Round 18
Saturday August 1, 2:10pmCollingwood v Melbourne MCG Fox Sports 2:00pm Weather: Min 7 Max 12 Chance of rain 60%: <1mm Wind: W 22kph Betting: Collingwood $1.30 Melbourne $3.50 |
There is hope for Collingwood as the draw gets easier, at least for the next two weeks. On Saturday they host Melbourne back at the MCG, a ground the Pies have only played once at in the past 7 weeks. The Demons have had another season to forget, currently sitting in 15th place on the ladder with 5 wins out of 16 games. The Dees are also ugly to watch at the moment, they can’t score and that has led to some poor games of late. The two sides did meet earlier in the season in the traditional Queen’s birthday fixture. Despite Melbourne threatening at times in that game the Magpies ran away with a 25 point win. Once again there is an added edge to this game with ex Magpies Chris Dawes and Heritier Lumumba running out for Melbourne now. This really is a game Collingwood should be winning to keep their faint finals hopes alive.
PREVIOUS FORM
Collingwood’s form has gradually got worse throughout the 5 game losing streak. It started off with respectable losses to Fremantle and Hawthorn but it’s got worse after that. The loss to Port Adelaide was a real let down for the club, especially considering the type of season Port are having. Then came the loss to the Eagles, in a performance that may well have been the worst of the Pies season so far. That left them needing to beat the Bulldogs last week to avoid their worst losing streak in 10 years. They didn’t, and realistically they never looked like winning despite getting within striking distance in the final term. Just about the only positive out of that loss to the Dogs was the performance of third gamer Darcy Moore who kicked 4 second half goals (5 in total) to give a taste of what he has to offer in the future.
Melbourne went in the mid season break with a bit of hope. They’d pushed Collingwood and should have beaten St Kilda, and then had done what for years was impossible, defeat Geelong on their home ground. Since then though it hasn’t been pretty, with the only win in the last 4 games coming against the worst side in the competition at the moment, the Brisbane Lions. Last week’s loss to St Kilda was probably a season low for the Dees. Considering just a few weeks earlier they went so close to defeating the Saints at Etihad Stadium, most thought they would put up a fight versus the Saints back at the MCG. They didn’t, they were poor, as they went down to the Saints by 37 points. There weren’t many positives for Melbourne fans to see with only Grimes, Viney and Watts playing above expectations.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
It’s now or never for Collingwood, another loss this week and their finals hopes will be dead in the water. The last 5 weeks have thrown up some great contests and a few poor performances yet absolutely zero return for any effort. Of course now there’s the obvious comparisons to last season where the Pies went 8-3 in the first half of the year then 3-8 in the second half. But it’s a different Collingwood team this season, last year was ripped apart by injuries and off field problems, with several players clearly not happy with their situation at the club. This year, even after 5 consecutive losses, and despite some crucial injuries, the group seems more tight knit then ever under Nathan Buckley. It’s not showing up in the results though, and that has to change soon or the Pies will miss the finals for the second season in a row.
There are some positives though leading into this clash with Taylor Adams certain to return after serving a two week suspension. Collingwood’s VFL side also had another strong win and out of that game the likes of Sam Dwyer, Clinton Young, Paul Seedsman, Matthew Scharenberg and Jonathan Marsh will all be seeking promotion to the seniors. It does seem though that the long awaited return of Ben Reid will have to wait one more week at least despite the all Australian playing a full game in the VFL win. Travis Cloke and Jamie Elliott are also unavailable once again. Who goes out of the side is as much a debate as who comes in with several Magpies struggling with form throughout the recent losing streak. Jarryd Blair has been used as the substitution of a few occasions and that;s usually a sign that he’s on the verge of being omitted. Adam Oxley, Jarrod Witts, Jesse White and Alan Toovey are also struggling at the moment so there may be 3-4 changes.
The Magpies should win this game though, they disposed of Melbourne relatively easily last time around and there’s little doubt that the Demons are an easier team to beat now then they were then. It’s all about attitude and effort for the Pies and if they bring a high level of intensity they should end their losing streak at five.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
It’s been another tough season for the Demons. There have been signs of improvement though. Melbourne finished 17th in each of the past two years yet this season they are likely to improve at least a few positions on the ladder. Their fans demand more and rightfully so given the recent history of this once proud football club. Of course there’s been positive signs from some of the young talent they have with Brayshaw, Hogan, Tyson, Viney, Neal-Bullen and Gawn showing signs that they will form the basis of this side going forward. Melbourne showed only a few weeks back that they are capable of an upset and their fans would love nothing more then to beat one of their old enemies on Saturday.
The Melbourne forward line has plenty of talent but the ball simply isn’t getting down there. The Demons forwards are the least supplied in the AFL, averaging 16 less inside forward 50 entries then the leagues’ best side, Hawthorn. It’s a pity because as mentioned there is talent on this forward line. Led by the emerging superstar that is Jesse Hogan and the very good off season recruit in Jeff Garlett this is the one are of the ground where Melbourne can do some damage. This season’s output does drop off after those two but with Dawes, Watts and Vandenburg in attack also it has the potential to be an area of strength if they can get the ball there more often. The Magpies defense has been strong this season though so the Dees will need to figure out how to get the ball inside 50 more then what they have been doing.
The Demons midfield should be there are of strength really, with names like Jones, Vince, Cross, Brayshaw, Tyson, Grimes, Lumumba and Viney. But it is struggling and has been for most of the season. While they rank a respectable 9th for contested possessions it’s in the middle where the problems really are. Melbourne are the 14th best team at winning the clearances, and quite simply that shows why their forward line has been so under supplied this season. They run into a Pies midfield that is as good as anyone in the competition at winning the contested ball, and better then the Demons at the clearances. If there is one area that the Demons may be able to dominate it’s in the ruck with Max Gawn really coming into his own in recent weeks and the option to include Mark Jamar if deemed necessary.
The Melbourne backline has been weakened off late with the loss of the likes of Rivers and Frawley through free agency. Jeremy Howe has made the move down back in many games this year and is starting to show he can play down there for sure. He’s helping out the likes of Dunn, McDonald, Garland and Jetta and with time this backline could develop into something strong. At the moment though senior coach Paul Roos is relying on a team defensive mentality to keep games closer then they would be other wise. The positive for the Dees is that Collingwood is missing their best two forwards at the moment, Cloke and Elliott. Just maybe the restrictive brand of football the Demons are playing will be able to keep them in this game long enough.
The Demons list looks better then it did at this time last season but the results still aren’t coming through. They would see this game as an opportunity to repay the faith their fans have shown in them and defeat one of their greatest rivals. To do that though they will have to figure out a way to get the ball insider their forward zone and score. That all starts with the midfield and against a Pies midfield that hasn’t been great of late they may be able to make this a contest.
TIP
Collingwood go into this game as favourites despite Melbourne winning more games in the last 5 weeks then the Pies. That favouritism is based on talent and potential more then form but the Demons will think they are a chance here. In the first matchup between the two this season it was Melbourne who looked the most impressive side for a lot of the game until the stronger Pies got on top late. The only chance the Dees have to win this game is to get an early lead and hold on.
Realistically though, even with the recent losing streak this Collingwood team should win this game. The absence of Cloke, Reid, Broomhead and Elliott doesn’t help but if they can regain their form from a few weeks back they’ll come away with a comfortable win.
MAGPIES BY 23 POINTS
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