Collingwood v Richmond
MCG 7mate / Fox Sports3 3.00pm Weather: Min 8 Max 19 Chance of rain 5%: < 1mm Wind: S 12kph Betting: Collingwood $1.67 Richmond $2.20 |
Both teams are coming off disappointing results in round six and will be keen to make amends.
Collingwood sits comfortably in third position on the ladder with four wins and two losses, but blew an opportunity last week against Geelong to really cement itself in the top four.
Richmond, on the other hand, is languishing in thirteenth spot on the ladder with two wins and four losses. Season 2015 is already at a crucial stage for the Tigers who will be keen not to slip behind any further if they wish to move into a third successive finals series.
The Magpies were disappointing last week, falling 52 points behind Geelong before being able to mount a comeback.
While the result was clearly unsatisfactory, I think the Pies will take some heart from the fact that they were able to mount a comeback and wrestle back momentum. There have been so many upset results in recent weeks, and it shows that the competition is extremely even. Collingwood was off by one per cent to start the game, and found itself seven goals down before it knew it.
In my opinion, Collingwood was a victim of playing a few games that they quickly had on their terms earlier in the year, and maybe wasn’t quite prepared for the heat that Geelong brought in the first quarter. I think that last week’s game will actually serve Collingwood well in the long run, as it was a really big test and exposed a few areas that coach Nathan Buckley can work on throughout the week.
Collingwood will probably take more out of that game long term than it did in one of its bigger wins of weeks gone by. It showed in the second half that it could play at the level Geelong was playing, and the margin was halved by the mid-way point of the last quarter.
The Tigers, however, find themselves in a bit of a hole. Many were tipping them for a potential top four finish, but they have managed two victories from the opening six rounds. A win this week keeps them in touch with the pack, but a loss will make it a greater challenge to strike back, considering how even the competition is.
It will be interesting to see whether the Tigers can turn it around this Sunday against a more fancied opponent.
The weather forecast is perfect, with a sunny 19 degrees predicted. So let’s delve into the preview ahead of this week’s crucial game.
Recent History
Damien Hardwick has never experienced a coaching victory against Collingwood, with the Magpies winning the past seven encounters.
You need to go back to round four last season for the last battle between these two sides. The Magpies were comfortable victors by 38 points.
Dayne Beams polled the three Brownlow Medal votes with 30 disposals and three goals, whilst Scott Pendlebury polled the two votes with three goals from 24 disposals. Dustin Martin was Richmond’s best and polled one vote. He had 29 disposals and also kicked a goal. Travis Cloke was held goalless, but he does have a terrific record against Richmond having kicked 13 goals in his previous three encounters (including a seven goal haul in 2013).
At the Selection Table
Nathan Buckley has a few decisions to make this week. Paul Seedsman should make a welcome return to the side and the Magpies will enjoy his run and carry. Jordan De Goey has also been in hot form at VFL level at is banging the door down for selection, along with Ben Kennedy who has also been impressive. Alex Fasolo continues to put his name up, too, with three crucial goals last week proving vital in the VFL side’s close victory. Corey Gault was also a solid performer following his demotion to VFL and Jonathon Marsh continues to make waves in his second season.
On the injury front, Steele Sidebottom continues his recovery from a hand injury. Buckley has stated that Sidebottom is unlikely to play as he has only had the cast off for just over a week now. He will most likely need another week of training to build strength in the injured hand. Jackson Ramsay is also unlikely to return, although Ben Reid should return to VFL level this week.
Turning attention onto Richmond, and Hardwick has signalled his intention to make a number of changes this week to allow some fresh blood into the side. He may be forced to make at least one change with Ben Griffiths suffering concussion last weekend. Ty Vickery is the obvious replacement, but young Liam McBean also impressed at VFL level booting five goals. Richmond has been bullish about McBean for some time now, so this may be the opportunity to give him a run.
Matt Arnot and Jason Castagna have also impressed at VFL level. Richmond fans would probably also like to see a bit more of high draft picks Corey Ellis and Ben Lennon. Chris Newman was also sore last week and may be rested.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood is still ranked first for contested football, but was beaten in this area for the first time this year last round. This was most concerning considering Geelong is ranked 18th in the competition for contested possession. It has led to Buckley publicly questioning his side’s hunger at the contest last week, which is genuinely the first time this year he has had to do that. It will be interesting to see if he is able to get a spike in performance by his midfielders off the back of these comments.
The other area which would be concerning Buckley is the centre clearances. The midfield has been beaten comprehensively in clearances by Carlton and Geelong over the last two rounds. Richmond has good names in the midfield, including great clearance players like Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin. Collingwood needs to step up in this area to ensure their opponents don’t get any ascendency from the middle.
