Round 14
Friday July 3, 7:50pmCollingwood v Hawthorn MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 6 Max 13 Chance of rain 40%: < 1mm Wind: WNW 17kph Betting: Collingwood $3.30 Hawthorn $1.33 |
Collingwood faces the reigning premiers Hawthorn at the MCG on Friday night in a battle between fourth and fifth on the ladder. The stakes are high considering both sides are on eight wins, and the winner will sit a game clear in fourth position at the conclusion of this round.
The criticism of the Magpies all year has been the calibre of teams it has beaten. They came agonisingly close last round to knocking off top of the ladder Fremantle, which would have put an end to all that speculation.
Despite the impressive performance, Collingwood will be disappointed in the way it finished the game as there were opportunities to win. It was ultimately a missed opportunity, but the Magpies should take a lot of lessons from the game and improve dramatically the next time they are in a similar situation.
Hawthorn has been up and down all year, but to its credit has still managed to scrape into the top four. You get the feeling that the Hawks are building really nicely into the second half of the year and are now well placed to make an assault on the top two. Hawthorn’s win last round against Essendon was again far from a complete performance considering it was outplayed for much of the first half. It’s a scary thought, however, to think that there is still so much improvement left in the Hawks and that they should be peaking come finals.
Hawthorn has been a real bogey team for Collingwood, but I believe the Magpies are better placed now than they have been in recent years. Collingwood is in the middle of a block of very challenging games, with Port Adelaide and West Coast to come in the following fortnight so this is a real test for coach Nathan Buckley and his men.
In many regards, the Magpies passed their first test last week by playing so well against Fremantle and this will give the side a lot of confidence that it can match the best.
But Hawthorn is a different team with a different method of play, and it has always worried Collingwood in the past. Respectable losses are not something that the Magpies can be satisfied with if they are genuinely going to finish in the top eight this year. A loss this week is far from the end of the world, but it will put Collingwood back in the pack again and with no guarantee to play finals.
Recent History
Since the thrilling Preliminary Final victory in 2011, Collingwood has lost its last seven matches against Hawthorn. The victories have also been quite comprehensive, with the most recent encounter played in round 23 last season when the Hawks won by a whopping 65 points.
In many regards, it is not a game that can be read into considering Collingwood’s enormous injury list at the time. But the Hawks had 171 more disposals than the Magpies, 66 more marks and 11 more inside 50s. Jordan Lewis was at his prolific best with 34 disposals, 11 marks and one goal which was enough to earn him the three Brownlow votes. Josh Gibson was equally as damaging with 36 disposals and 11 marks, polling the two votes. Jack Gunston was the chief destroyer in front of goals with five. For Collingwood, Steele Sidebottom stood up with 36 disposals.
At the Selection Table
Both sides are likely to make changes this week. Their respective VFL sides played off in a classic last round, with the Magpies just scraping across the line, so there are plenty of players knocking on the door.
The one forced change for the Magpies will be Tyson Goldsack who has been ruled out with a knee complaint. Ben Reid would have been the likely replacement, but the Magpies are likely to be conservative again after he was rested from the final quarter last weekend in the VFL with a corked calf and he is also yet to play a full game.
Levi Greenwood has also played two games at VFL level and will be in line for selection, while Darcy Moore was impressive with three goals. Brodie Grundy is out of his neck brace and is a real chance for selection. Brayden Maynard and Jonathon Marsh may also get their chance to debut given Goldsack’s absence.
Others who are staking their claims at VFL level are Ben Kennedy, Patrick Karnezis, Sam Dwyer, Clinton Young and Ben Sinclair. All were again very good last week and deserve a spot. Competition is definitely very hot, but it will be very hard to find room in the senior team.
Hawthorn will need to make at least one forced change with James Frawley injuring his shoulder last round. Matt Spangher is the logical replacement, but he suffered an ankle injury last round at VFL level and is subject to a fitness test this week. Ryan Schoenmakers is the other option to replace Frawley, but he was quiet last week so I would expect Spangher is the preferred option if fit.
Cyril Rioli will also slot straight back into the side after he was a late omission last round. Ben McEvoy is playing good football at VFL level and was named in the best last week, but he will struggle to break in with David Hale and Jonathon Ceglar performing well. Angus Litherland and Brendan Whitecross are also pushing hard for selection.
Breaking: As I submit this article, it has just come to my attention that Jarryd Roughead will also miss this week after a melanoma was removed from his lip. The absence of Roughead may see a young player like James Sicily or Tim O’Brien get their chance if the Hawks want to maintain their structure. We all wish Roughie well and hope to see him back out on the ground again soon.
Focus on Collingwood
Nathan Buckley has openly admitted during the week that a communication breakdown in the last quarter had a large influence on the result of the game. Stephen Hill was allowed to play loose behind the ball, while Collingwood utilised its extra number around the stoppages. Hill was influential in the last quarter.
For mine, I think the biggest issue to come out of the game was the late goals that Fremantle were allowed in the first three quarters. In the first quarter, Fremantle scored two goals in red time, while it also scored a goal in the dying seconds of the second and third quarters.
Collingwood needs to clean up these areas, as Hawthorn is a terrific team in stoppage time, and is also deadly if allowed numbers behind the ball. Collingwood has a deep midfield, so there is no need for an extra number around the stoppage. It needs to use the spare number in an offensive manner to try and draw the Hawthorn loose man away from the dangerous spots.
