Collingwood v Hawthorn
Saturday June 21, 2.10pmMCG Fox Footy 2.00pm Weather: Min 9 Max 15 Chance of rain 60%: 1- 5mm Wind: N 19kph Betting: Collingwood $3.20 Hawthorn $1.35 |
This is undoubtedly a crucial match for both sides. Collingwood lost its top four position last week following a shock loss to the Western Bulldogs, while Hawthorn sits in second position but are only one game clear of the Magpies who currently sit in sixth position.
The consequence of a loss for Collingwood will severely dent its hopes for a top four position, while a Hawthorn loss will also leave it vulnerable considering the logjam at the top end of the ladder.
After such a disappointing loss, the Magpies will be very keen to bounce back. But Collingwood has not beaten Hawthorn in its last five outings since the Preliminary Final win in 2011. Hawthorn, on the other hand, will be keen to continue its dominance over the Magpies and also cement itself in second position on the ladder.
There is no doubt that the stakes are high. Both sides are carrying significant injuries to key personnel, which means that previous history is hard to take into account considering the different faces that will take to the field this Saturday.
Recent History
These sides met twice in 2013, in round three and round 21, and it was Hawthorn who was convincing winners on both occasions. In both games, Collingwood was competitive in a lot of areas, however the Hawks just had too much class and scoring power for the Magpies to handle.
Collingwood’s midfield has managed to win its fair share of the ball in recent encounters, but it couldn’t play at the same level of efficiency and couldn’t defend the Hawks well enough.
When these sides last met in round 21 last season, Luke Hodge polled the three Brownlow votes with 28 disposals, while Josh Gibson was strong in defence and polled two votes. Dane Swan managed to poll one vote with 35 possessions and Scott Pendlebury also had an influence with 31 disposals.
In round three, Hawthorn overcame a slow start to win by 55 points. Again it was Luke Hodge who polled the three votes with 31 disposals and two goals while Dane Swan again polled votes with 33 disposals. Lance Franklin polled the one vote for booting four goals.
At the Selection Table
Injuries and availabilities of key players will go a long way to determining the outcome of this match. Both sides are missing key defenders and midfielders and have a number of players facing a race against time to be fit by Saturday.
Starting with Collingwood, and much of the focus will be on Dayne Beams who was a late withdrawal last round with a calf injury. The early indication is that Beams is fit and should be available, adding a significant boost to the midfield.
Earlier in the week, the Magpies ruled out Nick Maxwell and Tyson Goldsack from returning. Their presence would have been welcome, especially if Jack Frost is forced onto the sidelines after he jarred his knee against the Western Bulldogs last round. Also keep an eye on Ben Kennedy and Kyle Martin who continue to dominate at VFL level and must be on the cusp of selection.
In other news, Steele Sidebottom will serve the last of his three week suspension this week, but Ben Reid has had another injury setback and will miss 3-4 weeks with a quad complaint. Alex Fasolo underwent foot surgery this week and will miss 2-3 weeks.
Turning the focus onto Hawthorn, and all eyes will be on whether Brian Lake and Ben Stratton are recalled to the side following injury. Both would typically come back through the VFL given their importance to the side and the fact they would be short on match-fitness. But with Travis Cloke in good form, the temptation will be there to rush back Lake in particular, as he is the best match up for the monster forward.
Ben McEvoy will also put his hand up for selection. He played at VFL level last week but will need to displace former Magpie Jonathon Ceglar who has impressed at AFL level in McEvoy’s absence.
If Lake is unavailable, then it will force the likes of Ryan Schoenmakers, Angus Litherland and Matt Spangher to take the key match ups on Cloke and Jesse White. I feel the Magpies will fancy these match-ups.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood has prided itself on solid team defence all year and has placed heavy reliance on a number of youngsters to hold up key posts in the backline. Last week, the bubble burst, as the Bulldogs were able to move the ball very quickly and really expose the defence one on one.
Although this was a concern, I think the bigger concern for the Magpies was the way that the Western Bulldogs were able to get on top in the midfield. In particular, the Bulldogs smashed Collingwood in contested football and clearances. In turn, the Bulldogs had way too many inside 50s, and were able to get really quick entries which consistently put Collingwood’s defence under pressure.
On a more positive note, Collingwood looked dangerous offensively with Cloke and Jamie Elliott kicking 10 goals between them. The Magpies just need to work on their disposal efficiency going forward as too many passes are missing targets.
Player Focus
Travis Cloke – Many doubted Clokey, but he has finally hit form again. He has kicked 13 goals in the last three weeks and now looks to be much more confident. I hate to put the mozz on Cloke, but his kicking for goal has also really improved. If Lake is unavailable, I feel Cloke will really fancy his chances against the Hawks. With Jarryd Roughead up the other end, Cloke will be Collingwood’s most important player as the forward line which gets the most opportunity should be able to put the game away.
