Collingwood v Geelong
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 17 Chance of rain 60%: < 1mm Wind: WNW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.65 Geelong $2.25 |
For fans wanting to come to the game, make sure you try getting there early as the A-League Semi-Final is also on, along with a rugby match at AAMI Park.
It’s a big game for both sides. Geelong has had a slow start to the year, only winning two of its opening five matches. A win this weekend will even the ledger for the Cats, which will be a decent achievement considering the tough draw they have had.
On the other hand, the Magpies have jumped to second spot on the ladder following a thumping 75-point win against Carlton last round. But it must be noted that only one of Collingwood’s four wins has come against a side that made the top eight last year. The scalp of Geelong would be a big one for Collingwood and is also important as the Magpies have a tough draw to come. Banking wins early is vital.
On the surface, many have been quick to jump of the Geelong bandwagon and claim that the dynasty is finally over. It is important to remember that the Cats have had an incredibly tough draw to start the year, playing predominantly sides that finished in the top eight last season.
It is going to take some time to really assess where the Cats are at as they have some winnable games still to come. On the other hand, they have been convincingly beaten in their three losses this year, and only just got across the line against Gold Coast and Richmond. It’s definitely not the same Geelong that we have known over the last decade, and the club has identified that it needs to start regenerating the list with so many veterans to retire in the coming years. Geelong is doing the right thing by blooding new players, but you would assume it would surely have some short-term consequences.
Collingwood is flying, and a large component of this good form is attributable to the young talent in the side. It was a clinical performance by the Pies last weekend, and it has been some time since I’ve seen such fluidity in ball movement and accountability through the midfield. The forward pressure is also back to its manic best. While it is still to be seen whether Collingwood can perform to this level against the best sides, there is no doubt that it has proven it is still a force to be reckoned with.
The weather at this stage is expected to be 17 degrees with a high chance of rain. Historically, both of these sides have been good in wet weather, although Collingwood this year has been particularly strong. In any event, conditions should be good for football.
Recent History
These two sides have enjoyed some classic battles over the last few years. In the past five years, each side has had five wins each, with three of the past four games decided by less than two goals.
Historically, Geelong has been a very fast moving side, and Collingwood has had the ability to shut it down the run and cause turnovers. I feel the tide has turned slightly, however, with Collingwood moving the ball quicker in 2015 and generating a lot of run off half back.
These sides last met in round three last season, where it was the Cats who triumphed in a thriller by 11 points. Mitch Duncan and Joel Selwood polled the three and two Brownlow votes respectively, each picking up 30 disposals, while Jamie Elliott was a standout, kicking five goals which earned him the one vote. Tom Hawkins was also dominant with four goals, several coming in the crucial last quarter.
At the Selection Table
It will be an interesting week at selection for both sides.
Collingwood enjoyed a win at both AFL and VFL level. Therefore, coach Nathan Buckley has some tough decisions to make considering there are a lot of players demanding a spot in the senior side.
Paul Seedsman has been in electric form but was subbed off last round with a glute complaint and has been slow to recover. The club has stated that the substitution was precautionary, but Seedsman has a history of hip problems so the club may be cautious. He will undergo a fitness test on Thursday to determine his fitness. Jackson Ramsey also pulled up tight and faces a fitness test.
At VFL level, the likes of Jordan De Goey, Nathan Freeman, Alex Fasolo and Jarrod Witts continue to put their names up. Witts may be a chance to come into the side to give ruck support to Brodie Grundy. Tim Broomhead is also available after missing last week due to illness. If Seedsman misses, then Broomhead is the logical replacement for him due to his pace and footskills.
In other injury news, Steele Sidebottom (thumb) and Ben Reid (soft tissues) are progressing well from their respective concerns. Clinton Young suffered a minor hamstring injury last week in the VFL and it remains to be seen whether he plays this week, while Levi Greenwood and Ben Sinclair remain some time away.
Turning the attention back onto Geelong, and the selection panel has a few decisions to make this week. James Kelly is the only forced change following his sickening injury last weekend (an injury I’d rather not discuss!). In his place a number of rookies such as Dean Gore or Jake Kolodjashnij may be in line for a debut, while Nakia Cockatoo was also prominent in the VFL last weekend.
Mathew Stokes will also press for selection his week but still remains doubtful, as does Andrew Mackie. Jimmy Bartel is also a number of weeks away following his knee injury.
The main interest, though, will be how Geelong sets up its forward line and ruck division.
Mitch Clark should be available after he missed with a foot complaint last weekend. But whether he comes in for Shane Kersten or Josh Walker will be a tough call as both were impressive last weekend. Rhys Stanley should also be available for selection, but may find it tough to get a gig with Dawson Simpson impressing against Richmond. Hamish McIntosh suffered another injury setback at VFL level so is no longer in the mix.
Focus on Collingwood
Much hype has been made about Collingwood’s youthful side in 2015. While the team is undoubtedly inexperienced in terms of AFL games (more than half of the side has played less than 50 games), it is also important to note that there are no first year players presently in the side, and only one second-year player (Tom Langdon).
It means that the majority of the youth in the side have been in the AFL system for three-to-five years and fitness base has reached the requisite level. They have also had a number of pre-seasons in the gym so size isn’t an issue. It means Collingwood has such an even contribution across the field, with everyone doing their job. The Magpies had 15 individual goal-kickers last round, which must surely be a club record.
It’s definitely an exciting time for the Collingwood football club, because the majority of the playing list is approaching the peak of their careers. The excitement continues considering there are still 6 first round draft picks not in the side and all have been impressing at VFL level.
