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| Jordan De Goey appears ready to build on his debut season in 2016. |
My first edition this season relates to the clash between Sydney and Collingwood at the SCG this Saturday night. The game was recently moved from ANZ stadium, where Collingwood has a dominant record over Sydney. However, these sides last met at the SCG in round twenty last year and the match was very even. Nathan Buckley said during the week that his side won't hold any fear playing at the SCG, and I for one believe him.
It's always dangerous to read too much into pre-season form, but there is no doubt the Magpies looked really sharp throughout the NAB Challenge, winning all three matches. Sydney on the other hand were a bit up and down in the pre-season tournament, but finished with a good win over Carlton which would have boosted confidence. Both sides were able to introduce new players into the side and would be pleased with what achieved in the NAB Challenge series.
It's always a great game when these two sides meet, so let's delve into this week's preview!
The last meeting
As alluded to earlier, the last meeting between Collingwood and Sydney was in round 20, 2015, where the Magpies were gallant but were eventually overrun by Sydney to the tune of 11 points. It was the final nail in the coffin for the Magpies in 2015, with all finals hopes fading after the loss. Quite frankly, the Pies looked the better side for large parts of the night, but just couldn't capitalise on opportunities and momentum, kicking 10 goals, 16 behinds on the night.
Tom Mitchell and Josh Kennedy dominated through the middle with 41 and 35 disposals respectively. For the Magpies, a rampant Dane Swan turned back the clock and picked up 39 touches to poll one Brownlow vote, whilst Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Taylor Adams had 31 touches each.
Whilst both sides will look markedly different on Saturday night, the overall contest is again likely to be determined through the middle, where Mitchell and Kennedy could again prove the difference.
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| The games two leading possession getters, Dane Swan and Tom Mitchell, clash in round 20 at the SCG. |
At the Selection Table
Round 1
COLLINGWOOD v SWANS
Saturday March 26, 7:25pm SCG 7mate 7:00pm Fox Footy 7:20pm Weather: Min 19 Max 25 Chance of rain 40%: < 1mm Wind: ENE 22kph Betting: Collingwood $2.30 Swans $1.62 |
Starting with the Magpies, a hamstring injury sustained by Travis Varcoe at Monday's training session was a massive blow after he was the standout performer over the NAB Challenge. I suspect he will miss the standard three to four weeks. Varcoe will join Jamie Elliott, Jeremy Howe and Tyson Goldsack who have all also been ruled out for round one.
In more positive news, Ben Reid seems to have overcome his niggling calf injury and is available for selection. The question for Buckley will simply be whether to risk him after playing no NAB Challenge games. The absence of his brother Sam Reid for the Swans may mean the Pies opt to go smaller in defence anyway with Jack Frost and Nathan Brown holding the key posts. Howe and Goldsack are also available for selection but will need to regain match fitness through the VFL before being considered for senior selection. Tim Broomhead is also still recovering from a shoulder injury and is unlikely to be available for selection this week.
Elliott, Varcoe and Matt Scharenberg remain the only real longer term injuries, which means the list is in pretty good health ahead of round one. However, the absence of these players may leave the forward line lacking a bit of spark, and may allow someone like Dane Swan to need to spend more time forward.
Turning the focus onto the Swans, and there are also significant injury concerns ahead of round one. Ben McGlynn and Ted Richards will be doubtful to play after very limited pre-seasons, whilst Jarrad McVeigh, Gary Rohan and Sam Reid have all been ruled out. The absence of these players is compounded by the off-season retirements of Rhyce Shaw, Adam Goodes and Mike Pyke, along with the departure of Lewis Jetta.
It could mean that as many as eight new faces are in line to be included into the side that lost in the Semi Final last year. It's unlike the Swans to field such an inexperienced side, but it will be an opportunity to see a few fresh faces, likely to be led by academy recruit Callum Mills. Michael Talia could be in line to replace Ted Richards if he is ruled out, whilst Tom Papley and Nic Newman may have done enough to earn their spots if elevated from the rookie list. George Hewett also showed some really good signs in the NAB Challenge as well.
The other big story at the selection table will be the return of Lance 'Buddy' Franklin after he was forced to sit out the finals series with personal issues. His return is a huge boost for the Swans, and his final NAB Challenge game against the Blues was dominant. Luke Parker also returns to the side after a knee injury sustained in the round 20 game against Collingwood ruled him out for the remainder of the 2015 season.
Focus on Collingwood
Whilst the Magpies are missing some big names, the midfield is in really good nick and is one of the deepest in the competition. The off-season additions of Adam Treloar and James Aish add to an already strong group. Combine this the continued development of players such as Jordan De Goey, Jack Crisp and Adams, and there is such a good core of players to take over from the likes of Swan, Pendlebury and Sidebottom who may be asked to play different roles this year.
An area for improvement in 2015 is Collingwood's capacity to play four-quarter football. In a number of games last season, the Magpies lapsed for periods of the game. The same issue arose during the NAB Challenge. In the games against Geelong and Western Bulldogs, the Magpies found themselves a long way behind before massive third quarter comebacks. Consistency across four quarters must be a huge focus.
However, it was good to see Collingwood hold on in three very close matches over the NAB Challenge series. In 2015, Collingwood's season was undone by some very narrow losses, so to see the Magpies scrape through in these games gives me a lot of confidence. It's a sign that the younger players are maturing.
Player Focus
Taylor Adams – Adams has really matured over the last two off-seasons, and was rewarded this year with elevation to the leadership group. It is clear from his NAB form that he has had a massive pre-season. He finished 2015 as a very good player, but I have no doubt that he will finish 2016 as one of the competition's best inside midfielders. He has become much more consistent, and has put a lot of work into his kicking skills which did let him down in his younger years. He'll be tested this week against the strong Sydney midfield.