Taylor Adams – The pressure is on Adams to hold his spot, but I thought he played a solid game against the Bulldogs. He had 30 disposals (21 contested), seven tackles and kicked a goal. When I watch Adams, it seems a case of often trying too hard as opposed to not trying hard enough. Therefore, I think his disposal will continue to improve if he can keep getting more senior exposure.
Lachlan Keeffe – After a disappointing game against Adelaide, Keeffe was forced to go back to VFL level to regain form. This stint in the VFL was short lived following the injury to Nathan Brown, and Keeffe was recalled immediately to the senior side. Since his return, he has looked very solid and his confidence has returned. He will be essential this week, especially if Jack Frost and Nick Maxwell fail fitness tests. Hawthorn has a tall forward line, which is made more dangerous as its ruckman are also very handy forwards. Keeffe will therefore be required to rotate onto the most dangerous forward at the time, which is a mighty responsibility for a young, developing defender.
Brent Macaffer – Macaffer was beaten last week by Ryan Griffen and only managed to win 12 disposals of his own. As a result, he will be very keen to make amends this weekend. It will be tough for Buckley to decide to whom he sends Macaffer. He is well suited to Jordan Lewis and this seems the most logical match up. But Buckley may also opt to try and shut down the dangerous Shaun Burgoyne or even Hodge who polled a perfect six votes against Collingwood. The other option is to potentially play Macaffer off a forward flank to try and reduce the influence of Matt Suckling. I expect Macaffer to bounce back this week.
Focus on Hawthorn
The Hawthorn side has been near unrecognisable in terms of personnel over the last month. In fact, even the coach has been on the sidelines. This could have totally unravelled Hawthorn’s season, but to its credit it has won each of its past three matches.
Although the Hawks are not playing to the same level we have come to expect, they would be pleased to have gotten through this tricky period intact and without further injuries. With so many experienced premiership players to return over the next month, Hawthorn is very well placed.
There is no secret to the game plan that has seen the Hawks dominate the competition for the past few seasons. The team is chock full of players who use the football well and are willing to take the game on. They convert their chances and hit targets. Even if the Hawks are losing out of the centre, they are able to get numbers back quickly and then rebound through the centre corridor to give the talented forward line plenty of space to work in. Even though opponents know what is coming, it is just about impossible to stop. Teams that have challenged Hawthorn this year have put a lot of pressure on its defenders and forced it into errors. Collingwood is one of the best sides in this area.
Player Focus
Jarryd Roughead – The reigning Coleman Medallist was expected to struggle in 2014 without his partner in crime Lance Franklin. Instead, Roughead has continued to flourish and is fourth in the Coleman race this year. His form is red hot at the moment after an eight goal haul against West Coast followed by three more last week against Carlton. He seems to be playing a bit deeper this year, but it is not uncommon to see him go into the midfield at the centre bounces or even assist in the ruck. He is such a versatile player and a very difficult match-up. I think Jack Frost will get the match-up if he is named to play.
Luke Hodge – Hodge has been written off a number of times over the last few years due to his ageing body often breaking down. But he bounced back in 2013 and has carried this form into 2014. The Hawks skipper is pretty much asked to play wherever there is a hole. With Sam Mitchell out of the side, Hodge has been playing more through the middle and has averaged 24 disposals. However, he is also frequently required to chip in down back due to injuries in that area as well. The Magpies will put attention into him this week as he polled a perfect six votes against them last season.
Bradley Hill – I feel that Hill is one of the most underrated players going around. He doesn’t get a lot of fanfare, perhaps because Cyril Rioli takes a lot of the limelight at Hawthorn. Hill has really taken his game to a new level with a huge fitness base and ability to break the game wide open. He is averaging over 22 disposals a game but most importantly is ranked third in the AFL for goal assists.
Matt Suckling – Suckling missed the 2013 season due to having a knee reconstruction, but has bounced back into the side seamlessly. The defender has a deadly left foot and an ability to push forward and kick a goal when it is needed as well (he has kicked 10 goals this season). Shutting down the likes of Suckling and Grant Birchall is such a key to beating the Hawks as they generate so much run from defence.
The Wrap Up
Given the question marks over both sides’ defences, this could come down to a real midfield battle. Whichever side can give its forward line enough opportunity should be the winner.
The other determining factor will be how much pressure the Magpies forwards can put on the Hawks defenders. When Hawthorn has lost this year, it has been due to the fact that its defenders have made uncharacteristic errors and have been given no time or space. Collingwood is renowned for its forward pressure, but this area of the game was lacking last week against the Bulldogs.
I’m backing the Magpies to bounce back from last week’s loss and beat their bogey side this weekend.
Pies by 5 points.
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