Preview Round 18: Collingwood v Melbourne

AFL

Round 18 Collingwood v Melbourne Saturday August 1, 2:10pm MCG Fox Sports 2:00pm Weather: Min 7 Max 12 Chance of rain 60%: <1mm Wind: W 22kph Betting: Collingwood $1.30 Melbourne $3.50

SUMMARY
Collingwood has lost its past five games – its worst run since 2005-06 – and although you'd expect the Pies to have won one or two of those encounters, each defeat was against a difficult opponent. There will be no such excuse against the Demons, who have won just five games this season. A Pies win will keep them in the hunt for an unlikely finals berth. There will be enormous interest in the performances of both side's young key forwards – Melbourne's Jesse Hogan and Collingwood's Darcy Moore, who bagged five goals last week in just his third AFL game.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R10, 2015, Collingwood 17.8 (110) d Melbourne 13.7 (85) at the MCG
2. R12, 2014, Collingwood 8.13 (61) d Melbourne 3.10 (28) at the MCG
3. R11, 2013, Collingwood 17.20 (122) d Melbourne 5.9 (39) at the MCG
4. R11, 2012, Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Melbourne 13.9 (87) at the MCG
5. R12, 2011, Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Melbourne 6.5 (41) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. How fortunes change. When they met in round 10, Pies spearhead Travis Cloke bagged 7.0 and Adam Oxley starred as a loose man in defence with 30 possessions and 14 marks. Cloke is now sidelined and Oxley was subbed out last week.
2. The Pies have lost five games in a row, which they haven’t done since they lost the last eight games of 2005 and their 2006 season-opener.
3. The Demons are ranked last for inside 50s with only 43.3 a game, while the Magpies are ranked fifth with 51.9.
4. No team uses the interchange more than Collingwood, which averages 113 rotations a game. Melbourne is ranked equal 10th with 107.
5. Collingwood has won its past five games against Melbourne, and nine of the past 10. The Demons' only premiership points against the Pies since 2008 came from a draw in 2010.
6. Pies skipper Scott Pendlebury (652.4 points) has lost his No.1 mantle in the Official AFL Player Ratings to Freo superstar Nat Fyfe (657.9).

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley. His team was better than gallant against the might of Hawthorn and Fremantle – many believe the Pies should have won both games – but a sixth straight loss, particularly to a battling Melbourne, would raise concern. 'Bucks' needs to get his boys over the line before defeat becomes a habit.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 20 points