THE Grand Final is set. West Coast v Collingwood.
A rematch of the qualifying final a fortnight ago when the Eagles squeaked home in a thriller.We break down the key match-ups and potential selection headaches ahead of the big dance.
Plus, get all the Grand Final betting odds and see who the experts are tipping.
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Mason Cox (left) celebrates a goal. Jeremy McGovern (right) is an intercept marking star.
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Mason Cox v Jeremy McGovern
| 2018 AFL Grand Final COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST Time & Place: Saturday September 29, 2:30pm EST MCG TV: 7mate / Fox Footy Weather: Min 8 Max 15 Chance of rain 80%: 1-5mm Wind: SW 17kph Betting: Collingwood $1.67 West Coast $2.25 |
Josh Kennedy v Tyson Goldsack
This could well be a match-deciding duel and was a key talking point out of the qualifying final. In that game, Goldsack had the better of the contest for three quarters but Kennedy and partner in crime Jack Darling lifted in the final quarter to help get the Eagles over the line.
Steele Sidebottom v Elliot Yeo
Sidebottom’s standing in the game is growing by the week after he earnt All-Australian honours for the first time this year and has gone on to have a ripping finals series, highlighted by 41 disposals against Richmond. Yeo has had no season to scoff at though either, proving the Eagles’ most damaging midfielder for much of the year.
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| Elliot Yeo spoils Steele Sidebottom. Picture: Michael Klein |
Looks like being a headache-free week for both coaches at match committee, with any changes from their preliminary final sides highly unlikely. Magpies defender Jeremy Howe got the all clear from scans yesterday on an ankle complaint, the club confident he will be ready to go come Saturday.
ROAD TO THE GRAND FINAL
The Eagles had one trip to Brisbane in Round 23 but otherwise haven’t left Perth for six weeks, winning home finals against Collingwood (16 points) and Melbourne (66 points). The Magpies haven’t put a foot wrong since that qualifying final loss in Perth, taking care of GWS by 10 points in their semi-final and demolishing reigning premier Richmond by 39 points in their preliminary final.
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| Nathan Buckley celebrates the win with Chris Mayne. |
Magpies
“The easiest decision in the last couple of days would have been to sack the coach. The hard decision is to look within and work through as a whole club and stand side-by-side, so that it is not just a logo or a slogan.” – Collingwood president Eddie McGuire after re-signing Nathan Buckley last August.
“We still feel like there’s three wins for us to get and we didn’t get it tonight, unfortunately. But we earned the double chance and now we need to get three in a row and we start next week.” – Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley after his side’s qualifying final loss to West Coast.
“You can only ever judge decisions in retrospect, there’s been a lot of decisions that AFL clubs have made along the way – not just Collingwood but others – and I would suggest that this is a little bit different to what we’ve seen in the past.” – Nathan Buckley in 2009, upon announcement of Collingwood’s succession plan.
Eagles
“We’ve been in transition for a little bit with some of our list and how we want to work it. We’re aware of some of our flaws that we’ve got to get better at, and we’re going to work really hard over summer to get that right.” – West Coast coach Adam Simpson after a crushing 67-point semi-final loss to Greater Western Sydney last year.
“They’ve lost a lot of experienced players. They’ll take a couple of years to get themselves up and going again. I think it will be a lean season for the Eagles.” – AFL legend Robert Walls in March, after tipping West Coast to win the wooden spoon this year.
“Your heart breaks a bit. But as he said he’s not dying, or he’s not dead. He’s still the same person, it’s just unfortunate that we may have lost him for another season.” – West Coast coach Adam Simpson after losing star ruckman Nic Naitanui to an ACL in Round 17.
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| West Coast coach Adam Simpson speaks to his players. |
Qualifying Final, West Coast 12.14 (86) def Collingwood 10.10 (70) at Perth Stadium
The Eagles looked shot at the final change, trailing by 10 points and having lost defender Brad Sheppard to a hamstring in the opening term. However, they pulled off a stunning comeback thereafter, key forwards Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling standing tall as West Coast recorded a five-goal-to-one last quarter. In a frenetic, high-paced game, Brodie Grundy dominated the hit-outs for the Pies but they won the clearances only slightly 37-36, while both teams finished with 51 inside-50s.