The other concern to arise out of last week’s match was goal kicking. The blowtorch has been placed on the key forwards for their inaccuracy, but there were many other culprits as well. While the final margin was substantial, I felt that there were crucial shots missed at crucial times that denied the Magpies any hope of getting back into the game.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Travis Cloke – Cloke has been publicly scrutinised all week for his wayward kicking. Everyone has an opinion on it! The fact is that Cloke played a pretty good game last week, including booting two big goals from 50 out. The obvious problem is that he missed two very gettable shots. If Cloke had kicked the easy ones, and missed the hard ones, then he still would’ve kicked 2.2 and we probably would be praising his performance. Cloke has spent extra time after training working on his goal-kicking, so hopefully he can improve this round. He typically performs very well against his father’s old club, but will have a difficult match up against the in-form Alex Rance.
Brodie Grundy – Brodie has rucked alone all year, but was given support last week with Jarrod Witts. The combination did not fire, but Grundy still had a solid game with 18 disposals and 24 hitouts. The Grundy and Witts combination can work, but they need to take more contested marks and also learn to play as a resting forward. There were glimpses last round, with Witts taking a nice mark at one stage and then booting it long to Grundy who also took a good grab. The potential is there, but they need to just keep working on their marking. Grundy has been in stellar form all year, and will have a crucial battle against Ivan Maric this round.
Nathan Brown – Brown will celebrate his 100th game for the Magpies, which has been a huge achievement considering the injury setbacks he has had over the past three to four seasons. He was Collingwood’s best player last round when he switched onto Tom Hawkins, limiting Hawkins to only two more disposals for the rest of the match. While many were critical of Buckley’s decision to start Jack Frost on Hawkins, the fact is that Frost has been playing the full back position, with Brown playing on the stronger bodied opponent (which in this case was Mitch Clark). I think Frost will again take the full back match-up on Jack Riewoldt this week, with Brown going to either Griffiths, Vickery or McBean depending on who Hardwick selects.
Focus on Richmond
There are many areas of concern for Richmond, but the biggest and most glaring issue last round against North Melbourne was the unforgivable turnovers. Unfortunately, it was even star players who were gifting goals to the opposition with shank kicks or poor decisions. In many other respects, Richmond was in the game and if it can just clean up these skill errors then things can potentially turn around quickly.
Richmond has shown glimpses that it can play quick attacking footy. It looks best when it plays this way, but, like all teams, when it goes into its shell, it becomes difficult to move the ball from the backline. The other issue is that there are not a lot of dangerous small forward options at ground level to crumb and kick goals.
The talent is definitely there. The question mark is whether there is enough pace in the side to match the competition’s best. The return of Brett Deledio will help, but it will take him a few weeks to get his match fitness back. He looked good in spells last weekend.
Player Focus – Richmond
Shane Edwards – He is one player who has genuinely improved over the past two seasons and also adds a lot of speed to the side. He is a goal kicking midfielder (averaging a goal a game so far this season), and also has very high tackle numbers to go with his average of 22 disposals per game. While a lot of the focus every week goes onto Cotchin, Martin and Deledio, I believe Edwards is one of the most damaging players in the side, and the sort of player Richmond needs more of.
Dustin Martin – Despite last week’s defeat, Martin could not be accused of refusing to try to take the game on and make something happen. He had 30 disposals and genuinely tried hard to get his side going. At his best, Martin is a goal kicking midfielder, but he has sacrificed this part of his game in recent weeks to fill a permanent midfielder role. Martin is a very good forward option and is the sort of player who can average a goal a game. This might mean fewer disposals through the midfield, but in my opinion I think he needs to play this forward role more often.
Brandon Ellis – He is a player who has stood up so far this year, averaging 26 disposals a game and spending far more time in the middle. Despite this, he has not kicked a goal this year. He ranks sixth in the competition for uncontested disposals, so if he can add that more attacking edge to his game, he could become the complete player. I’m expecting another 26-30 disposal game from Ellis as he gradually becomes Richmond’s number one ball winning player.
The Wrap Up
It is a crucial game for both sides. Collingwood needs to bank wins now, and needs a win to stay in the top four. Richmond on the other hand needs a big scalp and can’t afford another loss. Collingwood will undoubtedly go in favourites, and boosted by the potential return of Paul Seedsman who has been a star in recent weeks. But I think the contest is very even, and you can never underestimate Richmond who has a very talented line up.
The Tigers just need to find more goal-kickers, and also need to clean up their disposal efficiency. This will be tough if Collingwood is switched on as the Magpies are a very good pressure side and will make it tough for Richmond to find time and space.
Collingwood needs to start the game better than it did last week, and needs to turn the heat on Richmond from the outset. The Magpies have been a very fit side, typically finishing off games strongly.
For mine, Collingwood needs to absorb any early pressure the Tigers bring and slowly the tide should swing in its favour. It also needs to nail the set shots!
Pies by 21
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