Collingwood v Carlton
Sunday June 29, 7.10pmMCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.00pm Weather: Min 9 Max 13 Chance of rain 90%: 1- 5mm Wind: W 31kph Betting: Collingwood $1.25 Carlton $4.00 |
Collingwood and Carlton are both desperate for wins this Sunday. The Magpies have slipped from fourth spot to sixth spot after two consecutive losses and are yet to really cement a top eight position considering they are only one game clear of ninth spot at the moment.
Carlton, on the other hand, has suffered four consecutive defeats, none more demoralising than the loss last week to Greater Western Sydney. The Blues have plummeted to 12th spot on the ladder with only four wins for the season. It suggests the Blues are extremely unlikely to be able to make the finals from here, but there is plenty riding on this match considering the eyes of the football world will be on them to see how they respond to the shock loss last weekend.
Collingwood was far from disgraced last week against Hawthorn, but would be disappointed that it was again beaten for contested football and for the second week running conceded over 100 points. Collingwood’s young defence has been tested in recent weeks, which is concerning because Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid and Nathan Brown all remain out of the side. Therefore, the onus is going to continue to remain on the likes of inexperienced players such as Jack Frost, Lachlan Keeffe and Marley Williams.
Carlton simply lacked run and carry against the Giants. This would have been concerning for Carlton because its form over the previous two weeks was solid against strong opponents in Geelong and Hawthorn. The Blues were playing with a lot more attacking flair and were willing to take risks. However, on the weekend, I felt Carlton reverted back into its shell and was run off its legs by the young Giants. Coach Mick Malthouse’s instructions this week will undoubtedly be to take risks and to take the game on.
Recent History
Collingwood has won its previous three encounters against the Blues by an average margin of 30 points.
The most recent encounter was only eight rounds ago where it was Collingwood that was convincing 34-point victors. The margin could have been a lot greater, but a final quarter fadeout by the Magpies saw the Blues kick eight last quarter goals.
Dane Swan was brilliant with 32 disposals, whilst Dayne Beams was dominant with 21 disposals and four goals. Pendlebury was also prolific with 26 disposals and Jamie Elliott continued his good form against Carlton with three goals from 20 disposals.
At the Selection Table
Both sides will have big name inclusions this week.
Starting with the Magpies, and Steele Sidebottom is available after serving his three-week suspension. Tyson Goldsack faces a fitness test but is firming for selection as well. Nick Maxwell has ruled himself out of contention to play, while Tom Langdon also faces a fitness test due to concussion. Also keep an eye on Ben Kennedy, who has been dominating at VFL level and is demanding senior selection.
Carlton should welcome back Marc Murphy who pulled out of last week’s match after feeling tightness in his hamstring during the warm-up. Also in line for selection are youngsters Nick Graham and Luke Reynolds who impressed at VFL level last week.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood is going through a very tricky part of the season. It has managed injuries to key players all season but it seems the inexperience in the side is finally starting to take its toll, while the injury list seemingly gets bigger by the week.
While question marks remain over the young backline, it has been the forward line in the last two week that is a greater concern due to the poor spread of goal kickers.
Travis Cloke is in terrific form and has booted 11 goals in the past two rounds and Jamie Elliott continues to kick goals. But the assistance has been few and far between considering Jesse White has failed to have an impact and the Magpies have not been getting the usual amount of goals from their midfielders.
In some regards, it is unsurprising considering players such as Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack and Ben Reid are all out of the side. Although it is great to see Cloke in form, there is no doubt that the Magpies need to find other avenues to goal.
The other major area that Collingwood needs to improve is contested football and clearances. Carlton is typically a good side out of stoppages, so the Magpies need to match the Blues in this area.
Player Focus
Jarrod Witts – There was nowhere to hide for Witts last weekend when coach Nathan Buckley gave him a spray on the boundary line late in the third quarter. It was a poor game for Witts, who just lacked his usual aggression and was struggling to have an impact in marking contests. To his credit, he responded in the last quarter with two goals from strong marks, as well as taking another good contested mark and making a critical spoil in defence. Buckley has a lot of faith in Witts to become something really special, and undoubtedly Witts is still a young ruckman learning his craft. However, he needs to play with his usual aggression and needs to hold his ground in marking contests. He faces a huge challenge this week against another monster of the competition in Robbie Warnock.
