Collingwood v N. Melbourne
MCG 7mate / Fox Sports 3:00pm Weather: Min 9 Max 13 Chance of rain 90%: 1-5mm Wind: WNW 27kph Betting: Collingwood $2.15 North Melbourne $1.70 |
Collingwood sits in fifth spot on the ladder following a comprehensive win against Gold Coast. North Melbourne, though, is sitting precariously in twelfth spot. But only one win separates the two sides, highlighting how even the competition is this year.
It makes Sunday’s game a genuine eight pointer, as the result will have significant consequences for the fortunes of these two sides. North Melbourne is a genuine top four contender this year, but may find itself two games out of the eight if it loses. On the other hand, Collingwood could be two games clear in the eight if it wins, or back in the pack if it loses.
It is still very hard to assess how good these two teams are right now. Collingwood has surprised many but is yet to record a victory against a side currently in the top eight. In each of the last three rounds, Collingwood has had significant concentration lapses which has led its opposition piling on goals. This is upsetting considering Collingwood has prided itself on defence so far in 2015, as well as tackling pressure.
North Melbourne has had flashes of brilliance, but has also been on the receiving end of some massive losses, including a 73-point loss to Fremantle last round. This is concerning for a side that genuinely considers itself to be in a premiership window. While injuries have been a factor, the Kangaroos’ depth is good enough to provide cover and there is no doubt that some results so far this season have been disappointing.
Collingwood will be wondering which North Melbourne will turn up on Sunday. The Kangaroos’ best is still very good, but the worst is very bad as well. Collingwood is the sort of opponent that North Melbourne should be beating if it considers itself a genuine contender. On the other hand, the Roos would be a great scalp for the Magpies who are still really trying to re-establish themselves as a top eight side.
Collingwood has had a fairly comfortable draw so far this season, but has a tricky road ahead, so it must bank the wins now. The Pies will be considering this a big opportunity, as the Kangaroos are far from full strength and are battling for form. It’s a good time to play the Roos, and an opportunity to challenge an evenly matched side.
Recent History
These sides have not met since round five last year, where the Magpies put the game away in the opening half. They eventually won the game by 35 points. A four goal first half by Travis Cloke was the highlight, yet it was not enough to earn him a Brownlow vote.
Instead, it was Steele Sidebottom with 34 disposals and a goal who polled the three votes, while Dane Swan polled two votes with 35 disposals.
Alex Fasolo also earned one vote with 32 disposals, playing an unfamiliar role across half back. Brent Harvey was North Melbourne’s best with 29 disposals.
At the Selection Table
It should be a fairly settled week at the selection table for Collingwood after a convincing win against Gold Coast last week.
Jack Frost will face a fitness test following the corked hamstring he received in the third quarter last week, but will be relieved that he did not sustain a significant injury. He is considered a solid chance to play.
Someone may have to make way for Alan Toovey who will also press his case for selection following a minor knee injury in round seven. Finding a spot may prove difficult though.
The VFL side had a bye last round, but Ben Kennedy, Jonathon Marsh and Sam Dwyer will be right in the mix for selection as well. Marsh, in particular, may be the best suited replacement if Frost fails a fitness test. Jackson Ramsey is still probably another week away from his shin injury, while Ben Reid and Clinton Young should make a return to the VFL side this weekend.
Turning the attention to North Melbourne, and a few changes will be forecast following the heavy loss last weekend. Andrew Swallow and Ben Brown will press for selection, but both are likely to miss another week. This may give Majak Daw his opportunity after he impressed at VFL last week. Dan Currie was also dominant with five goals and 35 hitouts, but the Roos typically like to leave Todd Goldstein as the sole ruckman. Aaron Mullett has also worked his way back from injury and may be on the selection radar.
North Melbourne will be sweating on the availability of Brown and Swallow, especially with injuries to star players such as Daniel Wells, Nick Dal Santo and Nathan Grima out of the side. In positive news, Leigh Adams should return to the VFL side this weekend in his bid to return to senior footy.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies are ranked first for contested football and second for inside 50s, but it has been concentration lapses which have been most costly.
Despite the comprehensive win last weekend, Gold Coast was allowed four unanswered goals in the second quarter to even up the match. In the previous two rounds, an eight goal second quarter to Richmond blew the game wide open, while a seven goal opening term to Geelong in round six put the game out of reach very early.
It’s hard to read too much into the win against the undermanned Gold Coast last round, but it was good to see a high disposal efficiency rating, and also good ball use going inside 50. In particular, the forward line looked very dangerous with Jesse White, Jamie Elliott, Alex Fasolo and Scott Pendlebury all chipping in with multiple goals. It took the heat off Cloke who was able to roam the field.
