Preview Round 6: Collingwood v Geelong

AFL

SUMMARY

Collingwood v Geelong Friday May 8, 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 17 Chance of rain 70%: < 1mm Wind: WNW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.72 Geelong $2.10

Many pundits are already announcing the end of Geelong's long run of finals appearances, and a loss to the young Pies on Friday night would only strengthen such bleak forecasts.
However, the Cats' greater big-game experience and perhaps overall talent should prove pivotal. The most impressive aspect of the Magpies' performance so far this season has been their desperation, pressure, discipline and defensive mechanisms that have made them difficult to score against.
They have been superb over the past fortnight in huge, emotion-charged clashes against Essendon on Anzac Day and old enemy Carlton in former coach Mick Malthouse's milestone game, and the Cats will be poised to capitalise on the slightest sign of letdown or blockbuster fatigue.

PAST FIVE TIMES

1. R3, 2014, Geelong 12.15 (87) d Collingwood 11.10 (76) at the MCG
2. R8, 2013, Collingwood 15.12 (102) d Geelong 14.12 (96) at the MCG
3. R16, 2012, Collingwood 17.8 (110) d Geelong 10.19 (79) at the MCG
4. R8, 2012, Collingwood 14.12 (96) d Geelong 11.18 (84) at the MCG
5. GF, 2011, Geelong 18.11 (119) d Collingwood 12.9 (81) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Collingwood is the No.1 contested-possession team this year, averaging 157.2 a game compared to Geelong's 125.6, ranked last.
2. No team has kicked the ball less this year than the Cats, who are ranked last with 186.2 kicks a game, compared to the Magpies, who are ranked sixth with 209.2 a game.
3. Both teams have struggled in the clearances so far in 2015; Geelong is ranked 18th averaging 31.8 while Collingwood is 17th with 38.8 per game.
4. Collingwood has won three of the past four contests between the sides, but since 2010 nothing separates the sides with five wins each. Three of the past four have been decided by two goals or less.
5. This will be the 43rd time these teams have played at the MCG and the Cats hold a narrow advantage winning 23 games to 19.
6. Collingwood's superstar skipper Scott Pendlebury has claimed the No.1 mantle in the Official AFL Player Ratings after maintaining a typically high level of performance while Gold Coast counterpart Gary Ablett tries to overcome a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Cats captain Joel Selwood remains in third position while veteran teammate Steve Johnson has fallen to No. 26.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Steve Johnson. The Geelong genius suffered the indignity of being handed the substitute's vest a fortnight ago and uncharacteristically butchered the ball early last week. Stevie J's indifferent form has left many wondering whether he erred in rejecting a fat, last-minute offer from Greater Western Sydney during last year's trade period. The soon-to-be 32-year-old will be desperate to show the footy public he is far from a spent force.

PREDICTION: Geelong by 15 points