Taylor Adams – The knock on Adams so far this season has been his disposal. He improved this dramatically last week against Hawthorn and ran at an efficiency rate of 86 per cent. I feel Adams is clearly the heir apparent to the inside midfielder role and he is getting better with every game he plays. He will square up against the likes of Chris Judd and Marc Murphy this week, so it is yet another big test for Adams.
Scott Pendlebury – Collingwood’s midfield has been inconsistent in recent weeks, but the form of Pendlebury has remained stellar. He was again Collingwood’s leading disposal getter last week with 35 and he averages 30 for the season. This is despite the fact that he gets the tag week, in week out. He may get a tag from Andrew Carrazzo this week.
Alan Toovey – Toovey continues to quietly go about his football and remains one of the toughest defenders to beat. Despite Hawthorn’s dominance last week, Toovey’s direct opponent Jack Gunston was kept in check. Without Nick Maxwell in the side, Toovey has been forced to play on taller opponents, which outlines his versatility and importance to the team. He’ll likely face Lachie Henderson this week, but may also be asked to play smaller on the likes of Daisy Thomas.
Focus on Carlton
As stated above, the Blues lacked any attacking flair last round. This has been a trend for Carlton in 2014 as they are ranked second last in the competition for disposals. Simply put, the Blues just don’t get enough of the football, and when they get it they don’t take enough risks with ball in hand. It seemed as if this trend was reversing as Carlton played ultra attacking footy in the two rounds prior, so much so that it could have beaten both Geelong and Hawthorn.
The question will be: which Carlton turns up this weekend? With Chris Judd now back in the side, along with the return of Marc Murphy, the Blues can still be an incredibly dangerous side and a hard one to contain.
For Carlton to challenge though, it needs an impact from Jarrad Waite, Levi Casboult and Lachie Henderson up forward. Last week, the Carlton tall forwards just did not offer enough to beat the Giants.
Player Focus
Bryce Gibbs – With much of the focus on his contract talks, many people have failed to realise how good his football has been in 2014. He is winning his own footy in contests and is averaging 25 disposals a game. He has also kicked 11 goals so far this year. It will leave Nathan Buckley a real decision this week as to whether to tag Gibbs, Murphy or Judd. Gibbs is perhaps the most damaging of the three and should be buoyed after signing for five years this week, putting the end to the speculation about his future.
Levi Casboult – It was a disappointing game for Casboult last week after he had a real breakout game against Hawthorn the week before. Casboult has always been a terrific contested mark and a handy back-up ruckman, however he has always had question marks over his goal kicking and disposal in general. His goal kicking has improved this year and he has the ability to kick a goal from outside 50. If Waite and Henderson can threaten, Casboult will likely get the third defender which makes him a very difficult match-up.
Troy Menzel – In only his second year, Menzel has already become one of the most important players in the Carlton team. Although he doesn’t win a lot of the football (averaging 10 disposals), he has kicked 19 goals so far in the season. Menzel has so much creativity and reminds me a lot of a young Alan Didak who can make something happen out of nothing. With Jeff Garlett struggling for form all season, Menzel has become the most dangerous small forward for the Blues and will likely get the Marley Williams match-up this round.
Dale Thomas – It’s hard to write a preview about Carlton without mentioning former Collingwood premiership player Dale Thomas. After a very slow start to the season, Daisy has really stepped up his form in recent weeks and is hitting the scoreboard with regularity. Although he hasn’t built up the tank yet to run through the midfield permanently again, he is proving very dangerous up forward and still drifts up the ground to assist through the middle.
The Wrap Up
Collingwood will go in as warm favourites, but it is a real danger game considering Carlton will come out breathing fire after last week’s loss to GWS.
The Magpies have so many injuries and are relying on youth across every line. Despite Carlton’s woes this year, the Blues actually have a more experienced side on the park this weekend. The return of Goldsack and Sidebottom will be important. It also gives Collingwood a bit more flexibility to swing Goldsack into defence if need be, or play forward to put the immense pressure on Carlton’s defenders, which Goldsack has become renowned for.
Collingwood has more depth through the midfield, and this should prove telling as the game wears on. If Cloke has another big game, he could be the difference as Carlton’s talls have been inconsistent all year.
Pies by 15 points.
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