On a more positive note, Collingwood’s tackling pressure and intensity was terrific for four quarters. Last week was probably the side’s most consistent effort of the year. It goes without saying that it needs to play to the same level this week to challenge the Hawks. Hawthorn likes using the ball by foot and taking the game on. The only way to stop the Hawk’s quick ball movement is to put a lot of pressure on the ball carrier and also dominate around the stoppages. Hawthorn’s contested football game is very underrated, but has been slightly off the boil in the last few weeks.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Travis Varcoe – It is early days, but Collingwood is winning the three-way trade which saw Heritier Lumumba become a Demon, Mitch Clark become a Cat and Varcoe a Magpie. We have always known that Varcoe is a skilful and quick player, but what has surprised me is his work rate and defensive tackling. He is putting his body on the line every week and his chasing has been a feature, which was highlighted by his incredible tackle on Danyle Pearce last week. He is one player that has experienced success against Hawthorn as Geelong player, so his experience will be valuable on Friday. He has played a number of roles for Buckley, but has been used slightly more defensively in the last few weeks in the hope he can generate more run off half back.
Jarrod Witts – It was an impressive effort from Witts last week against Aaron Sandilands and his first half in particular was a big reason why the Magpies were on top. His foot skills were also very good, although Sandilands did eventually get the better of him and dominated the ruck in the all-important last quarter. Nonetheless, Witts has been very impressive with his tap work, and should do well against Ceglar this week. Witts has stood up as the sole ruck, but may get some assistance if Grundy is recalled. I feel he just needs to have a bigger impact in marking situations.
Dane Swan – Swanny is averaging 29 disposals a game this year and is hitting the scoreboard as well. He was one of Collingwood’s best last week in the loss to Fremantle. With the likes of Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury and Sidebottom doing the bulk of the grunt work, Swan is enjoying the freedom of playing all over the ground without a lot of attention. Hawthorn is a high scoring team, so the Pies will need someone like a Dane Swan to kick a few goals from the midfield this week.
Focus on Hawthorn
It’s no secret that Hawthorn is a very skilful and attacking team. It again leads the competition for points scored this year, averaging 16 goals a game. This is why it is so hard to beat the Hawks as they can score so quickly and are never out of the game. Unlike Fremantle, who can beat you by scoring 60-70 points a game, the Hawks consistently score over 100 points. It means that to beat them, you need to be offensive as well as they are a side that cannot be contained.
As good as the offence is, the defence is very good as well. In fact, so much of the run comes from defence. But I think the biggest weapon that Hawthorn has is its versatility. Roughead was well held last week, so he was swung into the midfield where he picked up 29 disposals. If the midfield needs a bit more drive, Shaun Burgoyne just goes in there and dominates. Cyril Rioli didn’t play, so Paul Puopolo kicks four goals. Players like Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Lewis can play anywhere on the ground. Whilst most sides have a Plan B, the Hawks have a Plan C, D, E and F. It makes planning for them very hard. Roughead’s absence does take away a few options, so it will be interesting to see how the Hawks restructure their forward line without their spearhead.
I think the formula to beating the Hawks is not rocket science. You need to shut down their kicking game, win out of the midfield and make their backs defend. The Hawks like peeling off, and generating defensive run. If this is slowed, then you can score. But implementing this sort of game plan over four quarters is so difficult. The Hawks are a fit and experienced side that eventually work you over. They continuously take the game on and have plenty of pace that will break a game open at some stage.
Player Focus – Hawthorn
Isaac Smith – Although much of the attention goes onto the likes of Rioli and Bradley Hill, Smith has been a real improver this year and is one of the most damaging players in the Hawthorn side. He is averaging a career high 26 disposals per game and a goal per game. He is the prototype wingmen, standing at 188cm tall with electric pace and a neat left-foot. While it is impossible to tag all of Hawthorn’s stars, I wouldn’t put it past Buckley to run Crisp on Smith to shut him down.
Josh Gibson – Gibson is one of the best defenders in the competition at peeling off his man to take intercept marks and spoiling. He also has a penetrating left foot, and can be quite a damaging player if he is allowed too much of the ball. He polled the two Brownlow votes when these sides last met picking up 36 disposals. Collingwood simply can’t afford to give Gibson this sort of freedom again. The injury to Frawley may force him to play more accountable, but the Hawks have numerous players at VFL level can slot in to play this role. Whoever gets Gibson as an opponent needs to make themselves relevant or else Gibson will just peel off and double team Cloke. The onus is also on the Collingwood midfielders to lower their eyes to spot up his opponent to keep him accountable.
Jack Gunston – Gunston is having another solid year, but has had a few up and down weeks in front of goals. He has kicked 25 goals for the year, which includes three last week against the Bombers. He has also kicked 19 behinds for the season, including four last week. I expect Jack Frost to get the match-up, and this should be a cracking battle. Gunston is very good at ground level, and it is also not unusual to see him roaming high up the field and assisting down back. It makes him a very difficult match-up, but Frost definitely has the speed to go with him. Without Roughead, Gunston is the main focal point, but will get good help from his resting ruckmen.
The Wrap Up
The Hawks have the wood over the Magpies and will be confident after their victory last week which put them back in the top four. Collingwood, though, will also be confident after it matched the Dockers last round. It’s a young team that won’t hold fears in facing this champion Hawthorn team.
Collingwood has been a good contested football side this year, and needs to again get on top in this area. But the Magpies can’t simply rely on defensive structures to beat the Hawks. They also need to take the game on and try to gain the momentum. Taking opportunities in front of goal when they present, and keeping Hawthorn’s defenders accountable is the key.
I think Collingwood has been steeling itself for this battle all season and I have a good feeling about the Pies. Hawthorn is playing good football, but hasn’t hit top gear just yet. I’m expecting a huge crowd on Friday night at the home of football, and I’m sure the game will live up to the hype.
UPDATE: The loss of Roughead does even the game up as the Hawks will now need to rely on a resting ruckman to help fill the void or a younger inexperienced player.
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