Collingwood v Melbourne
Monday June 9, 3.20pmMCG Fox Footy / 7mate 3.00pm Weather: Min 7 Max 16 Chance of rain 5%: < 1mm Wind: W 12kph Betting: Collingwood $1.18 Melbourne $5.00 |
We are now past the midway point of the season and the Magpies have moved into the top four following the thumping of St Kilda last round. However, the gap between the other sides in the top eight is so tight that a loss this round could see Collingwood drop as low as eighth on the ladder, while a win could see it move as high as second.
Collingwood must capitalise on every opportunity to cement a place at the top end of the ladder as it enters the second half of the year.
Collingwood’s opponent this week will be a tricky assignment. Despite the fact that Melbourne currently sits in 15th spot on the ladder, the Demons have proven a much more competitive opponent and nearly caused an upset last round against the ladder leaders Port Adelaide. There is a newfound confidence in the group, which has seen the Demons win two games in the last month against decent opponents.
Although there is a class differential between these two sides on paper, new coach Paul Roos has his side playing accountable and disciplined football. This has made Melbourne a much more difficult side to score against. Collingwood will go into this game as favourites, but it is a test for Buckley’s men as Melbourne in 2014 are proving a side than can cause an upset if its opponent is not switched on.
Further, Melbourne typically lifts for the Queen’s Birthday occasion for it is often one of their biggest crowds for the year on the public holiday.
Recent History
Collingwood has won its previous three encounters against Melbourne on Queen’s Birthday quite easily although in its 2010 premiership year, these sides met twice with Collingwood winning by one point in round two, and then drawing with Melbourne on the Queen’s Birthday.
The last meeting between these two sides was in round 11 last season, where the Magpies won by a hefty 83 points. Dane Swan polled the three Brownlow votes after picking up 39 disposals and kicking a goal. His partner in crime Scott Pendlebury polled the two votes with 34 disposals and a goal and Josh Thomas polled one vote with 27 disposals and two goals.
There were match winners all over the field for Collingwood with Cloke, Ben Kennedy and Kyle Martin all booting three goals. For Melbourne, Nathan Jones played a lone hand picking up 30 disposals.
At the Selection Table
Both sides will have some welcome inclusions this week.
Collingwood looks set to welcome back Dane Swan, Brodie Grundy and Luke Ball who all missed last week with minor injuries. The inclusions come at the expense of Nick Maxwell who will miss 2-3 weeks with a calf injury and Steele Sidebottom who will miss three weeks due to suspension. In other positive news, Ben Reid looks set to return at VFL level in his first competitive hitout for 2014.
Looking at Melbourne, ex-Magpie Chris Dawes will return from suspension to face his old club while Aiden Riley continues to push for selection.
Focus on Collingwood
Although it took three quarters to really break the Saints last round, Nathan Buckley would have been much happier with the four quarter performance and the fact that the Magpies really ran the game out strongly in the last quarter. Collingwood has at times appeared to switch off when the game is won, so last week’s blistering last quarter was extremely pleasing.
It was a test for the Magpies, especially since Nick Maxwell was subbed off early in the first quarter. But Maxwell’s injury gave Paul Seedsman a chance to come on earlier and he was quick to remind everyone just what the club had been missing so far in 2014.
In fact, Collingwood’s defence was incredibly inexperienced following Maxwell’s departure, but it was an opportunity to take a look at what the Collingwood backline is going to look like in the next five to 10 years.
Players such as Marley Williams, Lachlan Keeffe, Jack Frost, Paul Seedsman, Alan Toovey and Tom Langdon are all going to be part of the nucleus of the back six and they already look to be gelling nicely. It is another opportunity this week to test that new-look defence, but it is going to be interesting in upcoming weeks when Reid and Maxwell return to the side.
Player Focus
Paul Seedsman – As alluded to above, Paul Seedsman returned to the side last week and had an instant impact. He is not a huge possession winner (only winning 18 disposals last week in just over three quarters), however he is very damaging and a real weapon across half back. His kicking is obviously a feature, but he is also very quick and breaks the lines. Importantly, he is not afraid to turn back into the centre corridor and open the game up with a spearing pass. Buckley made the comment that he is not yet back to full fitness, so it will be important for Seedsman to back up his good form this week.
Tyson Goldsack – Although Goldsack only had one kick for the entire night against St Kilda, Buckley absolutely loved his game inside the forward 50. He had six inside 50 tackles for the game, which really set the tone for Collingwood’s fanatical pressure all night. In fact, Goldsack leads the competition for forward 50 tackles, which is a statistic that has become very important this year. If Goldsack can start hitting the scoreboard as well, he will become one of the most valuable players in the competition.