Scott Pendlebury – The skipper also looks to have had a very solid pre-season and will be a vital player yet again in 2016. With so much depth through the midfield, Pendlebury is expected to spend more time across half back, as he did against Geelong in round twenty two last season. Throughout the NAB Challenge, Collingwood at times struggled to clear the ball outside of defensive 50, or made critical skill errors which led to goals. Pendlebury's experience and elite decision making will be used in defence to help steady the ship. His ability to play down back though will depend on the younger midfielders stepping up to fill the void.
Jordan De Goey – I tend to be very conservative with my analysis of second-year players as it is often the most difficult year of a player's career. However, De Goey is showing no early signs of the second year blues as he was one of Collingwood's best performed throughout the NAB Challenge series. He is so clean around the contests and reads the play beautifully from the ruckman's hands. He needs to clean up his disposal going inside 50, but in general his skill level is very high. De Goey was used as a sub a lot in 2015, and was also forced to spend a lot of time up forward. He looks set to be unleashed through the midfield this year, and the abolition of the substitute rule will work to his advantage.
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| Second-year midfielder Jordan De Goey has shown impressive form through the 2016 NAB Challenge. |
The Magpies have timed Adam Treloar's run into round one perfectly after off-season groin surgery threatened to delay his start. Treloar was brilliant against the Bulldogs in the last NAB Challenge match, and seems a certain starter for Saturday's game. He adds pace to the Collingwood midfield and a harder edge.
The injury to Varcoe may open the door for James Aish, although he may be forced to work his way into the senior team through the VFL. The other player of note is Corey Gault. Whilst Gault is not a new face to the Collingwood side, he has been promoted off the rookie list ahead of round one and looks to have cemented his spot after a strong NAB Challenge. Jeremy Howe should come into the side in the next week or two as well.
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| James Aish and Adam Treloar are two of Collingwood's new faces in 2016. |
Focus on Sydney
The Swans still possess the number one ranked midfield in the competition according to Champion Data. The likes of Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell, Kieran Jack, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery make up such a strong midfield with so much grunt around stoppages. However, the loss of Lewis Jetta and the injury to Gary Rohan means the Swans are missing a bit of pace and X-Factor. Nonetheless, with such a dominant midfield and a guy by the name of Buddy up forward, the Swans will still be a force to be reckoned with this season. After dropping out in straight sets in last year's finals series, the Swans will be keen to make an early statement.
It may be up to a few younger players though to step up to add some spark. Players such as Jake Lloyd, Zac Jones, Isaac Heeney, Brandan Jack and Callum Mills can really add to the depth of the side and add some spark. Otherwise, too much may be left to too few and it could be a difficult job to maintain a top four position.
The return of Buddy Franklin and Luke Parker will be a huge boost, whilst Kurt Tippett and Callum Sinclair should form a strong ruck division. The lack of run off half back may mean someone like Jack will need to go back into defence.
Player Focus
Kurt Tippett – I have been impressed by his pre-season and he will benefit from the return of Franklin and the addition of Sinclair. I'm expecting to see Tippett spend a lot more time in the ruck this season with the retirement of Pyke, which should add a new dimension to his game. He's looking really fit and will prove a handful for the Collingwood defence this weekend.
Josh Kennedy – Kennedy is one of the toughest and biggest midfielders in the competition and has a history of dominating against Collingwood. On the smaller SCG, winning the stoppages is vital and Kennedy is the master at this. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nathan Buckley lock down on Kennedy with someone like Levi Greenwood or Jack Crisp playing a tight tagging role. If Sydney is to win this game, Kennedy will likely play a pivotal role.
Luke Parker – Whilst Franklin's absence was a huge talking point last season, I think the injury to Luke Parker was just as significant to Sydney's fortunes in the finals. Parker is such a tough midfielder, but importantly kicks goals and takes strong marks. With such a deep midfield, I'm expecting Parker to spend a bit more time up forward to compliment the star talls. He is a difficult match-up wherever he plays, and his pre-season indicates that he is ready to take his game to yet another level.
New Faces
Callum Sinclair was a great recruit for the Swans last year as he can play in the ruck but is also a very competent forward. Given the removal of the sub rule, all ruckmen will now need to have the capacity to play forward, so Sinclair should prove highly valuable.
The other off-season recruit I am keen to see is Callum Mills. He didn't receive a lot of media hype leading into last year's draft because his destination was pretty much locked in months ahead of the draft. As a Sydney Swans Academy player, the Swans were always going to match any bid made on him. Mills has lived up to his promise in the NAB Challenge and has seemingly cemented his spot for round one. He looks a real player and is my early tip for the rising star.
The Wrap Up
As is often the case, this is a game that should be determined in the midfield. Both sides have really strong midfielders and it will be a case of some of the competition's best going head-to-head. The SCG is a very small ground with wide wings, which means run off half back can be really important. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Magpies select a few smaller runners off half back to try and break the game open.
Sydney goes into the game favourites, but mainly because the game is at the SCG and the Swans have a terrific record at this venue. I think the game is basically a 50/50 bet though given the changes to the Sydney line-up. With the Swans' injury list, I think Collingwood's depth is a bit stronger, although the late injury to Varcoe was a huge blow.
It's hard to stop Sydney however if all the midfielders fire and Franklin gets a lot of opportunities. He always enjoys playing Collingwood! The Magpies will need to contain Kennedy and Hannebery though the middle, and contain Buddy Franklin. Up the other end, there is enough fire power with Moore, Gault and Cloke all looking in good nick.
Collingwood by 22 points.
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