a row last week, and there's plenty pushing for selection from that team. Also a hope to return from injury are Alex Fasolo and Jarryd Blair who missed the win over the Eagles. What has becoming very obvious though with this Collingwood team is that the effort is now consistent from week to week. There are many theories about why it's taken so long to find that consistency of effort, but it's there for all to see now and should see them take care of a struggling Tigers outfit.
RICHMOND PREVIEW
It's hard to find an area of strength at the moment for the Tigers but their midfield is still performing okay under the circumstances. In the ruck Shaun Hampson is having a career best year and has relegated Ivan Maric to the VFL for most of this season. In fact the Tigers rank 3rd for average hitouts this season, which is at least one positive. It hasn't helped Richmond in the clearances though, with the Tigers currently ranked 12th, although that is a few spots higher than the Pies midfield (16th). The problem seems to be depth for Richmond with a massive reliance on 5 players. Cotchin, Martin, Miles, Grigg and Edwards all average over 4 clearances a game but there's a massive drop off after that to the next player. The Pies are coming off a smashing of the Eagles in the middle, with massive advantages in clearances and contested possessions. The Tigers will need to lift to match the Pies this week based on recent form.
The Richmond forward line should be an advantage for the Tigers but they simply don't get it in there enough. The Tigers rank 17th for inside 50's meaning that Jack Riewoldt's return of 41 goals is impressive given he's had so few opportunities. Sam Llyod has had a good season up forward also, supporting Jack but after that it drops off. Tyrone Vickery is always a source of frustration and criticism and there's very few reliable options from then on. Richmond also get very little goal support from their midfield with Shane Edwards leading the way from the middle with 13 goals. They run into a Pies defense that is gaining in confidence with every passing week. With Ben Reid and Nathan Brown back fit, the youngsters in the Magpies defense are feeding off their experience and it's working well. Richmond will have to find a way to increase it's inside 50 entries or they simply can't win this game.
One man comes to mind whenever you talk about Richmond's defense and that is Alex Rance. The Tigers full back is likely to be named in the All Australian side yet again despite his team conceding the fourth most points in the AFL. Even last week in the huge loss to GWS Rance was given as many coaches votes as any other player on the ground (8 votes). The problem is once again depth. He has so little support down back that is reliable at senior level. Grimes, Astbury, Ellis, Short, Hunt, Deledio, Lambert and Conca all spend time down back but it hasn't been helping Rance too much. The positive for Richmond is they are likely to face a very undermanned Pies forward line this week. With no Moore, Elliott and Swan the Magpies forward line isn't functioning that well itself. Rance is likely to take Travis Cloke out of the game almost entirely which will leave the goal scoring to the likes of Blair, White, Cox and the supporting cast from the midfield. This is the area Richmond can dominate in to give them a chance of the win.
It's a big week for the Tigers. Home game at the MCG versus another big Melbourne club coming off the back of two unacceptable results. The pressure has been on all week at Tigerland and teams usually respond in two ways after such a bashing from the press. They either fire up and perform above expectations, or continue on with their slump as the real problems simply can't be overcome. We should know early on during Friday night's game which is going to occur, and if it's the latter it really might get ugly in the stands. At selection they will be hoping Shane Edwards and Ben Griffiths are fit to return while Andrew Moore should get a promotion after playing really well in the VFL of late. It will be interesting to see how this Richmond group respond.
TIP
With the state of the two teams going into Friday night this may not be the most attractive game of football played this year. In fact the first matchup between the two was pretty ordinary and was only saved by a stunning finish. The outcome of this game depends more on which version of the Richmond football club turns up then anything else. If it's the Richmond that won 5 out of 6 games in the middle of the season then it should win. But if it's the Richmond who has failed to fight games out in recent weeks it will lose. The Magpies are definitely in the better form of the two but it could be argued that they are missing more quality players through injury than what the Tigers are.
There's massive question marks over whether Fasolo or Moore get up for this game also, but even without them Collingwood has the superior midfield and should be able to dominate through there. If the Pies can take control of the middle they should be able to record their 9th win of 2016 and continue Richmond's misery.
MAGPIES BY 19 POINTS
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