Josh Thomas – Thomas was another young Magpie to return to the side last round. He had a frustrating start to the season following an injury-interrupted pre-season, which caused his form to be inconsistent in the early rounds. He was dropped to VFL level where he performed solidly. He was recalled last week following the late omission of Dane Swan and more than filled the void with 29 disposals and three goals. He mightn’t yet feel secure in this team considering the raft of in form midfielders at VFL level and the experienced players still to return to the side, but he is going to prove very hard to displace if he continues to perform to the level he did last round.
Clinton Young – Young was close to Collingwood’s best player last week with 26 disposals (23 of them kicks) and 10 marks. He has been continuously asked to play across half back considering the amount of injuries that have occurred in defence and he continues to perform solidly. Last week’s game showed his worth to the side because when he gets the ball, he carries it 20 metres and then kicks it 60 metres. Not many players in the competition have this ability to break lines and kick over zones and this gives the Magpies a real weapon in defence. He should partner really well with Paul Seedsman.
Travis Cloke – The heat was on Travis last week and he delivered with five goals, 23 disposals and 12 marks in a best afield performance. Let’s hope that is a real turning point for Cloke’s season.
Focus on Melbourne
The Demons are different side in 2014 in both personnel and confidence. Paul Roos has clearly instilled belief in the playing group, but has also provided a simple game plan that the players are adhering to. It is a defensive game plan, built on contested ball winners and an underrated backline.
Melbourne clearly identified in the off-season that it had decent key position players, but there was a massive shortage of midfielders. Therefore, the Demons went and recruited Dom Tyson, Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince. This has complimented Nathan Jones and Jack Viney through the middle. The Demons now have a midfield that prides itself on winning contested ball and staying in the contest.
It was a strong effort against Port Adelaide last round, which came off the back of an impressive win against Richmond the week prior. Melbourne will feel that they can really challenge Collingwood this round.
Player Focus
Dom Tyson – There was a lot of scrutiny surrounding the trade last year which saw Melbourne pass on its prized number two draft pick to Greater Western Sydney and Dom Tyson arrive at Melbourne. Tyson has definitely proved his doubters wrong, especially since the trade also delivered Melbourne the draft pick that landed Christian Salem. Tyson is averaging over 24 disposals a game and is kicking nearly a goal a game as well. These are good numbers from a player who was struggling to make his mark at the Giants and has had to take a real frontline role for the Demons this season.
Tom McDonald – This 21-year-old full back has really established himself as one of the best young defenders in the competition. His role is important because it allows James Frawley to play forward if need be. McDonald is likely to get the big job on Travis Cloke, which could be one of the defining match-ups on the day.
Mark Jamar – He is not the most fashionable or athletic ruckmen in the competition, but there is no doubting that his teammates walk taller when he is on the field. He will be a handful for the young Collingwood rucks because he is a physically intimidating presence and also wins an enormous amount of hitouts.
Nathan Jones – The Melbourne skipper is having a career best season, averaging 28 disposals a game. He had had over 30 possessions in each of his last two rounds, so he enters this week in top form. He is likely to get the Brent Macaffer tag, which is something historically he may have struggled with. But with a stronger midfield around him, Jones is flourishing with the support and also really embracing his leadership role. He is one player the Magpies need to stop because he can be so damaging from stoppages.
Jack Watts – The former No. 1 draft pick is perhaps one of the most scrutinised players in the competition. It was in this corresponding game five years ago that Watts made his infamous debut against a red hot Collingwood who made it a mission to put the debutant under constant physical pressure. The signs have been positive for Watts over the last month, and he is having a big influence each week. He had 21 disposals last round and kicked three goals the round prior. Watts is showing an ability to play a variety of roles for the side, including on a wing, as loose man in defence, but more specifically as a forward option. In all these roles, he is able to utilise his speed and kicking skills to his advantage. The time is right for Watts to finally deliver on all the talent, and he would love nothing more than to prove his doubters wrong on the big stage this Monday.
The Wrap Up
There is no doubt that Melbourne will come to play on Monday and take it up to the Magpies early. The question will be whether the Demons can sustain the pressure required to run with this in form Collingwood side for four quarters.
Melbourne is solid across every line, but is still developing its elite match winners. You get the feeling that if the game becomes a shoot out, Collingwood will just have too many options and should win comfortably. Melbourne will need to make it a scrap and hang with the Magpies for as long as possible. It will also have to shut down the run out of defence and limit Collingwood’s inside 50s.
It is a big ask for Melbourne, and I think the Magpies will eventually break a spirited Melbourne side to run out pretty comfortable winners. Collingwood is one of the best tackling sides in the competition, and I struggle to see the inexperienced Demon midfield cope with this for long.
Collingwood by 30 points.
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