You can see the huge improvement in the side in a number of areas.
In particular, Collingwood is leading the competition is contested possession and is ranked very highly for inside 50s. The disposal efficiency has also improved dramatically. The one area Collingwood is still struggling is clearances, ranked seventeenth in the competition. Fortunately for the Magpies, the only side below them in this area is Geelong.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Scott Pendlebury – A special mention this week to Pendlebury who has overtaken Gary Ablett’s mantle as the number one player in the competition based on the Official AFL Player Rankings. This comes off the back of a best on ground performance against Carlton last week where he had 32 disposals, two goals and nine marks. It was interesting to see Pendlebury spend a lot of time up forward last week. This adds another string to his bow as he had only kicked one goal so far this year prior this last week’s match. As a forward, he not only has the ability to kick goals, but he is very unselfish and sets a lot of teammates up in better position.
Taylor Adams – Adams is really starting to repay the investment Collingwood made on him, stepping up in the inexperienced Collingwood midfield to take a leading role. His averages 27.5 disposals and four tackles per game. His role is crucial because he has stepped into the void left by Luke Ball last season and is squaring off against the opposition’s best midfielders. His disposal efficiency has historically been his Achilles heel, but he has definitely improved in this area, and will continue to do so as he grows in confidence.
Jack Crisp – I’ve spoken about Crisp in recent weeks, but he deserves another mention this time after yet another strong performance. In the last two weeks he has taken the big scalps of Chris Judd and Jobe Watson as he settles into a tagging role. The importance of Crisp’s role in the side is magnified by the fact that he is also winning a lot of the football and kicking goals. He had 26 disposals, eight tackles and kicked a goal last week, while his opponent, Judd, only had 22 disposals. Crisp is a top endurance athlete with good pace, but he also has a strong ability to play on the inside. Collingwood only had nine centre clearances last week, but Crisp was responsible for five of them. His foot skills have improved as well, and his left foot becomes becoming a weapon.
Focus on Geelong
While the Cats have definitely had a tough fixture to start to the year, they need to urgently address a number of areas if they are to get the season back on track. It was a good win last weekend against Richmond, and it was the best I have seen them move the ball so far in 2015.
But Geelong is the lowest ranked side in the competition for both contested football and clearances. In recent years, they may have escaped with statistics like this due to the electrifying ball movement off half back. But with Kelly, Mackie and Bartel out of the side, the experience down back is not what it once was. It means they haven’t been getting the same rebound out of defensive 50 and have been getting heavily scored against as a result.
The obvious issue for Geelong has been finding support for captain Joel Selwood, who has often had to play a lone hand through the middle. The coach would have been impressed last week with guys like Mitch Duncan and Josh Caddy, who got more involved. Steve Johnson is also building his fitness base and should return to his best form quickly. With Bartel and Kelly are out of the side, the Cats definitely need the likes of Caddy to keep making an impact through the middle if they are to compete with the better sides.
Player Focus - Geelong
Mitch Duncan – Duncan polled the three Brownlow votes when these sides last met and returned to ominous form last week with 29 disposals and two goals. The Cats desperately needed him to step up last weekend and he responded with a top effort against the Tigers. If this form continues, he has all the potential to be a real star of the competition as he has good skills and can kick goals. It’s also up to other players like Cameron Guthrie, Josh Caddy, Steven Motlop and Jordan Murdoch to also step up as Duncan has.
Mark Blicavs – On the eve of his 50th game last week, his coach labelled him a ‘star’. It was a big call for a guy who is still very much learning the ropes in the game considering his background is in athletics. But Blicavs justified his coach’s comments on the weekend with a very strong performance. He is probably the most difficult match-up in the AFL considering he has an endurance level which is beyond any other player and has the pace to match. He also stands over 200cm tall so can ruck or play forward. Last weekend, he played in the ruck (picking up 15 hitouts), but also played at times as a ruck-rover or wingman. It just gives Geelong so much flexibility to know they can use Blicavs in a variety of roles, which allows the team to play an extra tall or alternatively an extra small depending on the conditions.
Tom Hawkins – It has been a difficult start to the year for Hawkins, who has had to cope with the passing of his mother. He hit the scoreboard last week with three goals, but only managed eight disposals. In fact, he is only averaging eight disposals and two goals per game so far this year, which is down on his usual output. The one thing we know is that he loves to play Collingwood, and usually saves his best for these clashes. He will get the match-up on the in-form Nathan Brown and it will be a defining one. If the Cats give Hawkins enough opportunities, he will definitely worry the Collingwood backline, which, in general, is still inexperienced.
The Wrap Up
This is a really hard game to tip as Geelong’s form is still unknown, and Collingwood is yet to claim a really big scalp other than Essendon. I think it is far too early to write off Geelong, but I do have concerns about its midfield. To my mind, Collingwood can hopefully gain an edge in this regard, although the potential absence of Paul Seedsman could be a factor.
I think the Cats need to match the Pies in contested disposal, as I think the weight of numbers will tell in the end if the Magpies are able to lock the ball inside their forward line. The Geelong defence is still very solid and disciplined, but may struggle to contain the amount of goal kickers Collingwood can throw up there.
If Collingwood maintains its frenetic pressure and also continues to get the even contribution of goal kickers, then I think it will win this game. But I’m always cautious of the Cats, and they will have some confidence back following the strong performance against the Tigers in round five.
Pies by 15
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