Round 17
Sunday July 26, 1:10pmCollingwood v Western Bulldogs Etihad Fox Footy 1:00pm Weather: Min 9 Max 11 Chance of rain 90%: 1-5mm Wind: WSW 33kph Betting: Collingwood $1.62 Western Bulldogs $2.30 |
That game is against the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium on Sunday. The Dogs are another young and improving side that themselves have been tested at times this season. They sit one win above the Pies in 6th place, with an inferior percentage to Collingwood. To say this game is important for both teams is a massive understatement. The Magpies can’t afford to drop a fifth game in a row while the Dogs don’t want to lose their second in a row following the loss to Geelong last week. It’s almost certain that the winner of this game will finish ahead of the loser and that will be absolutely vital in determining if either of these two clubs play finals.
Recent form between the two doesn’t give a great insight into what may happen with the Pies winning three of the last four regular season games but they’ve only clashed once in each of the past 4 seasons. The Dogs did beat Collingwood at Etihad Stadium both in the pre season (by a big margin) and in round 13 last season but the Pies won the two previous encounters at this venue. Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs go into this game knowing a win will set them up for a finals spot while a loss will severely hurt their ambitions.
PREVIOUS FORM
Last weekend it seemed the Magpies bubble burst a bit. With Jamie Elliott and Taylor Adams not available the Pies went in as under dogs yet again against one of the in form sides of the competition, the West Coast Eagles. The Pies started well enough but were dominated for most of the last 3 quarters and eventually went down by 31 points. Of course their cause wasn’t helped when key forward Travis Cloke was subbed out of the game only minutes in with a calf injury. Prior to that the Pies had been brave even though they’d lost the previous 3 games. The efforts against Fremantle and Hawthorn were applauded by all but with no wins and a mounting injury list this last month has hurt the Pies immensely.
Last weekend the Western Bulldogs finals hopes took a bit of a knock also. After four wins in a row against weaker opposition the Dogs travelled down to Geelong and most expected them to account for a struggling Geelong side missing star midfielder Joel Selwood. But the Dogs were never really in it and despite fighting back late to only lose by 8 points they went down to a side that probably won’t play finals themselves. The Bulldogs form hasn’t been great really, it took a massive last quarter to dispose of the lowly Gold Coast Suns while previous scrappy wins over Carlton, St Kilda and Brisbane weren’t impressive. But they were wins, and for a developing side like the Bulldogs every win counts.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Some Collingwood fans are shouting “deja vu” from the rooftop as the Magpies 2015 season seems to be eerily following the same direction of 2014. Last year the Pies were 8-3 at the half way mark before injuries, form and off field disruptions saw them take a fall out of finals contention. The past 4 weeks have that feeling about it, and while three of those losses were to genuine top 4 teams the rising injury toll is casting the bigger shadow. The loss of Cloke and Elliott for up to a month is the biggest blow of all. They had been covering the absence of Reid, Macaffer, Freeman, Ramsay and Sinclair but to lose their only two quality forwards is a back breaker indeed. The main problem is there’s not too much in terms of backup in terms of forwards. Darcy Moore has massive potential but is still a first year player, Patrick Karnezis hasn’t performed well when given a chance and Corey Gault has also been unimpressive in the senior games he’s played. Senior coach Nathan Buckley and his staff have a real task on their hands to somehow construct a forward line that is capable of kicking a winning score against the Bulldogs.
The mounting injury list meant that the Magpies VFL side went around with a limited amount of senior listed players but there were a few who put their hands up in the win over Frankston. Sam Dwyer, Jonathon Marsh, Matthew Scharenberg and the aforementioned Karnezis and Moore all pushed their case for selection. One interesting player to watch was big American Mason Cox. The 211cm ruckman was arguably the VFL Magpies best player and is showing massive improvement in just his first season in the system. There is also some good news on the injury front with Tyson Goldsack, Ben Reid, Corey Gault, Tony Armstrong and Ben Sinclair all likely to return this weekend. Of those returning players only Goldsack will be in senior contention though.
