Collingwood v Geelong
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 17 Chance of rain 30%: < 1mm Wind: WNW 27kph Betting: Collingwood $1.67 Geelong $2.20 |
Of course these two have a lot of recent history that stems back to 2007. Collingwood and Geelong played in 3 preliminary finals and a grand final in a four year period, with the Cats coming out on top in all but one game, the 2010 preliminary final. The biggest clash of course was the 2011 Grand Final, a game where the Magpies led early but the fitter Cats ran over the top to record their 3rd premiership win in 5 seasons. Since that Grand Final the two have played 4 times in total with Collingwood winning 3 and Geelong winning the sole matchup last season.
PREVIOUS FORM
Coming into this game Collingwood couldn’t be in much better form, and their fans are close to delirium after two big wins over arch rivals Essendon and Carlton. The first off those wins came as somewhat of a shock to most as the Pies dominated the second half against the Bombers on ANZAC day to record their most impressive win in a long time. The win over Carlton was expected, but the manner in which Collingwood absolutely dominated for all four quarters couldn’t go unnoticed. The most impressive part of the Pies start to the season has been their young defensive unit though, which is currently only slightly trailing the experienced Fremantle defense for total points conceded. The Magpies are now a tough team to score against.
Geelong has had a tough draw, there’s no other way of saying it. The one concern was the manner of their losses though, with heavy defeats to Fremantle, North Melbourne and Hawthorn. The Cats needed a win last week and they got it, defeating another struggling team in Richmond with relative ease. The final margin of 9 points wasn’t a true indication of the game as Geelong led for the entire match and should have won by more. Mitch Duncan and Tom Hawkins led the way for the Cats and for the first time this season their backline held up pretty well. It was a crucial win for Geelong that may well put their season back on track.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
No one expected this, Collingwood to have an opportunity to start the season with a 5-1 record. Well when I say no one I mean anyone who isn’t a Pies fan or involved with the club. Internally Collingwood knew what it had, a very good young list with some super elite talent at the top. That elite talent is showing through already with Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke, Dane Swan, Jamie Elliott and the absent Steele Sidebottom the base to grow off. As mentioned above though the defense is the reason that this side is 4-1 to start the season. Even in their “off week”, the loss to the Crows that young, inexperienced backline didn’t concede 100 points. Led by Nathan Brown, Alan Toovey and Tyson Goldsack, the Pies defense is as good as any going around at the moment. Jack Frost, Tom Langdon, Adam Oxley, Jackson Ramsay and Marley Williams are the youngsters who have injected toughness, accountability and drive that simply hasn’t existed for a while in the black and white jumper. It’s this defense that can take the Pies far, and this defense that will be relied upon against a dangerous Geelong forward line.
It seems the Pies came through the easy win over Carlton with a clean bill of health, with past match concerns over Seedsman and Ramsay being cleared up pretty quickly. That leaves coach Nathan Buckley with some tough choices. The Magpies VFL side had a stunning win over the reigning premiers Footscray on Saturday, with Jordan De Goey, Jarrod Witts, Brenden Abbott and Jonathon Marsh all pushing for senior selection with top performances. De Goey and Marsh were both brilliant in the win, and both are showing great signs for the future. Also back in contention is Tim Broomhead who missed the game versus Carlton with an illness. Whatever the final selection is there will be a few unlucky candidates indeed.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
It’s hard to judge how good the 2015 version of Geelong is. Yes, they aren’t up there with the top echelon of teams, as shown by their three losses this season. But their two wins have come against decent opposition still. This Friday night might be the fairest gauge of the Geelong Cats so far in 2015. In comparison to the Pies they will have a longer injury list although both teams will field several youngsters in their endeavours to rebuild while remaining competitive. The Cats will look to welcome back a few players who have missed games with Stokes, Clark, Mackie and Cockatoo all in contention to return to the seniors. The loss of James Kelly will hurt a Cats side already missing several experienced players though.
The Cats have a problem, and it’s their midfield. They ranked bottom of the league for contested possessions and 15th for clearances, something previously unheard of in the recent great era of that football club. Only Joel Selwood is really still pulling his weight in the middle, and it’s an area they will have to improve upon if they are to beat the Magpies this Friday. They have some talent, Guthrie, Caddy and Duncan but the absence of some of the stars of years’ past is hurting them right now. Against a Pies midfield that is leading the league in contested possessions the Cats will have to figure something out fast or risk being dominated in this area. The ruck is also a concern for the Cats with Simpson and Blicavs struggling to take control in any game so far this year.
Geelong’s defense is still pretty strong, despite giving up some big scores in a few of their games this season. Led by Taylor, Lonergan, Rivers and Enright this defensive unit is still capable of shutting even elite forwards down, as seen against the Tigers for the first three quarters last week. The Magpies forward line is still a work in progress, with Elliott and Cloke the only truly dangerous forwards. The Cats will back themselves to be able to contain the Pies forwards, but their may be questions about how Geelong clears it out of defense against a Magpies team which is creating so much pressure. This may well be where the game is won or lost, if the Cats can rebound the ball out of the Pies offensive zone they will gain a huge advantage there.
If there’s one area that the Cats can dominate the Magpies they will believe it will be their forward line. Especially if Mitch Clark and Rhys Stanley are fit and ready to return the Geelong forward set up looks very dangerous indeed. The young Pies defense has been in great form so far this season but matched up against the likes of Hawkins, Clark, Stanley, Motlop, Walker, Johnson and Stokes it will face it’s biggest test of the season to date. Geelong does have a selection quandary on their hands if Clark and Stanley are both fit but it’s a positive quandary for once. This is the area of the ground that for the Cats to win this game they will have to dominated for sure.
The Cats are wounded, they are missing several key names and lost a few more over the weekend past. With the absence of Kelly, Bartel, Vardy, Menzel, Mackie, McIntosh and Smedts it leaves the Cats almost being forced to play inexperienced players, something the Pies know all too well from last season. Geelong still has plenty of talent though, especially when it comes to key position players and that’s where they will be hoping to gain an advantage on Friday night. They will have to play better then they have at any point this season though to come out on top.
TIP
With a reduced injury list the Cats would start favourites in this game pretty much regardless of form. This week though they face Collingwood with an injury list longer and more talented then what is missing from the Pies. Add that the Magpies are clearly in better form then Geelong and most things point to a Collingwood victory on Friday night. A lot still depends on final selection but as it stands I see the Pies winning this game quite easily and improving to a 5-1 record.
MAGPIES BY 17 POINTS.
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