While all Collingwood fans want to see Cloke kicking goals, it did make the forward line look much more unpredictable with Cloke playing a higher role.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Scott Pendlebury – The skipper played a perfect match last round in his 200th game milestone. He had 35 disposals, seven marks and kicked three goals. It was interesting to see him start the game as a forward. It led to speculation from the commentators that he is carrying an injury, but he covered the ground quite well. Regardless, it is a valuable weapon for Buckley to be able to utilise Pendlebury in the forward line. At 191cm, he is a difficult match-up, and he is also so smart with his ball use. On top of his three goals, he also set up countless others. It will be interesting to see whether he continues to spend more time up forward this week considering North Melbourne has a good midfield.
Steele Sidebottom – There is no doubt that the Pies have missed Sidebottom considerably so far this season. He didn’t miss a beat in his return game last round, picking up 32 disposals. His disposal efficiency was down, which is probably due to the fact he has missed so much football so far this season. But he is Collingwood’s best two-way runner, and often the first one to get back in defence to help out. He then offers so much offensively as he just does not stop running.
Jesse White – For mine, Jesse has had a patchy season so far, but he was very good last week with four goals. I have felt all season that White is very close to putting together a big game. His contested marking has improved, and his work rate has continued to improve. He just hasn’t had his radar on in front of goal, which is an area in which he is typically pretty good. He is not always a big possession winner, so it is just important that White keeps making the most of his opportunities and also keeps his work rate up. The Magpies are screaming out for talls to support Cloke, so White’s form is crucial.
Focus on North Melbourne
It’s really hard to know where North Melbourne sits right now. When you look through the list, it is really even and hard to find too many holes. There is probably just a lack of star power, which is magnified with Wells and Dal Santo out of the side. The Kangaroos have also struggled in contested footy, ranking 15th in the competition. This is a surprise considering the midfield possesses names such as Swallow, Ben Cunnington and Jack Ziebell. Unlike Collingwood, North Melbourne has also struggled to bring the ball inside 50, ranking 14th in this area.
I do not think these stats count for too much, as North Melbourne is the sort of side that can flick a switch and turn things on. Consistency has long been an issue for the Kangaroos. Nonetheless, they should be a formidable opponent this weekend as they have a forward line that will trouble Collingwood, and also a backline which should hold its talls. The Roos just need more potency out of the midfield.
Player Focus – North Melbourne
Shaun Higgins – It seems the move to North Melbourne has done wonders for Higgins who has really strung some really good football together. He definitely adds things the Kangaroos have lacked, such as pace and x-factor. His skills are so good, and he is also averaging 1.5 goals a game which is a good return for a midfield/forward. Importantly, he is a match winner, which was proven in the thrilling win against Essendon in round seven.
Brent Harvey – The evergreen 37-year-old is yet again having a terrific season, averaging 24 disposals. He is actually spending a lot more time in defence, using his run and carry to create counter-attacks. This has meant a reduction in goals (he has only kicked five so far this season), but his impact on games is still profound.
Todd Goldstein – Goldstein has claims to be the competition’s best ruckman and would most likely be the frontrunner for the All-Australian ruck position at this stage of the season. While his disposal figures have been down in the last three rounds, he is still averaging 38 hitouts a week (number one in the competition). Importantly, his hitouts typically are to advantage. He is also an elite runner, and covers the ground well. He battled manfully against Aaron Sandilands last round, and faces the inexperienced combination of Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts this round. The young Magpie ruckmen will need to team up to counter Goldstein’s influence. Collingwood has struggled from centre clearances over recent weeks, so they can’t afford Goldstein to dominate.
The Wrap Up
It’s a huge match for both sides and it is an impossible one to tip. Collingwood has a fairly good record against North Melbourne but has a much younger side on paper than it has in the past.
A cold and wet day is forecast, which should suit the Magpies. However, it is a game that North Melbourne simply must win to keep itself in touch with the top eight. Both sides are coming off interstate matches, but an eight-day break should mean that fatigue is a non-factor.
As is usually the case, the match will likely be won and lost in the midfield. Both sides have good forward lines, so the side that can get ascendency in the middle should win this game. Conversion and efficiency will also be vital, as either side can ill afford to waste their opportunities.
I think Collingwood’s midfield has a nice versatility about it now, and may worry North. But that said, Goldstein may have a huge influence on the game. If Jarrad Waite and Drew Petrie get enough opportunities, then they may eventually prove too big for the Collingwood defenders to manage. Especially if Frost is injured.
Pies by 12
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