Collingwood v Carlton
Sunday June 29, 7.10pmMCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.00pm Weather: Min 9 Max 13 Chance of rain 90%: 1- 5mm Wind: W 33kph Betting: Collingwood $1.25 Carlton $4.00 |
As they lead into this clash on Sunday Night, the time of the game being an argument all of itself, both teams would be disappointed with where they find themselves after 13 games. Carlton came into the season with high expectations after winning a final last season but 4 losses in a row has left them fighting to avoid the wooden spoon, not fighting for a spot in the finals. The Magpies would have liked to be in the top 4 by this time of the season but after 2 losses in a row themselves they are slowly losing touch with the elite teams in the competition. It’s an important game more so for the Pies than the Blues, with Carlton’s faint finals hopes all but ended last week after a shock loss to the GWS Giants.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
It’s been a tough season to endure so far for Magpie fans with the side never really finding their top form and now struggling to win games altogether. The last two losses have hurt the clubs top four chances although last weekend’s loss to the Hawks was totally predictable in just about every way. The Pies played better against the Hawks than they did the previous week in the devastating loss to the lowly Bulldogs, but Hawthorn’s talent and ability to score so quickly eventually broke the resilient Collingwood outfit. The Pies midfield played well enough with Swan, Pendlebury, Adams, Beams and Ball all getting plenty of possessions but the Magpies weakened defense was exposed yet again as the Hawks won the game with a 4 goal spurt just before 3 quarter time. The return to form of Travis Cloke continued though as the leagues’ best contested mark pulled in 10 grabs and booted another 5 goals. The Pies will be angry about the last two weeks so you’d expect a fired up Magpies outfit against the old enemy on Sunday.
On the injury front there’s not too much good news for Collingwood with only Tyson Goldsack likely to return this weekend, although Steele Sidebottom will return after serving a 3 game suspension for a reckless act against St Kilda. Out of the VFL on the weekend there won’t be too many who come into selection contention with only Ben Kennedy and Kyle Martin shining in the VFL loss to Footscray. Ex skipper Nick Maxwell is at least a week away from returning and with Nathan Brown and Ben Reid absent long term it’s a tough ask for the youngest backline in the AFL to perform consistently. Letting in back to back scores of over 100 points will be a point of concern for the club and something they will hope to remedy against a Carlton team that can score heavily itself.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
It’s just gone from bad to worse for Carlton in 2014, after starting the season with hopes of contending for the finals, or even a top four spot as coach Mick Malthouse stated pre season. But they’ve really looked like a class team and the 4 game losing streak they find themselves on has all but finished any hopes they had this season. There really hasn’t been too many positives for the Blues this year and with the club sitting on the same amount of wins as the 15th placed team, it really is all about the future now for Carlton. There are a few good signs in that regard with Menzel, Docherty and Buckley all performing well at senior level but if you’re being honest the future looks very bleak for Malthouses’ Blues.
The Carlton backline is a worry, it’s their biggest weakness and at the moment it’s really struggling to stop sides from scoring against it. The defense has conceded 100 points in the last 3 games and while 2 of those sides were Geelong and the Hawks it still shows that this backline isn’t strong. Jamison and Rowe have been tasked with the main defensive tall roles and while they got about it manfully they wouldn’t exactly be called elite. If there’s a strength in this weakness it’s the run they get out of their defensive zone though with Walker, Gibson, Docherty and Tuohy all good users of the ball. This week they run into a Pies forward line that is under performing itself so Carlton may have hope, although the form of Cloke and Elliott has to be of most concern for the coaching staff of the Blues.
If Carlton has a real area of strength it’s the midfield, and with names like Judd, Gibbs, Murphy, Thomas, Carrazzo and Robinson it’s not hard to see why. The Blues have a much better average when it comes to the clearances than the Pies with Carlton ranked 5th while Collingwood sit down in 16th. What Carlton may be lacking at the moment is run on the outside once they win the ball but there’s little dispute that they can win the ball from the stoppages. They of course run into a Magpies midfield that’s big on name and reputation but has been inconsistent at times in 2014. The ruck is one area where Carlton will also look to dominate with the experienced Warnock likely to dominate the youngster Witts from the Pies. To win this game, or even to remain competitive Carlton will need to win the midfield battle quite clearly, which is a distinct possibility.
The Carlton forward line has a habit of putting the score on the board yet they really don’t have too many consistent contributors to this result. Youngster Troy Menzel is the only forward to be close to averaging 2 goals a game although there are plenty of others who contribute small numbers on a weekly basis. The recent good form of Levi Casboult has been a positive sign for a Carlton forward line devoid of a real target to kick the ball to. Jarrad Waite has had a poor year really and the move of Henderson forward hasn’t really bought big numbers to the Blues overall scoring. They do face a Collingwood backline that is young and inexperienced though this week and with Tom Langdon in doubt for the Pies it may be weakened even more. If ever this forward line was to have a decent game this may be the week.
Carlton seem to be devoid of confidence and belief at the moment and the loss to GWS was as shocking as it was evidence of just where this Blues outfit is at the moment. Realistically they will need to play above their recent form to be any chance of beating the Pies but sometimes these rivalry clashes bring out the best in the underdog so there is hope for Carlton. On paper they are the more experienced team and have a list that is relatively fit so there are few excuses as to why they can’t at least be competitive here. It’s a big game for Carlton as a football club, Sunday Night, prime time TV and if they fail again here their 2014 season is almost certain to be relegated to the waste bin of history as a failure.
TIP
It’s a strange game to tip this one, if someone showed you the two probable line-ups of paper you’d give Carlton a considerable chance of causing the upset. Yet for some reason many of the experienced players at the Blues are struggling while it’s the opposite with the Pies as the only ones who let them down last week were their bottom 6-8 players.
If the Pies stars come to play again like they did last week, and the backline can just hold its own the Magpies should be able to get a much needed win and keep themselves in touch with the top 4.
PIES BY 19 POINTS.
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