Preview Round 14: Collingwood v Hawthorn

AFL

Collingwood v Hawthorn Saturday June 21, 2.10pm MCG Fox Footy 2.00pm Weather: Min 9 Max 15 Chance of rain 60%: 1- 5mm Wind: N 19kph Betting: Collingwood $3.20 Hawthorn $1.35

THE STAKES for this match have suddenly become much higher after Collingwood's shock eight-point loss to the Western Bulldogs last Sunday. The Pies could drop two games outside the top four if they can't reverse their poor record against the Hawks, which stretches to five losses since the 2011 preliminary final. Collingwood will pin its hopes on star forward Travis Cloke continuing his excellent form after he booted six goals against the Dogs. The under-strength Hawks have strung together three wins and are now building towards their best 22. Key defenders Brian Lake and Ben Stratton are in contention to return from injury to reinforce a backline that looked shaky against Carlton.

THE LAST FIVE TIMES

1. Round 21, 2013, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Collingwood 12.12 (84) at the MCG
2. Round 3, 2013, Hawthorn 22.13 (145) d Collingwood 13.12 (90) at the MCG
3. First Qualifying Final, 2012, Hawthorn 20.15 (135) d Collingwood 15.7 (97) at the MCG
4. Round 17, 2012, Hawthorn 21.12 (138) d Collingwood 13.13 (91) at the MCG
5. Round 1, 2012, Hawthorn 20.17 (137) d Collingwood 16.19 (115) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. The Hawks' five-game winning streak against Collingwood is their longest since they won a club record six-straight from 1989-1992.
2. Hawthorn is the highest possession team in the AFL and averages 402.5 disposals per game, while the Pies are ranked 14th with 356.8 per game.
3. The Hawks have the edge over the Pies at the MCG, winning 16 of 27 clashes. The Pies' last win was the thrilling 2011 preliminary final.
4. It will be a battle of the League's best and worst tackling teams on Saturday. Collingwood averages 75.6 tackles per game compared to the Hawks' 59.2.
5. The Magpies have the worst kicking efficiency in the AFL this season at 69.7 per cent. Hawthorn is ranked 2nd and uses the ball at 73.7 per cent efficiency by foot.
6. Star Hawthorn forward Jarryd Roughead has surged into the top 10 on the Official AFL Player Ratings, displacing teammate Cyril Rioli, following his 13-possession, three-goal performance against Carlton last Friday night.
   

Prediction: Hawthorn by 17 points.