HISTORY SAYS…
Collingwood v West Coast
- All-time games: 51 (Collingwood 24, West Coast 26, Draw 1)
- Past 10 games: Collingwood 5, West Coast 5
- Highest margin: 100 point Collingwood win (Round 10, 2008)
- Biggest crowd: 67,502 (Qualifying Final 2011, MCG)
- Finals games played: 7 (Collingwood 4, West Coast 2, Draw 1)
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| Adam Treloar gets away from Dom Sheed. |
- Collingwood $1.60 v West Coast $2.40
- Collingwood –8.5 points: $1.90
- West Coast +8.5 points: $1.90
- Collingwood 1-39 points: $2.10. 40+ point: $5.25
- West Coast 1-39 points: $2.80. 40+ points: $10
- Draw $41
BETTING BY THE NUMBERS
- $102,000: The potential collect for one TAB punter who bet $2000 at $51 odds on a West Coast premiership last December.
- $52,000: The potential collect for one TAB punter who bet $2500 at $21 odds on a Collingwood premiership after Round 4.
- $26,000: The potential collect for one TAB punter who bet $1000 at $26 odds on a Collingwood premiership last December.
- $67: West Coast’s premiership odds before Round 1, slashed to $5.50 by Round 10.
- $34: Collingwood’s longest premiership odds this season, after a Round 2 loss to GWS.
- $13: Collingwood’s odds to make the Grand Final before Round 1.
- $11: West Coast’s odds to finish in the top-four before Round 1.
- $7.50: West Coast’s premiership odds after Round 23.
- $7: Collingwood’s premiership odds after Round 23.
- $2: Collingwood’s odds to make the top-eight this season before Round 1.
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| Nathan Vardy flies against Brodie Grundy, Tom Langdon and Jeremy Howe. |
- 16: Essendon, Carlton
- 15: Collingwood
- 13: Hawthorn
- 12: Melbourne
- 11: Richmond
- 9: Geelong
- 8: Fitzroy
- 5: South Melbourne/Sydney
- 4: North Melbourne
- 3: West Coast, Brisbane
- 2: Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
- 1: St Kilda, Port Adelaide
- 0: Fremantle, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney
EXPERT TIPS
- Mick Malthouse
- West Coast by 10
- West Coast has beaten Collingwood twice already this season - at home and the MCG.
- Norm Smith: Shannon Hurn (WCE)
- Mark Robinson
- Collingwood by 20
- Midfield wins too much ball and Mason Cox has emerged as a real problem for the Eagles.
- Norm Smith: Taylor Adams (Coll)
- Collingwood by 2
- Honestly, flip a coin. Eagles have got them twice this year, but they also haven’t won a final at the ‘G against a Victorian club since 1999.
- North Smith: Steele Sidebottom (Coll)
- Lauren Wood
- Collingwood by 9
- They are playing with spirit and fight — a bit like another team from down the road we saw do it last year. Another big one from Jordan De Goey on the biggest of stages.
- Norm Smith: Steele Sidebottom (Coll)
- Chris Cavanagh
- Collingwood by 6
- An extra day’s break, no trip from Perth and a venue they are far more familiar with makes it hard to go past the Pies. Bring the intensity they brought against Richmond and the flag is theirs.
- Norm Smith: Jordan De Goey (Coll)
- Sam Landsberger
- West Coast by 20
- The MCG holds no fears for a ballistic team who are the AFL’s aerial kings. Willie will become the latest premiership Rioli.
- Norm Smith: Jeremy McGovern (WCE)
- Glenn Mcfarlane
- Collingwood by 5
- If the Magpies’ midfield starve the Eagles’ twin towers of supply, Nathan Buckley’s team can produce one more fairytale, and win a record-equalling 16th flag.
- Norm Smith: Steele Sidebottom (Coll)
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