Grand Final Preview: Collingwood And West Coast Live The Dream - The Age

The Age - Jon Pierik

2018 AFL Grand Final COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST Time & Place: Saturday September 29, 2:30pm EST MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy Weather: Min 8 Max 15 Chance of rain 80%: 1-5mm Wind: SW 17kph Betting: Collingwood $1.67 West Coast $2.25

Well, well, who would have thought this? Having finished 13th last season and survived a major club review, with coach Nathan Buckley barely hanging on to his job, Collingwood had been expected to rebound – but not to the extent they are eying their 16th premiership. This has been stunning.
Where players had conceded they were a defensive mess last season, the Pies have emerged with not only a more-than-capable back six but have adopted Richmond’s blueprint and mastered the pressure game, riding this into the grand final. Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom had wondered whether they would ever get back to the final Saturday of September but, seven years after their last appearance, they are living the dream.

Last time: Adam Treloar in the foreground as West Coast celebrate. Photo: AAP

So, too, are the West Coast Eagles, fresh from enjoying two home finals, the second a thumping victory over Melbourne. The Eagles had been expected to take a step back this season, the culmination of a four-year run under Adam Simpson, featuring the losing grand final of 2015, prompting a rethink and concession the playing list needed tinkering with. Eight players were handed a debut. Perhaps they should have that thought every season, for this side – even without the suspended Andrew Gaff – finished second and is primed to deliver the club’s fourth flag.

History Lesson
This will be the first time the two clubs have met in a grand final, having clashed seven times previously through September, including a fortnight ago when the Eagles won for the second time this season. On that evening, they prevailed by 16 points in a qualifying final in Perth, having enjoyed a 35-point win at the MCG in round 17.
In the qualifying final, the Pies had led by 10 points at the final change, ensuring they head into this rematch with confidence.
That they held the deep Eagles’ forward line to a modest 12 goals was also a positive. Where Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling had combined for six goals in round 17, they were held to a more manageable four come September.
Steele Sidebottom, the player of the finals to date, Tom Phillips and Taylor Adams found plenty of the ball in Perth, while Adam Treloar is far different proposition now than then, for he had just returned from serious hamstring injuries to each leg. Jordan De Goey had four goals in round 17 (the Pies had only three goal kickers) but managed only two in the final. Cox was goalless.

X-Factor
For Collingwood, it surely has to be Mason Cox, the true American Pie.
He was goalless and held to only five disposals by the Eagles a fortnight ago, and failed to have much of an impact against Greater Western Sydney a week later, with 11 touches while again being goalless, sparking debate as to whether he should retain his spot.

Back in July: Taylor Adams and Andrew Gaff battle it out. Photo: AAP

He was a match winner against the Tigers on Friday night with three goals and a career-high 11 marks, eight of which were contested. It did not matter whether Alex Rance or David Astbury were on him, his leading and sticky hands were almost unstoppable.
The defenders had been told to play him from in front but that was easier said than done. The Pies will need him to hit the scoreboard against the Eagles, easing the focus on De Goey.
If Kennedy and Darling do deliver, the Eagles will still need more avenues to goal. Veteran half-forward Mark LeCras, in perhaps his last game, can be that man. He was influential through the middle against the Demons, has more than 30 goals for the season, and is reliable either from a set shot or when opportunity arises.

Tactics
As Tigers coach Damien Hardwick said, the Magpies are playing momentum footy, and that can be almost impossible to stop at this time of the year.
What they have shown is an ability to adjust. Having too often handballed and struggled to deal with the Tigers’ pressure through the home-and-away campaign, they opted to kick more on Friday night. And the results were telling. They ran in waves, tackled ferociously, had Brodie Grundy dominate in the ruck and help to win clearances and were able to create a ‘‘channel’’ for Cox to lead into.
With a one-two punch in Cox and De Goey, the Pies were able to kick long, deep balls inside attacking 50, knowing there would at least be a contest.
Expect that style to be on show against the Eagles. They also made Rance accountable, and will look to do the same with Eagles’ intercept king Jeremy McGovern.
The Eagles will look to give Darling and Kennedy space while, as a team, replicating the pressure exerted on the Demons. They may be the worst ground-ball team in the league but they destroyed the Demons in this area. Tagger Mark Hutchings could get the job on Sidebottom.

Prediction
Tough call. Can the Eagles handle the pressure better than they did against the Hawks in 2015? Twelve players from that side took on the Demons. The Magpies have the belief, a game plan that stands up and match winners.

Collingwood by 11 points