The loss of Cloke and Elliott and the absence of Adams for one more week really does hurt the Pies chances of winning this game but there is little doubt that the opposition they face this weekend is a step down from anything they’ve come up against in the last month.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Not many expected the Bulldogs to be fighting for a place in the 8 this season. In the off season the club under went plenty of on field and off field changes including the loss of Ryan Griffen and Shaun Higgins. With the loss in experience most tipped the Dogs to stagnate but they’ve proved plenty wrong so far in 2015. To sit in 6th place with a 9-6 win/loss record and have their finals destiny in their own hands has been impressive. It hasn’t been all easy though with Tom Liberatore and Clay Smith suffering long term injuries and the recent news that Koby Stevens will miss 6-8 weeks with a stress fracture of the heel. Now most can see what the Bulldogs internally always thought, that they are going places rather quickly.
There’s been a myth about the Bulldogs for a while now that they are a fast ball movement team that struggles to win their own ball. Nothing can be further from the truth. This Bulldogs team under the tutelage of Luke Beveridge thrives on the contest and it’s midfield obviously leads the way there. The loss of arguably the best contested ball winner in the competition in Tom Liberatore should have slowed their clearance rate down but even without him the Bulldogs win their own ball. They rank 5th for contested possessions and 7th for clearances which is remarkable given Liberatore’s absence and the loss of Ryan Griffen. Also they have achieved this without a consistent or dominant ruck combination with Will Minson having a below average year for his high standards. Having Wallis, Bontempelli, McRae, Dalhaus and Picken has made the Dogs into one of the best clearance teams in the league. It’s an area Collingwood excel in also so it will be a battle royale around the contests on Sunday for sure.
For years now the Bulldogs have been trying to build a forward line that could stand up against the best defences in the AFL under extreme pressure. While this current forward structure is still a work in progress you can see that they are on their way to becoming a very dangerous attack indeed. The Dogs obviously made a huge investment in former number 1 pick Tom Boyd and are currently developing Jack Redpath to be his partner in the future. Tory Dickson has improved immensely this season and has added another element to the Dogs attack that most didn’t expect. They run into a Magpies defense that has held up well under extreme pressure in recent weeks but did crack a bit against the Eagles last week. This isn’t the area of the ground that the Bulldogs look to exploit teams in yet but they’ll have to be efficient going inside 50 on Sunday to beat the Pies.
Surprisingly the Bulldogs backline doesn’t rank too high for average rebounds out of the defensive 50 area. With the likes of Wood, Murphy, Boyd, Roughead and Johannisen you would think they’d be one of the best attacking defences in the league. Defensively the Dogs have been fairly good so far in 2015 with only 4 opposition teams breaking the 100 point barrier against them. Dale Morris has had some luck with injury for once and last week played his 200th game. He’s a main stay of this defense for sure. This Sunday they come up against a decimated Magpies forward line and this has to be the area of the game that the Dogs dominate if they are to win. Collingwood is likely to rely on Jesse White and a cast of fill ins so if there’s one week where the Bulldogs defense should be on top it’s this week vs the Pies.
The Bulldogs enter Sunday’s game knowing a win and they are well on their way to becoming a finals side once again. They get to host the Magpies on a ground that the Pies don’t like but that the Dogs call home and play some of their best football at. The loss of Stevens hurts but is off set by the Magpies injury woes for sure. The Bulldogs would have been disappointed with their effort and execution versus Geelong but back at home you’d expect they’d play a lot better under the roof.
TIP
There’s two possibilities as to the type of game we will get on Sunday. Either it will be a high scoring, free flowing affair and the Bulldogs will win rather easily, or more then likely it will be a scrappy, contested game that will mirror recent games from these two. Collingwood know going in that they are going to struggle to kick a winning score, so they have to figure out a way to keep the scores low. The Dogs last two games at Etihad were low scoring affairs in which the under dog team almost stole victory against the Bulldogs.
If Collingwood can somehow create a game that is similar to those last two Bulldogs games at Etihad then they can win this game. The absence of Cloke, Elliott and Adams hurts their chances but with the level of opposition down on what they’ve been facing lately they can win this game.
MAGPIES BY 9 POINTS.
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